Trade, Live and Thrive

Saturday, March 1, 2014

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Monday, February 24, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - At ATH Again - Week 4 of February 2014.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 21 Feb'14

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 21 Feb'14

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 21 Feb'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Bulls use the Hammer Candle at the bottom of the last dive to reach the ATH #W1.
Month Screen shows a 'Deliberation Candle Pattern - 3 green candles' followed by the Jan and Feb'14 candles #M1,
Bearish Harami formed by the last two candles on the Weekly #W1,

Support & Resistance:

Bulls keep it above the 13 SMA on the Week charts #W1 and hit out at the ATH intra-week. #D1.

Moving Averages:

On the Week Chart #W1 and Day Charts #D1, the 5 EMA stays bullishly crossed above the 13 SMA,

Indicators:

RSI 13, continues to meander in the 50s #W2 while the Stochastic keeps it to the over-bought #D1

Wrap:

Bulls at the ATH again - Bears defend the ATH.

Looking forward into this Week:

Patterns:

The 'Deliberation Candle Pattern' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) needs consideration #M1.
Weekly Bearish Harami's possible progression to a Three Inside Down worth a study (Study link here, here or elsewhere) #W1.

Support & Resistance:

MVWAP 34 on the Short Term Chart is now support for the Bulls, while the All Time High (ATH) #M1 is resistance.

Moving Averages:

Bears need to get the index below the 13 SMA (1816) #W1 to get back into the game - Bulls look for a new ATH #M1.

Indicators:

Stochastic 34 3 4, staying in the over-bought, works for the Bulls #D2.

Wrap:

Bears target the 13 SMA #W1 (1816) - Bulls seek momentum to make a new ATH.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Flatten to deceive ? - Week 4 of February 2014.

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 21 Feb'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls after taking off above the Tenkan Sen consolidate #W2.
Senoku Span A & B flat #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen also flatten #W2.

Wrap: Index Consolidates #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Senoku Span A & B flattening as also Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen continues to indicate indecision #W3.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would show direction going forward $W2.

Wrap: Bulls look to stay above the Tenkan Sen - Bears want a bearish cross of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #W2.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - High Wave effect - Week 4 of February 2014.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 21 Feb'14

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 21 Feb'14

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 21 Feb'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

December & January candles formed a 'Bearish Engulfing' #M1.
The 'High Wave' candle keeps Bull and Bear guessing most of the week - Bulls make a sharp up move at week close #W1.

Support & Resistance:

Index closes above the February Wall (6076), Bears however defend the weekly 13 SMA #W1. Index is now stuck at the Month Pivot #D1.

Moving Averages:

The medium term 5 EMA remains in a Bearish Cross with the 13 SMA #W1, even as in the short term these averages cross bullishly #D1.

Indicators:

STS slips below the Support line shown, which now becomes resistance line for Bulls #W2.

Wrap:

Bulls gain the advantage closing above the Wall - Bears stay in the game defending the higher end of our range - 13 SMA Weekly #W1.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Patterns:

Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 fails to materialize, if February closes above January's close.
The 'High Wave' Candle on the Week Chart (Study link here, here or elsewhere) #W1 is active..

Support & Resistance:

13 SMA Weekly (6190), is immediate resistance for the week, while 5975 (76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the Dec'2011 Low to ATH' ) #W1 and 200 SMA #D1 remain the current supports.
Index needs to get unstuck from the Month Pivot #D1.

Moving Averages:

Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on and steady even as index floats between them #D1.
A Bullish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Week Charts gives the Bulls reason to celebrate at a Index reading of 6353 #W3.

Indicators:

STS keeping below its support line, works for the Bears #W1, while the MACD crossing above the zero line, helps the Bulls #D2.

Wrap:

Bulls seek to celebrate at 6353 #W1 - Bears want life below the '76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the Dec'2011 Low to ATH' (5975) #W1.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Pipped - Week 4 of February 2014.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 21 Feb'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls peep above the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - flatten #W3.
Distance between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen steady #W2
Chikou Span glides up in man's zone - avoiding a bearish cross #W1.

Wrap: Index peeps above the Tenkan Sen #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Chikou Span needs to climb some more to avoid a bearish cross with the Price Line in the next few weeks #W1.
Bears need to get below the Tenkan Sen to remain in the game #W2.
Flattening of Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen and the Senkou Span A & B implies consolidation #W2 #W3.

Wrap: Bears eye the Kumo #W2. Bulls happy that the Chikou Span is above the Price line #W1.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.