Trade, Live and Thrive

Saturday, July 7, 2012

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 02 July to 06 July, 2012 - Kumo Breakout !

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as shown on chart below:

The Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (K)

The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (T)

Chikou Span Cross: Weak Bullish Signal (C)

The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Weak  Bullish   Signal (Te)
The Kijun Sen Cross:  Weak  Bullish  Signal (K)
The Kumo Break-out:  Bullish  Signal (B)

BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 06 July, 2012

Learning from the Past Week: (Click)
The Index peeked out of the Kumo last week (B).
Senkou Span B as a resistance did not hold.
From here we have a long stretch of Flat Kumo - i.e Senkou Span B is flat.
For more on what the Flat Kumo means, do revisit this post (click)

Looking forward into the next Week:
Bulls are expected to pull higher, after the Kumo Breakout.
However the flat Kumo would pull back the Bulls, even after the Kumo Breakout.
Confirmation on Daily chart is advised.

Sunday, July 1, 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 25 June to 29 June, 2012 - Bulls come thro'

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 29 June, 2012

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 29 June, 2012.

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 29 June, 2012.

Learning from the Past Week(click):

On the EOM one sees that the 5 EMA would cross above the 13 SMA as and when the July candle appears - this as we studied was consequent to the close above 5272 (click)

As noted last week, Bulls kept it above 5125 and took the index up.
The Death Cross is still a factor - gap between the 50 & 200 SMA is widening everyday.

Looking forward into the Next Week:
The last two candles on the EOM, shows us a Bullish Engulfing - which can evolve into a seriously bullish 'Three outside up'.
The price has reached the channel top on the EOD and one expects resistance going forward.
Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOW - Bulls should keep their turf intact.

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 25 June to 29 June 01 2012 - Bulls keep above channel top.

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move) (or) EOM Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - 29 June, 2012

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - 29 June, 2012.

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move) (or) EOD Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - 29 June, 2012.

Learning from the Past Week(click):

EOM sees a close above the 5 EMA - Bulls would love that.

The last two candles on the EOW neatly bounced off the White Weekly channel top - as anticipated last week.

Bulls staved off a bearish cross on the RSI (EOW).

The redrawn EOD channel in yellow - shows the Index on a steep rate of climb, and its above the MVWAP 34.

Looking forward into the Next Week:

On the EOM the developing Bullish Harami is complete - bulls now look forward to this mutating into a Bullish 'Three inside up' next Week.

We see an Bullish Engulfing Pattern on the EOW, this for a bull should turn into a bullish 'Three outside up'.

A Bullish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA is on next week, if the index closes above 1353.

Keeping above the MVWAP 34 on the EOD, Bulls would look at taking off from the Week Channel (White) top.

Saturday, June 30, 2012

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 25 June to 29June, 2012 - Bulls hold the Cross

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as marked on chart below:

Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)

The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (Te)

The Kijun sen cross: Weak Bearish Signal (K)

The Kijun sen cross: Strong Bullish Signal (K)

Tenkan Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (Te)

DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 29 June, 2012

Learning from the Past Week:
We suggested that, keeping above the MVWAP 34, may help the Bulls keep their turf for some more time.
This has happened with the Bulls moving up nicely, with a Bullish Kijun Sen Cross.
The expected, Bearish Kijun Sen - Tenkan Sen cross is yet to happen - the lines are Exactly even now.

Looking forward into the next week:

Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen read exactly the same for two weeks running.

While a deflection would be a possibility - the greater probability favors a Bearish cross.. when it happens.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 25 June to 29 June 2012 - Kumo Times

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as shown on chart below:

The Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (K)

The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (T)

Chikou Span Cross: Weak Bullish Signal (C)

The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Weak  Bullish   Signal (Te)
The Kijun Sen Cross:  Weak  Bullish  Signal (K)
The Kumo Break-in: Bullish  Signal (B)

BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 29 June, 2012

Learning from the Past Week:

As discussed last week (click) we see that the Price stayed inside the Kumo - and that worked for the Bulls.

Coming so close to the Senkou Span B, one looks out for the breakout and the 'Flat Kumo Effect'.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Senoku Span B is the next resistance and the flat Kumo could deflect prices back.

Bulls keeping it above the MVWAP 34 and Bears holding is below the Flat Kumo, looks like the next scenario.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.