Trade, Live and Thrive

Saturday, February 16, 2013

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 11 February to 15 February, 2013 - Stand off..

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below

The Kumo Breakout: Strong Bullish Signal (B)

The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

The Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (cC)

Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K)

Last:
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (T)

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 15 Feb'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls and Bears stand off #2, after last week's, Bearish Harami, with a lower close !

The Chikou Span #1 dips again - still way above the price line.

The Oscillator #3 ticks up - divergence with Price continues.

Bears & Bull stand off for this week - Advantage Bears.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bears need the index back below the cluster of supports MVWAP 34, Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen #2.

Bearish Divergence apparent on the Oscillator #3.

A lower close last week, has given the Bears hope of recrossing the red Tenkan Sen Line #2.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 11 February to 15 February, 2013 - Bears Roll down some more..

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below:

The Senoku Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (Ss)

The Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (K)

The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (T)

The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)

The Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (Cc)

The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

New:

The Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (Te)

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 15 Feb'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bears after taking out the Tenkan Sen, stay down #2.

Oscillator ticks down and Divergence to Price continues #3.

Chikou Span dives towards the Price line #1

Bears follow up the break of the Tenkan Sen last week, with another red candle, to keep the Medium term Screen.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Staying above the Kijun Sen - Bulls hold the edge.

Bears see strength, staying below the Tenkan Sen #2.

The now, not so distant possibility of a Bearish, 'Kijun Sen - Tenkan Sen' Cross continues to be the Bear Hope..

Sunday, February 10, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 04 February to 08 February, 2013 - Channel Top Hold

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 08 Feb'13

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 08 Feb'13

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 08 Feb'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Channel top resistance #D1, again - holds the Bulls, a smaller green week ensues.

#D2 and #W2 shows that Divergence persists.

#M1, #W1, #D1 - show us that the Month Channel's red top line, is almost at the price line.

5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD charts #D1, mildly deflect - cross still an option.

RSI #W2, moves into oversold.

Bulls remain on top on all the three screens as of now.

Bulls are on top but slow down a bit .. watch the Month/Day Channel's top red line #M1/#D1 and the Divergences #D2 & #W2.

The Ellipses marked #M1, #W1 and #D1 indicate the hot spots on the long, medium and short term charts respectively.

As one can see - we are zooming into the action starting #M1 through #W1 and get up close in #D1.

Looking forward into the next Week:

Day channel's, top red line #D1, continues to be resistance for Bulls.

The MVWAP 34 on the EOD, #D1is the likely support.

RSI #W2, causing another 'Lower High' is not good for Bulls.

Possibility of a MA cross or continuing deflection of the 13 SMA with 5 EMA on the Day charts #D1 worth watching.

Month Channel top #M1 assumes critical importance as the next major resistance to beat.

Month Channel Top is a critical resistance - #M1..

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 4 February to 08 February, 2013 - 2 Crows' Fall..

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 08 Feb'13

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 08 Feb'13

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Nov' 2012, onward - as on 08 Feb'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Channel Top Stop on the EOW #3, becomes the nemesis of Bulls.
2 crows pattern which we studied last week works for the Bears #3.

Day channel #5 with the arrows, show us the resistance and supports to watch out for, next week.

Index slips below the 34 EMA and 50 SMA on the EOD charts #5.

MACD visits the zero line #6
Bulls find support on the 13 SMA #3 EOW - a strong place.

Bulls lose control of the short & medium term even as the Bears rev up some momentum after bouncing off the Week Channel's top line and the 2 crows pattern #3.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Channel top on the EOW, remains a major resistance #3.

Bouncing from the green bottom line of the EOD channel #5 - Bulls could attempt a retake of the short term screen.

Index keeping above the 13 SMA on the EOW #3, is critical for Bulls.
2 crows pattern that we studied last week to be followed up.
50 SMA and 200 SMA converge after a long time - too much of this would result in a death cross.

Getting above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high #1 - is important for Bulls to get a shot at new Highs.

Keeping the index above the 13 SMA on the EOW Charts #3 keeps the Bull in contention for a Bounce..

Saturday, February 9, 2013

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 04 February to 08 February, 2013 - Bears Hold

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below

The Kumo Breakout: Strong Bullish Signal (B)

The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

The Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (cC)

Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K)

Last:
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (T)

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 08 Feb'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bears pull one back #2, Bearish Harami.

The Chikou Span #1 dips for a change - still way above the price line.

The Oscillator #3 ticks up - divergence with Price persists.

Bears hold Bull run for this week.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bears need the index back below the cluster of supports MVWAP 34, Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen #2.

Bearish Divergence apparent on the Oscillator #3.

A close below last week would give the Bears hope of recrossing the red Tenkan Sen Line #2.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.