EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 25 May 2012 - Bearing Golden Crosses..

Nifty - End of Day - 25 May 2012    

Continuing on the last post on this subject, lets do a long term study from 2008.

We were watching the 34 EMA and 200 DMA cross bearishly last week.

We also discussed the more famous 50 & 200 DMA* which have not yet crossed.

Golden Cross (we use the 200 DMA and 50 EMA - see link below) 
http://marketsci.wordpress.com/2010/07/15/roundup-trading-the-golden-cross-2/

From the Chart:

A -  The 2008 Fall : after a bearish cross.

B -  The 2009 - 2010 Bull run : after a bullish cross

C -  The 2011 Fall : We had a Bearish Cross

D -  The 2012 Spike : A Bullish Cross

'D' as you can see, has produced very little for the Long Term Bull.

Notice that we had the 5 EMA/13SMA cross on the EOM as validation (click).

This EOM cross was valid above 5199 for May'12 as studied earlier this month (click).

Helped us avoid a Bull trap.

The effect of 'E' is what one wants to see - we shall watch that one..

Revision of the reads on MA crossovers (studied last at 'D' )... for the weekend.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_strategies:arthur_hill_on_movin

http://www.traderslog.com/moving-average-crossovers/

EOW Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 11 May 2012 - One for the Bears & One for the Bulls..

The Nifty started Trending downwards, last week (click).

Our Weekend analysis (click) showed on the EOW, an 'Old Resistance line' - now a 'Support line' - as the bottom end of the range for the week. 

We analyzed above in our EOD Analysis - Intra week (click). 

Price Broke through this support line in last week's action.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:   

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Candle Chart - 11 May, 2012.

We have our EOW chart, with only the above Support line, and the Price break highlighted with a blue circle.

Clearly shows that price has indeed cracked through this line.

See also the action on the Stochastic Indicator similarly highlighted. 

This one is for the Bears...

Look below for another view..

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, with closing prices in a line graph (or) EOW Chart:   

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Line Chart - 11 May, 2012.

We use a line chart and do a 'ditto' analysis as above.

Channel line orientation changes subtly.

Break is yet to happen here.

This one is for the Bulls...

Needless to say its up to the individual trader to choose her/his preference of Candle/Bar or Line Chart.

We just want to present both perspectives.

Do check out same, on your charts too..

Here are some weekend reads, which I use, to study Channels....

http://www.studyforex.com/channel-pattern.html
http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/techanalysis3.asp#axzz1uZM0ZjLu
http://www.marketvolume.com/technicalindicators/pricechannel.asp

EOM Technical Analysis, S&P 500 - 30 April 2012 - Update

S&P 500 - End of Month - 30 April  2012  

This is an update to our Weekend Study (click).
The April 2012, month closed on a cautious note for the Bulls. We have the final candle as above.
As one can see from the candle pattern circled - we have a Bearish Harami (low reliability).
If May 2012 closes below the close of April 2012 (i.e 1398), this Harami mutates into a "Three Inside down".
Keeping above the 1398 mark, the Bulls aim for the Red Channel Top.
For those who missed out... here are the recent links we used to study the above patterns.


Bearish Harami (Low Reliability)
http://www.thepatternsite.com/HaramiBear.html
http://www.traderslog.com/bearish-harami-weekly-candlestick/


Three Inside Down (High Reliability)

http://www.thepatternsite.com/ThreeInsideDown.html

http://www.moneycontrol.com/glossary/technicals/what-is-three-inside-down-bearish-reversal-pattern_1683.html
http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/candlestick_patterns/bear/three_inside_down_bearish.cfm

EOD Technical Analysis, S&P 500 - 19 April 2012 - Bulls on a flat field..

S&P 500 - End of Day - 19 April  2012   

We had an intra-week update couple of days ago (click), where we had observed that, 'the Bulls had caught up'.

We also emphasized that, the field was wide open and that, none of the MAs had crossed above the others.

Index continues to be flat, Bulls just about hold on to some weekly gains.

We are below MVWAP 34 again, short term MAs in bear mode.

The yellow Day channel changes, consequent to price action, to include the last two candles.

MACD Histogram has moved into plus territory.

Based on present position, the last two weekly candles, show a Bullish Harami (with one trading day to go).

Index continues consolidating, one expects the MVWAP34 to be the decider, for a Bull move.
The white weekly channel line, supporting the price, should crack for the advantage to shift to Bears, in the medium term.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 19 March to 23 March, 2012 - Channel bottom..

Recap: 
Last week (posted here), we figured that the US and European markets would fall, and this would put pressure on Indian markets. 
They did fall and we got red candles, on the S&P and Nifty, last week. 
We also tracked the market's moves with intra week, EOD updates. 
The Nifty ended below the crucial 34 EMA on the EOD charts. 
Where to next?

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 23 M arch 2012   

CNX Nifty 50 - Month Chart (each candle is 1 Month's price action): Long Term
This month's red candle is above the 5 EMA and is arguing with the 13 SMA, we find that the Month chart still presents a positive picture.
The developing 'Bearish Harami' on the last two candles, is the only small worry for the Bull.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 23 March  2012  

CNX Nifty 50 - Week Chart (each candle is 1 Week's price action): Medium Term
A fifth red candle happened last week. 
The support was again near the rising 34 EMA. 
After a lower High in the previous week's Candle, we have a higher Low with last week's candle. 
Bulls can look for some relief staying above the 34 EMA (EOW).

Nifty - End of Day - 23 March  2012  

CNX Nifty 50 - Day/EOD Chart (closing prices of each Day in a line): Short Term
We posted in our last EOD analysis (here) that we were at channel bottom. 
As one can see, the Nifty seems to be taking support at the green line in the chart above. 
The last touch and go (5 EMA/13 SMA) resulted in the bearish crossover continuing. 
We are still below the 34 EMA.
The falling 34 EMA is above the 200 DMA.

Looking Forward: 
Staying above our channel bottom, the Nifty would aim for the wall at 5484. 
If the bottom fails, the next support is the 200 DMA, as marked. 
Settlement weeks usually produce some solid 'action time'. 
After 5 red weeks, if a relief rally is coming up, this is one such time.

The BSE Sensex 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 19 March to 23 March 2012 - Relief Green?

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart - 23  March 2012  

Quick Reference : 

The Tenkan Sen - red line, 

The Kijun Sen - blue line, 

The Chikou Span - purple line, 

The Senkou Span A - black line, 

The Senkou Span B - grey line, 

The Kumo - grey shaded area.

Recent Signals : Last week (click here) and Previous Week (click here)

We observed last week that the price had gravitated towards the flat Kumo (Senkou Span B) since Jan'2012, to reach its state of equilibrium. 
The space where we have this flat Span B is shown with 'H'. 
Kumo resistance has sent the price down and out of the cloud. 
As observed last week, the resistance of the last week's attempt (Senkou Span A), did send the price back again this week.
Another attempt at the Senkou Span B is expected within the width of 'H'. 
Price breaching the Tenkan Sen (red) is the first indication, of trouble for the above attempt. 
As one can see at  'I' the price has fallen below the red line. 
Staying above the Kijun Sen (blue), breaking above the red line and the 'Black' Senkou Span A are the critical tasks for the Bulls. 
In the mean time - the mood is cloudy for the Bulls and the Bears have all the power - just as it was in the last two weekly studies. 
About time we saw some 'relief green'.

The Dow 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 19 March to 23 March 2012 - Flat lies the Kumo.

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 23 March 2012  

Quick Reference : 

The Tenkan Sen - red line, 

The Kijun Sen - blue line, 

The Chikou Span - purple line, 

The Senkou Span A - black line, 

The Senkou Span B - grey line, 

The Kumo - grey shaded area.


Recent Signals : Last week (click here) and Previous Week (click here)


We concluded our study last week, with the note that the Flat Kumo (Senkou Span B), should start attracting the Price downwards, in the weeks to come. We used the the signals marked 'F' and 'G'. Incidentally last week's candle is red.


Another input is that the Kijun Sen (blue) has gone flat for the last two candles (see H above). As one would have studied in the reading material on Ichimoku, this flat nature implies lack of momentum, flat trend and state of equilibrium which also draws the price to itself (like the Flat Kumo).


Price breaching the Tenkan Sen (red) is the first indication, we would get of a correction. This does not look like happening, anytime too soon.

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 19 March to 23 March, 2012 - Déjà vu ?

Recap: Last week (post here) we called a 'correction' and got it. While the quantum of the correction may not be something to Tom Tom about, the Bears would have woken up from their 5 week Slumber. Was our risky call really brave, or were we plain nuts? Lets study the charts updated with last week's data, to find out.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart - 23 March 2012  

S&P 500 - Month Chart (closing prices of each month in a line): The long term chart looks good, and in Bull mode. Currently nosing above last year's high, there is no major divergence of price line with the indicator below, as of now. Let's get closer to the action, as below.

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart - 23March 2012 

S&P 500 - Week Chart (each candle is 1 Week's price action): The white channel lines define the Week's channel that we follow, and the 'mode' is Bull here also. This medium term chart give us feeling of  'Déjà vu'. Notice the candle sets, that the three arrows point to. All Bearish Haramis and the first two were bought into, by the Bulls. We are discussing the fate of  the third set. One should have a re-look at how to trade this pattern (we studied it here last). 

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart - 23 March  2012  

S&P 500 - Day (EOD) Chart (each candle is 1 Day's price action): The short term charts as above, have a change in orientation of the yellow 'Day Channel lines' due to last week's price action. This chart unlike the two above are in 'neutral mode'. Price touched the middle of the Week Channel (white) and Corrected to close below the 5 EMA.

Looking Forward: Short term indicator's pointing down, does not make it a 'Correction' of substantial nature.  However before writing off our Bear Call of last weekend, as mere pause, we should look at the three arrows on the Week Chart above. Will the Bulls say 'Déjà vu' or do the Bears get third time 'Lucky' ?

EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 22 March 2012 - Channel Bottom!

Nifty - End of Day - 22 March  2012     

In our analysis of the US market last weekend (see end of post here) we concluded that we would anticipate a Correction. In our study on Nifty (see end of post here) last weekend we said that since US & Europe could correct, Indian markets would be under pressure to go Bull. World markets corrected and India too, fell today.

Yesterday, we observed that we were a nudge away from the green. The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on our EOD charts were showing a possible 'touch and go'. Circled area (from above) is zoomed (below) with a red arrow showing the touch. Bullish for the morning session, after Europe opened, we saw the 5 go below the 13 and the Nifty fell by 100 points. So one observes, that these 'touch and go' scenarios produce great Bullish and Bearish moves, simply because of punters positioning themselves too early, anticipating a crossover and then covering in a panic !

Nifty - Zoom in for 5 EMA & 13 SMA 'Touch and go' action from chart above

EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 19 March 2012 - Bingo!

Nifty - End of Day - 19 March  2012   

We concluded last weekend that the 34 EMA should be held by the Bulls to stage a comeback (see last two sections of post here). By the close of the third hour of trade the Nifty had fallen below the 34 EMA (5305) and thereon crashed by 60 odd points. Alert Bears should have enjoyed the action.

The channel bottom (green line) and our range bottom (200 DMA) beckon even as the 5/13 EMA cross stands at touch and go....touch and go (if the cross fails) produce the best bounce backs....the current hope for the Bulls.

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 12 March to 16 March, 2012 - Sedate Highs..

Recap: By the end of last week, (see Looking Forward) we saw the SP500 on Bull mode, but for the 5/13 EMA cross. Early this week the Bulls took care of that minor detail, and moved from the bottom end of their channel, (see EOD) to the exact top end...where despite crossing last year's high, the Bulls hesitate...lets find out why..

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart - 16 March 2012 

S&P 500 - Month Chart (closing prices of each month in a line): The Price line here, looks like its making a steady progress, to the red channel top. Above all short term EMAs, and with a decent rate of climb, this view looks good for the Bulls. Lets get closer, with the chart below.

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart - 16 March 2012 

S&P 500 - Week Chart (each candle is 1 Week's price action): Sticking to the bottom of our weekly channel's center line, steadfastly, for a long time now.. the Index is again in a position of strength. The only thing going for the Bears, would be the clear divergence between the price and the Histogram below it. So will the price make it to the channel top? Zoom in below..

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart - 16 March  2012 

S&P 500 - Day (EOD) Chart (each candle is 1 Day's price action): With a dedication almost boring, the Index is stuck to the Day Channel's top line, a mite below the Weekly channel's center line, for ages now. If this continues, both Bulls and Bears will fall asleep. Nah! Just kidding :). Divergences are becoming persistently loud here, as one can see from the STS Indicator below. 

Looking Forward: A decent correction looks like the best medicine for a comatose Bear and Tired Bull. Problem is, oversold Indices can go on & on, in the same track, for a long long time. However lets get brave and make a risky call....Correction time :)