Trade, Live and Thrive

Saturday, December 21, 2013

Say ...

Monday, December 16, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bears Cash in - Week 3 of December 2013.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 13 Dec'13

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 13 Dec'13

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 13 Dec'13

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Bullish 'Three Inside up' #M1, on the Long Term Charts kept November green - December honors are with Bears.

Support & Resistance:

Index fell out of Day Channel, Pulled back from Support to last week's Channel Bottom, and then crashed below the MVWAP 34 #D1.
MVWAP 34 on the EOD #D1 was the support Bears cracked last week to take the Short Term screen.

Moving Averages:

Bulls keep December candle clear of the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1.
EOD 5 EMA ends below the 13 SMA despite Bull attempts intra-week #D1.

Indicators:

RSI 13, manages to stay in the overbought #W2.
Month Chart Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.

Wrap:

Bears Cash in after spoiling the Bull Party - Bulls keep nose above 13 SMA on the EOW #W1..

Looking forward into this Week:

Patterns:

Long Term Chart's Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) #M1 - still active.

Support & Resistance:

200 SMA and EOD channel Bottom on the Short Term Chart are Support for the Bulls, while the 'All Time High' Line and the Channel Top #W1 are resistances.

Moving Averages:

Bulls need to get above the 5 EMA on the EOW (1785) to gain some traction #W1.
If a Bullish re-cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, happens this week, along with above would give Bulls direction going forward.

Indicators:

Stochastic 34 3 4 heading to the oversold, works for the Bears #D1

Wrap:

Bulls see life above 1785 and trust the 'Three Inside Up' #M1, helps make December green - Bears look to take the Index below the 13 SMA #W1.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Support - Week 3 of December 2013.

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 13 Dec'13

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls have another red week after the 'shooting star' week hangs #W2.
Senoku Span A & B widen #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen opens wide #W2.

Wrap: Bulls dive from ATH to Tenkan Sen #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Chikou Span dives towards Price line #W1.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen widens, giving the Bulls some relief #W2.
Critical for Bulls to stay above support at Tenkan Sen #W2.

Wrap: Bulls look to regain momentum and 'Hang' with the stars while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen cracks this week #W2.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Repulsion EOW - Week 3 of December 2013.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 13 Dec'13

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 13 Dec'13

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 13 Dec'13

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Bulls justify the long term 'Three Inside up' #M1 - with a new ATH in December.
November's 'Hanging man influence' helps Bears get the Short Term Screen to neutral zone.
Last two candles on the EOW #W1, sets up a 'Three Outside Down'.

Support & Resistance:

Bulls and Bears dominate last week, as our EOW channel top, repulses Bulls precisely #W1 and 34 SMA #D1 is closest support.
Bulls gain above the 13 SMA on EOW #W1, 5 EMA held by a whisker.

Moving Averages:

EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bullishly in a Golden Cross #D1.
Bulls find momentum above the 5 EMA (Weekly) #W1 to make a new ATH.

Indicators:

STS stays above resistance line #W2, which was a strong support for Bulls as expected.
Lower volume for the second half of the week, a plus for the Bulls #D1.

Wrap:

Bulls fighting for the short term screen - Bears again fail at the Weekly 5 EMA #W1.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Patterns:

Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1, still active after producing a new ATH in December.
Hanging man (study here, here or elsewhere) candle of November, continues to influence the above.
Medium Term Three outside Down (Study here, here or elsewhere) triggers, if this week's close is below the last week's close of 6168.

Support & Resistance:

34 EMA, 50 SMA and Channel Mid line remain Good Supports #D1.
Week channel top #W1 remains a pretty decent resistance for Bulls.

Moving Averages:

Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can continue to give the Bulls verve to attempt new ATHs.
Keeping above the 5 EMA on the EOW (6162), #W1, Bulls retain momentum to attempt another attack on the recent ATH #W1.
With the index closing above 6196 on Monday, Bulls would avoid starting the week with a Bearish Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD #D1.

Indicators:

MACD and its MA poised for a Bearish Cross #D1.

STS keeping above its support line, works for the Bulls #W2.

Wrap:

Bulls seek to keep clear above the 13 SMA (EOW) and attempt another attack on the ATH - Bears look to close the week below the 5 EMA #W1 and trigger a Medium term Three Outside Down.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - ATH - Week 3 of December 2013.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 13 Dec'13

Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls and Bears get their Season's Wish List filled last week.
Bulls make a new ATH #W2.
Bears get a close below the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Senkou Span gap widens making for a thicker Kumo #W3.

Wrap: Bulls get a new ATH, Bears force a close below the Tenkan Sen #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Chikou Span keeping above the Price Line critical for Bull moves #W1.
Bulls need to get above the Tenkan Sen to remain in the game #W2.
Thicker Kumo means future support for Bulls if the Index is above the Kumo then #W3.

Wrap: Bears look to keep it below the Tenkan Sen #W2. Bulls eye the ATH once more.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.