Trade, Live and Thrive

Sunday, July 29, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 23 July to 27 July, 2012 - Three Inside up Month ?!

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move) (or) EOM Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - 27 July, 2012

Above is the Month Chart - EOM - analyzing Data from mid 2009 onward.

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - 27 July, 2012.

Above is the Week Chart - EOW - analyzing Data from Q1 2012 onward.

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move) (or) EOD Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - 27 July, 2012.

Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from Q3 2012 onward.

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
The Bullish 'Three Inside Up' pattern seen on the EOM (1) - looks like a certainty this month - after the Bears almost killed it early last week.
Bears kept the index below the 5 EMA on the EOD, to fall around the MVWAP 34 on the EOD (5) and EOW (3) - from where the Bulls bounced back to get a green week.
RSI readings on the EOW (4) climbed but did not move into the oversold zone - good for bears.
Bears lost the thread mid week, to hand the bulls their best week in recent times.

Looking forward into the next Week:
RSI reading on the EOW (4) - need to crack the 70 mark for the Bulls to take it forward.
Bears need to break their nemesis of many weeks the MVWAP 34.
STS strength (2) indicates Bull Power.
Negative divergence on the EOD (6) - gives the Bears hope.
Bulls holding their turf for the beginning of next week - indicates strength going into next month - as the 'three inside up' (1) gives them a fillip.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 16 July to 20 July, 2012 - Bulls eye Gold..

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 27 July, 2012

Above is the Month Chart - EOM - analyzing Data from 2008 onward.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 27 July, 2012.

Above is the Week Chart - EOW - analyzing Data from 2010 onward.

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 27 July, 2012.

Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from May 2012, onward.

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Nifty slipped below our Bull mark of 5208 early in the week and closed the week at 5100 - which happens to be the 34 EMA on the EOM.

Index went into a deep dive after breaking below the 34 EMA on the EOD and EOW - that we were watching.

The resistance line on the EOW (4), continues to hold back the Bulls.

Bulls eye GOLD, as the 50 SMA and 200 SMA produce a Golden Cross in the EOD.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bulls have to close July above last month's close (1), to make a Bullish 'Three outside up' pattern.

Bulls also need to keep the index above the 5015 mark, to retain the cross of the 5 EMA & 13 SMA as a Bullish one.

Bears would like to take the index below the current wall - 5045.

As watched for the previous week - one sees the 34 EMA on the EOM (1), EOW (3) and EOD (5) - as the critical levels to monitor.

Advantage Bulls at month close, added to the Golden Cross's effect coming into play, means Bulls get their Gold...

Saturday, July 28, 2012

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 23 July to 27 July, 2012 - Bulls Comeback

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as marked on chart below:

Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)

The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

The Kijun sen cross: Weak Bearish Signal (K)

The Kijun sen cross: Strong Bullish Signal (K)

Tenkan Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (Te)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (T)

DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 27 July, 2012

Learning from the Past Week: (Click)

Another repeat performance from the Bulls - defying the last Bearish Signal - took support on the MVWAP 34 and the Kijun Seen.

Chikou Span (pink line) produced a deflection with the price line - helping the Bulls comeback, in what was one of the widest ranges among recent weeks.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

A take off from here would justify the Bulls resilience of recent times.

This would also produce the Green 'T' signal on the chart, as discussed week before.

Next week, Bears have a last chance of moving down on the last bearish 'T' we saw on the chart.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 23 July to 27 July, 2012 - Bulls stretched out..

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as shown on chart below:

The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (T)

The Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bullish Signal (Te)

The Kumo Break-in: Bearish Signal (B)

The Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bearish Signal (K)

Chikou Span Cross: Neutral Bearish Signal (Cc)

Senoku Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (Ss)

BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 27 July, 2012

Learning from the Past Week: (Click)

Bears got their Bearish,Kijun Sen Cross & Bearish Chikou Span Cross last week.

The Senkou Span Cross gave the Bulls some respite as it also came in last week.

MVWAP 34 was breached by the bears.

The Tenkan Sen was held by the Bulls.

Looking forward into the next Week:

Keeping above the Tenkan Sen Bulls would look at taking back lost ground.

The flat Kumo helps the Bulls.

Bears would need to keep it below the the MVWAP 34, to keep their turf.

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 25 July 2012 - Welcome back, Golden Cross

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 25 July, 2012.

Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from May 2012, onward.

Tommorow the 200 SMA and 50 SMA will cross Bullishly - see chart above.

The last two crosses of this critical MA combo - produced precious little for either Bulls or Bears in terms of Upside or Downside.

However one studies this cross, bearing in mind its popularity and therefore significance.

The Last Bearish Cross was accompanied by a Bullish 'Three outside up' on the EOW (click for post).

We therefore called (correctly) that its effect would be delayed.

This Bullish Cross or Golden Cross occurs with the Index taking support near the spot marking the cross.

The Index has also fallen heavily after a neat Pullback.

So one looks forward to the new Series and Month close, to call this one.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.