Trade, Live and Thrive

Sunday, December 16, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 10 December to 14 December, 2012 - Bears see Red

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 14 December, 2012

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 14 December, 2012

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 14 December, 2012

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls fail to move back into the Week Channel #3 and Bears see a Red Candle for the week.

Bearish Deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW #3 - seems likely.

Bearish Cross of the above MAs on the EOD #5 also imminent.

Index slithers along. at or around the bottom line. of the EOW channel #3, #5.

Bulls manage to keep above the 34 MVWAP on the EOD #5.

Bears close index below the critical 13 SMA on the week charts #3.

Last week again saw the Bulls and Bears maintain status 'quo on the medium term and short term - bears go stronger into the next week.

Looking forward into the next Week:

Bearish Deflection and Cross of 5/13 MAs that we track, looks on next week on EOW and EOD #3, #5.

Bulls need to move back decisively into the EOW channel to avert a slide #3.

Above the 5 EMA the Bulls retain Long Term strength #1.

Below the 13 SMA the Bears gain an edge in the medium term #3.

Resistance continues at the EOW channel bottom, support is at the '23.6% Fibonacci retrace of the Oct'07 High and Mar'09 Low' #1.

Bears showed some strength last week, by positioning the index for a bearish move - now to see if they can take it down.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 10 December to 14 December, 2012 - Hikkake..

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 14 Dec '12

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 14 Dec '12

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from October 2012, onward - as on 14 Dec '2012

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from October. 2012, onward - as on 14 Dec '2012

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

A Red Week with a candle #3 which just fell short of being a Bearish Engulfing of the previous one..

We looked at the Bulls taking Step 1 for a Three Outside up, by staying above the resistance line on the EOD #5 - Bears ensure that this did not happen.

Another Three Outside up.#1 requirement which we studied last week was that the Nov'12 Close should be held by the Bulls - The week ended exactly at Nov'12 close i.e. 5880 !!

Bulls held the index above 5880 for most of the week - the fall on breach of this level was swift.

The fall came close to touching the 'Wall' for this month at 5825 before moving back to 5880.

A Bullish Hikkake which one can study here and here - forms on the EOD #7.

The Resistance line drawn on the EOD #5 held off the Bulls and the Bears were sent back near the Wall for the month.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

A 'Three Outside up' on the long term chart #1 combined with a 'Bullish Hikkake' on the EOD #7 - bodes good omens for the bull.

Falling below our Wall for December 5825 however, holds off above advantage.

Bullish Hikkake's effect would be known if 5925 is taken & held by the Bulls in the next two days.

Bearish Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on EOD is on - a close above 5900 on Monday and it becomes a Bullish Deflection.

Keeping above the Wall at all costs and November's Close are critical for Bulls - Couple of Candles to go on the EOD, to know the fate of the Bullish Hikkake as studied above.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - 10 December to 14 December, 2012 - On the Range

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below

The Kumo Breakout: Strong Bullish Signal (B)

The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

The Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (cC)

The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K)
Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)

New:
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Weak Bearish  Signal (T)

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 14 December, 2012

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bearish - 'Kijun Sen (blue line) - Tenkan Sen' (red line) Cross happens as anticipated, its a weak signal as it occurs when the price is above the Kumo #1.

The Oscillator ticks up while still in the negative #2.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

A Senoku Span Cross - if it happens from this position - is bad news for the Bulls.

Bears get their Bearish Kijun Sen - Tenkan Sen Cross #1 - and life inside the Kumo beckons.

Bulls keep the index above the MVWAP 34, Tekan Sen (red line) and the Kijun Sen (blue line) #1.

Above two should produce some Ranging.

The Blue Line (Kijun Sen) and Red Line (Tenkan Sen) Crossing last week, could result in some Consolidation.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 10 December to 14 December, 2012 - Engulfed on High..

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below:

The Senoku Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (Ss)

The Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (K)

The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (T)

The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)

The Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (Cc)

Last:

The Tenkan Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (Te)

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 14 December, 2012

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls keep above the Tenkan Sen #1 but lose ground..

Oscillator ticks up again #2

Flat Kumo effect on.

This Week's red candle Engulfs the previous week's green candle.

Looking forward into the next Week:

Staying above the Kumo - advantage is with the Bulls.

Flat Kumo Effect could be on for a few more weeks.

Bulls would need to remain above the Tenkan Sen #2 to keep the momentum on.

Possibility of a Bearish, 'Kijun Sen - Tenkan Sen' Cross continues to be the Bear Hope..

Sunday, December 9, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 03 December to 07 December, 2012 - Bulls nibble on Green

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 07 December, 2012

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 07 December, 2012

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 07 December, 2012

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls after averting a Three Inside Down #1 last month - consolidate with a small green candle this week.

%D and %K on the STS #2, have crossed bearishly.

Bullish Cross or Bearish Deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW #3 - awaited.

Index slithers along. at or around the bottom line. of the EOW channel #3 and #5.

Bulls manage to keep above the 34 MVWAP on the EOD #5.

Bearish Cross of the 5 EMA, to below the 13 SMA on the EOD #5 - seems on.

Last week again saw the Bulls maintain status 'quo on the medium term, and they continue to retain control of the Long Term Charts.

Looking forward into the next Week:

Bearish Crosses of critical MAs that we track, possible next week on EOW and EOD #3, #5.

Bulls need to move back decisively into the EOW channel to avert a slide #3.

Above the 5 EMA the Bulls retain Long Term strength #1.

Resistance continues at the EOW channel bottom, support is at the '23.6% Fibonacci retrace of the Oct'07 High and Mar'09 Low' #1.

Bulls continue to nudge ahead - the Bears are yet to show that they mean Business.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.