CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 14 May to 18 May, 2012 - The Median and the Nifty..

Learnings from the Past Week:

We went into the last week with all screens showing red (click).

We said that the Bears would see the Dawn of 'Bull' times.

The Nifty shot up 100 points from the week's bottom on Friday (click).

This move was with the Fib61x (EOD) and 200 DMA (EOW) as supports.

Are the supports strong enough to warrant a decisive Bull up move- or is this a false dawn?

Lets find out...

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:  

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 18 May, 2012. 

The EOM chart looks weak, with the Price below the 34 EMA.
You would have noticed by now, that the volume has been falling during this down move.
This means either that the real momentum is yet to kick in - or that the Bulls are just bidding time.





Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart: 

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 18 May, 2012.

The Nifty is at the Median, of our channel.

Bulls bounced off the 200 DMA - weekly.

We have a channel break favoring the Bears on the STS.

The long tail of the week's candle shows the Bull resilience.

Bulls had the volume up - Bears seem to keep it down - see the red and green arrows above.

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action  (or) EOD Chart:  

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 18 May, 2012.

We notice that the MACD Histogram is getting shorter and heading to the plus zone.

The Nifty is at the Median, of  this smaller. EOD channel too.

Bulls found support on the the Fibonacci 61.8% of the 2008 low to 2010 high, marked on the EOD above.

The 34 EMA came within 15 points of bearishly crossing below the 200 DMA, on Friday's low.

Bounce from this low was 100 odd points.

The 5 EMA - EOD was the resistance for the Bulls on Friday.

Looking forward into next week:

Staying above the Fib 61x on the EOD & the 200 DMA on the EOW - the Bulls stay good for a strong up move.

Bearish cross of the 34 EMA & 200 DMA on the EOD, would be a long term blow for the bulls. 

Looking at the above and the rest of our weekly studies - one smells consolidation in the air.

Intra-week updates shall share that piece of the action.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 14 May to 18 May 2012 - Pink of Stealth

Our Conclusion of last week, was on the dot (click).

Last 7 Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as on chart below:

1. The Kijun sen cross: Weak Bullish Signal (K)

2. The Flat Kumo: Bullish Signal (Ko)

3. The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bullish Signal (T)
4. The Kumo Breakout: Bearish Signal (B)

5. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (C)

6. The Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (K)

7. The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (T)

The arrows on the chart point to...

3. The Chikou Span (Pink Color Line) is stealthily approaching the Price line looking at crossing it maybe next week - that would be a Bullish Signal.

4. This week we see the Red Line (Tenkan Sen) cross the Blue line (Kijun Sen) from above. This signal is Bearish, also 'cause it happens below the Kumo its Strongly Bearish!.  

5. The Oscillator is ticking into the minus.

Conclusion:

Ever since the Kumo Breakout (B) we have had 4 Red Weeks + 4 Bearish Signals in a row.

Next week the Longs have a shot at a Green Bullish Signal as in '3'.

Nifty although deep in the red currently - has a potential to pause and even reverse based on above.

BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:  

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 18 May, 2012.  

Introduction (for New Readers):

.....Regulars can skip this part......

We do a weekly Ichimoku study, to complement our 'Triple Screen Technical Analysis', of the markets that we track, in our quest to master Technical Analysis.

When taking the 'weekly' time frame, to use the Ichimoku Cloud, we need to consider the following..

The standard settings for an Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart are 9, 26, 52 and are used on EOD charts.  

When Ichimoku was created back in the 1930s, a trading week was 6 days long.  So we have one and a half week(9), one month(26) and two months(52). 

Now that the trading week is 5 days, we should actually use 7,  22 and 44 instead. 

However, the majority of systems, worldwide, still use the old settings 9, 26, 52. 

We need to study markets, on a weekly basis on this Blog.  

How do we fit 52, 26 and 9 into that need?  With one candle being one week?

There are 52 weeks in a year, 26 weeks form two quarters (or a half year) and 9 weeks equal about 2 months.  Fits the old logic - albeit differently.

Presto, we have a longer term view with the same settings!

So, if you like to move off the beaten track, for a change... do read on...

Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line, 

Senkou Span A - black line, 

Senkou Span B - grey line, 

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 14 May to 18 May, 2012 - Gravity and Equilibrium revisited..

Gravity and Equilibrium revisited - Bingo!

Exactly 2 months ago when the Dow was at its peak - our Ichimoku study threw up a gem titled 'Gravity & Equilibrium' - here is the link (click).

At that time, we  saw the Dow gravitating down towards the Kumo.

Today, with half the journey done, we look back, and can repeat the last line of that post '..why else study?'

So here is this week's screen - do note that the Preamble now comes after the screen (and is for new readers).

Last 5 Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as on chart below:

1. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (C)

2. Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (T)

3. Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)

4. The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

5. Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (red line)

The Arrows point to...

1. The Purple line is the Chikou Span - this one looks like it would touch and cross the Price line soon - Bearish Signal, if that happens.

2. The Price has stopped short of the Kijun Sen - Dark Blue line - Support here is considered good and Bulls can take heart from that. Bullish signal that.

Conclusion:  

Bears have done a good job of keeping the price below the Tenkan Sen (Red Line) for two weeks now. 

Bulls now need to use the Kijun Sen support to move the price above the red line.

From being a Bullish screen this one has become a Neutral one, from the Ichimoku point of view.

DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud: 

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 18 May 2012  

Preamble (for New Readers):

.....Regulars can skip this part......

Introduction:

We do a weekly Ichimoku study, to complement our 'Triple Screen Technical Analysis', of the markets that we track, in our quest to master Technical Analysis.

When taking the 'weekly' time frame, to use the Ichimoku Cloud, we need to consider the following..

The standard settings for an Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart are 9, 26, 52 and are used on EOD charts.  

When Ichimoku was created back in the 1930s, a trading week was 6 days long.  So we have one and a half week(9), one month(26) and two months(52). 

Now that the trading week is 5 days, we should actually use 7,  22 and 44 instead. 

However, the majority of systems, worldwide, still use the old settings 9, 26, 52. 

We need to study markets, on a weekly basis on this Blog.  

How do we fit 52, 26 and 9 into that need?  With one candle being one week?

There are 52 weeks in a year, 26 weeks form two quarters (or a half year) and 9 weeks equal about 2 months.  Fits the old logic - albeit differently.

Presto, we have a longer term view with the same settings!

So, if you like to move off the beaten track, for a change... do read on...

Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - purple line,

Kijun Sen - blue line, 

Senkou Span A - black line, 

Senkou Span B - grey line, 

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

https://www.ichimokutrade.com/articles/Ichimoku_Ebook.pdf

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 14 May to 18 May, 2012 - Midlife Crisis Point

Learnings from the Past Week:

Our short term view of the market turned Bearish last Monday (click).

The Bears then took it down to 1300 and lower by weekend.

After Thursday's Market action, we suggested that one support point would be the Weekly MVWAP 34 (click).

Bulls found support, exactly at this point, on Friday.

Would mid life (mid channel) crisis, affect the Bears at this stage - or are we in for more red?

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move)  (or) EOM Chart:

S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 18 May, 2012. 

With Price above the MVWAP 34 - this screen is owned by Bulls.

With a weekly close below all our short term MAs - its a nervous owner indeed.

The 13 SMA and the Channel mid line - are support areas for the Bulls.

The astounding effect of the Three inside down (click) has been a gain of 100 points and counting for the alert Bear.

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart:  

S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 18 May, 2012.

The Weekly channels (white lines) have had a reduction in their angle of inclination, due to recent Price action.

Support for Bulls is exactly at the MVWAP 34 as suggested.

The Stochastic indicator has gone into oversold territory.

We saw this screen, scream 'Bear' in last last week's EOW (click) - we expect a pause for breath at the MVWAP 34 (arrow).

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move)  (or) EOD Chart:  

S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) - 18 May, 2012.  

Our Day Channel (yellow lines) just got steeper - after the channel break.

The Positive divergence, seen last week, is still apparent (yellow arrow).

An all red week is rare - but with Price below all MAs and a channel break as pointed out last Monday - this too has happened.

Looking forward into next week:

Bears are on top. 

They have almost all Indicators on their side.

Support at the Weekly MVWAP34 should lead to some consolidation.

Positive Divergences are a precursor to some ranging moves or trend reversal.

Bulls have the above two, and hope on their side.

EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 18 May 2012 - Bulls Hot!

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action  (or) EOD Chart:  

Nifty - End of Day - 18 May 2012     

On Thursday morning we had 'Wished the Bulls the best' (click), in our post titled "...Bull's'hot.."** 

Guess our sentiments were appreciated - cause the next two Daily closes, made by the Nifty (i.e. 4870 & 4891) were higher.

On a more serious note - at today's low, the 200 DMA read 5085 and the 34 EMA read 5100, they were within 15 points of a cross - instead they choose to deflect - as of now.

One of the supports as suggested in the last study, the Fibonacci 61.8% of the 2008 low to 2010 high, was the take off point today.

The bounce from today's low, was a neat 100+ points. 

All the above read along with our previous posts on this subject - would make the contra thinking, confirmed Bulls among us, enjoy their weekend. 

**PS: 

Bulls were Hot Today...

Bull Shot Recipe for weekend use can be googled.

Have a good one...