Trade, Live and Thrive

Friday, May 4, 2012

EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 04 May 2012 - Trending at last...

Nifty - End of Day - 04 May 2012

Yesterday's Chart (Click) showed the Index at the Wall - Even Steven for Bulls and Bears...

We also said that we expected a Trending move today.

Last weekend (click - see 'Looking Forward') we stated that "Below the wall, the Bears can take it down real fast - world cues willing."

Our range to break had 200 DMA at the bottom end.

We got the world cues as studied in the last post (click or see below).

The Nifty opened down and then trended down - real fast - 100 odd points.

200 DMA as one can see above was broken on the downside.

Weekend Analysis up next.

EOD Technical Analysis, S&P 500 - 03 May 2012 - One for the Bears..

S&P 500 - End of Day - 03 May 2012

In our last weekend analysis (click) we surmised that the Bulls need to keep the index above the MVWAP 34.

The EOM update that followed (click) showed us that 1398 would be a level the Bulls should hold.

In yesterday's action the Bears got the Index below MVWAP 34 (EOD Chart) and closed it at 1386.

Index also slipped below the 5 and 10 EMA on EOD chart.

Close of the Week below 1398 would augur ill for the Bulls (Since our signal was on the EOM chart).

Retaking the MVWAP 34 (EOD) on Friday would prevent loss of momentum for the Bulls.

As of now, the Bearish 'Three Inside Down' is triggered, on the Monthly (click) charts.

Thursday, May 3, 2012

EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 03 May 2012 - Perfect 10

Nifty - End of Day - 03 May 2012

In our weekend post (click - see 'Looking Forward'), we saw strength for the Nifty above 34 EMA on EOD and EOW.

As seen in the circle the Nifty visited the 34 EMA on the EOD - and turned back.

Below the Wall (May) at 5189 we said that the Bears get into the action.

With today's close at 5188 - we have a perfect landing in the Bear's lap.

Having run the full course, we now expect the Nifty to start a trending move on the last day of the week.

Although the Nifty is largely in the red currently, Bulls and Bears are 'Even Steven' on whose trend it will be.

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

EOM Technical Analysis, S&P 500 - 30 April 2012 - Update

S&P 500 - End of Month - 30 April 2012

This is an update to our Weekend Study (click).
The April 2012, month closed on a cautious note for the Bulls. We have the final candle as above.
As one can see from the candle pattern circled - we have a Bearish Harami (low reliability).
If May 2012 closes below the close of April 2012 (i.e 1398), this Harami mutates into a "Three Inside down".
Keeping above the 1398 mark, the Bulls aim for the Red Channel Top.
For those who missed out... here are the recent links we used to study the above patterns.

Bearish Harami (Low Reliability)
http://www.thepatternsite.com/HaramiBear.html
http://www.traderslog.com/bearish-harami-weekly-candlestick/

Three Inside Down (High Reliability)

http://www.thepatternsite.com/ThreeInsideDown.html

http://www.moneycontrol.com/glossary/technicals/what-is-three-inside-down-bearish-reversal-pattern_1683.html
http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/candlestick_patterns/bear/three_inside_down_bearish.cfm

EOM Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 29(30) April 2012 - Update

Nifty - End of Month - 30 April 2012

This is an update to our Weekend Study (click).

The April 2012, month closed yesterday and on a Bullish note.

Close was above our mark of 5220, and we should see the Short MAs (5 EMA / 13 SMA) bullishly crossed over, when the next candle appears tomorrow.

This cross is valid above 5199 for the month.

The Bears can still look forward to the "Three inside down". Studied last weekend.

If Nifty stays above the Wall for the month (5189) and better, above the 5199 - Bulls are safe.

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Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.