EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 15 March 2012 - The Wall stands firm....

Nifty - End of Day - 15 March  2012  

The Wall did what Walls do best...STOP....after stopping at the wall yesterday, the Nifty dived 100 points today. This was in line with our weekend surmise (see end of post here) - the trader got her/his moves, with the volatility and the price movements, which were in the zone marked last weekend. 

Bulls have the long term 34 EMA over 200 DMA  cross and the short term 5 EMA over 13 SMA cross which are intact, going for them. Bulls have also closed today, just in the neutral zone (not red). Notice the Volume and MACD action. Have fun tommorow..

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 14 March 2012 - At the Wall..

Nifty - End of Day - 14 March  2012 

We concluded our study last weekend (see last two sections of study here) with the note that Bulls would smile above 5343 for Monday - with the Index closing at 5360, bulls were happy to do so. They continued to do this, all the way to the wall (5484) which has stopped the Bulls (EOD today - 5464) ahead of crucial Fundamental inputs (union Budget). The 5 EMA is above the 13 SMA too.

Meanwhile in our Ichimoku Study (here) as we wished in point 'F', the candle has indeed moved into the Kumo...we shall visit it, this weekend.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen Analysis - Week: 05 March to 09 March 2012 - Poised !

Recap: The Nifty drifted below the 34 EMA on the EOD last week (post here)- bounced off the 200 DMA (post here) and is just in the Neutral zone as of  last weekend. The EOW chart also shows a precise take off from the 34 EMA on the weekly charts. Overall our note that the 34 EMA and 200 DMA zone, would hold the bears, rang true.

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 09 M arch 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Month Chart (each candle is 1 month): Taking support on the 5 EMA the index has closed above the 13 SMA. We now zoom into the area marked with a blue square for a closer look..below.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 09 March  2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Week Chart (each candle is 1 week): With a clinical take off from the 34 EMA (see blue oval) the Index almost formed a Doji this week. Bulls would have been confident going into Budget week if the close were above the 5 EMA. The STS shows the action of the resistance line. We now magnify the portion in the Blue square with the chart below.

Nifty - End of Day - 09 March  2012

CNX Nifty 50 - EOD Chart (line chart of close prices):  The closing price disguises the action on Wednesday where the Nifty bounced off the 200 DMA like a vetran! The 5 EMA and the 35 EMA form a touch and go (Bullish) as of now. Bullish cross of the 5 EMA above the 13 EMA should be the precursor for the next Bull move. Bulls Smile above 5343 for Monday and Laugh above 5484 (Wall) for the month. 

Looking Forward: World markets (US, Europe) are largely back in the green. India as seen in the previous study is not is the best of places after the recent fall.  With the anticipated volatility, our range on the EOD chart should give some good trading moves. Trending times are below the 200 DMA or above the Wall.

The BSE Sensex 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 05 March to 09 March 2012 - Bears have it all.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart - 09 March 2012

Please read 'Preamble' from here. We are replacing the Ichimoku Study on the Month chart with this Weekly Study.

The BSE Sensex 30 - Ichimoku - End of Week Study.

A: Senkou Span Cross: On the chart the grey cloud is the Kumo. Notice that the cloud's borders have black and grey lines - and they cross each other at the point marked by 'a'. So the Senkou span A (black line) crosses the Senkou span B (grey line) from the top down, and that makes it a 'Bearish Cross'. 

The effect of this Cross was felt 26 weeks before the cross, at the candle marked by 'A' - as this candle is below the Kumo we have a 'Strong Senkou span Bearish Cross' 

The Index has fallen from 18500 odd to 15500 after this signal was felt at 'A'

B: Chikou Span Cross: The purple line is called the Chikou Span. At the point marked by 'b' it crosses through the price curve from the bottom up, this is a bullish signal or buy. 

The effect of this cross is felt 26 weeks after the cross at the candle marked by 'B' - however as this candle is below the Kumo we have a 'Weak Buy on Chikou span Cross'.

We notice that the index moves up a couple of candles, faces resistance at the Kumo and then falls - after the event at candle 'B'.  

C: The kijun sen cross signal is given when price crosses over the kijun sen(blue line). If it crosses the price curve from the bottom up, then it is a bullish signal. A weak kijun sen cross Buy signal takes place when a bullish cross happens below the kumo. We have a weak Bullish cross.

D: The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross happens when the tenkan sen crosses over the kijun sen. If the tenkan sen crosses above the kijun sen, then it is a bullish signal. A weak tenkan sen/kijun sen cross Buy signal takes place when a bullish cross happens below the kumo. We have a weak Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross.

E: The price bounced back from inside the Kumo (grey cloud) and broke out below it.

Bears seem to have it all going for them as above.

F: The last input - we see that the price just about took support on the 'Tenkan sen (red line)'. If it now moves back into the Kumo and breaks out above it... the Long term Bull will smile. 

Also see the action of Price on the M VWAP at the last candle.

The Dow 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 05 March to 09 March 2012 - Bulls have it all.

Preamble:

We shall do a Ichimoku study to complement our 'Triple Screen Technical Analysis' of the US markets -  Taking the 'weekly' time frame may be experimental but lets look at the facts..

The standard settings for an Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart are 9,26,52 and are used on EOD charts.  When Ichimoku was created back in the 1930s, a trading week was 6 days long. So we have one and a half week, one month, and two months. Now that the trading week is 5 days, we can use 7, 22, and 44 instead.

However, sticking to the standard settings (as the majority still use them) one notices that there is a case for 'End of Week' Charts where each candle is one week's data. There are 52 weeks in a year, 26 weeks form two quarters and 9 weeks equal about 2 months. We have a longer term view - lets check if that works out in the days to come.

One needs to read up on Ichimoku (see our first post here to start off) and use the link below, as I use the same color code. There are many more studies out there, feel free and get a good one.

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 09 March 2012

The Dow Jones Industrial Average 30 - Ichimoku - End of Week Study.

A: See the green 'a' and 'A' and the green line. 'a' is the 'Senkou Span Cross'. If the senkou span A (black line) crosses the senkou span B (grey line) from the bottom up, then it is a bullish signal. 26 weeks before the cross - 'A' at the green line shows the relevant candle - as you would have read by now - A neutral senkou span cross signal takes place when the price curve is inside the kumo at the time of the senkou span cross. We have a Neutral Bullish Cross.

B: See the orange 'b' and 'B' and orange line. 'b' is the 'Chikou Span Cross'. If the chikou span (purple line) crosses through the price curve from the bottom up, then it is a bullish signal. A strong chikou span cross Buy signal takes place when a bullish cross takes place and current price is above the kumo. See 'B' and candle at orange line - as the candle is above the 'kumo' we have a Strong Bullish signal.  

C: 'C' is a 'Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross'. A neutral tenkan sen (red line)/kijun sen (blue line) cross Buy signal takes place when a bullish cross happens within the kumo as seen.

D: 'D' is the 'Kumo Breakout'. The signal to go long in Kumo (grey cloud) breakout trading is when price closes above the prevailing kumo - as seen.

Bulls would enjoy the above.

E: The last input - we see that the price took support on the 'Tenkan sen(red line)'. One notes that price breaching the tenkan sen can give an early indication of a trend change .. maybe the Bear will get lucky some time soon.