Trade, Live and Thrive

Monday, September 8, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Starry Highs 2 - Week 2 of September 2014.

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) EOM Chart (or) Month Chart: 1 candle = 1 month's price action

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) EOW Chart (or) Week Chart: 1 candle = 1 week's price action

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) EOD Chart (or) Day Chart: 1 candle = 1 day's price action

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Long Term Bullish Engulfing leans towards becoming a 3 outside up - see the last 3 Month candles #M1.
Evening Star possibility again apparent on the Weekly charts - last week this same pattern failed to evolve #W1.

Support & Resistance:

Index rising along EOD channel's top line, neatly takes support at the channel bottom and as studied last week. the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1.
5 EMA and 13 SMA, converge on the EOD #D1.

Moving Averages:

Bulls close the week above all the MAs we track on all screens.

Indicators:

RSI 13 meanders in the 60s #W2.
TSI continues holding, above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

Wrap:

Bears still control no screens, Index sticks to its new 2K+ levels .

Looking forward into this Week:

Patterns:

Possibility of another Evening Star formation (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) on the EOW exists #W1.
Bullish Engulfing on long term charts can evolve into a 3 outside up (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) - to be watched for until month end #M1.

Support & Resistance:

EOD channel Top #D1 and the ATH, are resistances.
The 13 SMA on the EOD (e.g. 1998 for Monday) is the Support Bulls would want to defend #D1.

Moving Averages:

Bullish deflection or Bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, imminent on the EOD #D1.

Indicators:

TSI holding above the Fibonacci level 76.4%, works for the Bulls #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls seek to defend the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1.
Bears look to continue to crack the EOD channel's bottom line #D1.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bulls Peak Again - Week 2 of September 2014.

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 05 Sept'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls hold the Peak for the second time #W2.
Gap between Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen flat and narrow #W2.
Gap between Senoku Span A-B flat #W3.

Wrap: Bulls hold the Peak again #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls look for new Highs #W2.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
Previous Highs are a strong resistance #W1.

Wrap: Bulls push for a breakout from these levels, Bears dig-in to defend the ATH zone, for the second time #W2.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls Star - Week 2 of September 2014.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 05 Sept'14

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 05 Sept'14

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 05 Sept'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Bulls kill last week's Evening Star Possibility with another ATH #W1.
Earlier week's 'Above the Stomach' Pattern, keeps the Bulls going #W1.

Support & Resistance:

Bulls keep above the 5 EMA on the EOD all week #D1.
Bears fails to defend the EOD channel top - previous (steeper) channel active now #M1

Moving Averages:

The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD stay bullishly crossed to give Bulls continued dominance of all screens #D1.

Indicators:

MACD and its MA are Bullishly Crossed - but MACD divergence to Price is huge #D2.
STS stopped by its resistance line - but remains in the over bought #W1.

Wrap:

Bulls dominate all screen and make another new High, Bears fail to defend earlier EOD channel top line #D1.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Patterns:

Earlier week's 'Above the Stomach' Pattern (Study links here, here or elsewhere) near the Highs, warrant a careful look #W1.
Throwback (study) of Price to last week's EOD channel top #D1 - to be watched to assess Bull strength.

Support & Resistance:

Support that the Bulls have to defend is the 5 EMA on the EOD ( 8068 for Monday) #D1.
Index faces resistance at the new EOD channel top line #D1.

Moving Averages:

Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are currently steady #D1.

Indicators:

STS slipping below the overbought, will work for the Bears #W1.

Wrap:

Bulls look to defend the the 5 EMA on the Day Chart and make new ATHs #D1.
Bears seek to defend the current ATH ( 8142) #D1.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bulls carry on - Week 2 of September 2014.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 05 Sept'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls keep above the Tenkan Sen and make new ATH #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap contracts #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap even #W2

Wrap: Bulls carry on, making new Highs while above the Tenkan Sen #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

The Chikou Span, keeping current altitude, will need a couple of months to meet the price-line #W1.
Bulls would seek to hold above the Tenkan Sen #W2.

Wrap: Bears hope to get the index below the Tenkan Sen, Bull focus is to keep above the Tenkan Sen to break the ATH #W2.

Sunday, September 7, 2014

The Wall on our Street

Glossary - Terms used in this Blog...

Wall or Settlement Price:

The Wall for any month, for the CNX Nifty, is the last half hour weighted average Price or approximately the EOD closing value of the last Thursday (THE settlement day) of the previous month.

Example :

Wall for November 2014.

The last Thursday AND settlement day for the previous month (i.e. October 2014) was 30th October 2014.

The EOD closing value for the Nifty on 30th October 2014, was 8169.

Wall for November 2014, is approximately 8171.

Likewise

Wall for September 2015, was approximately 7949.
Wall for October 2015, was approximately 7868.
Wall for November 2015, was approximately 8112.
Wall for December 2015, was approximately 7884.
Wall for January 2015, was approximately 7946.

Wall for August 2016, is approximately 8666.

Links below help us understand the relative importance of the 'Wall'.

Study links here, here or elsewhere.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.