Trade, Live and Thrive: 08/04/13

Sunday, August 4, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 29 July to 02 Aug: 2013 - Bull High

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 02 Aug'13

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 02 Aug'13

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 02 Aug'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Bulls reduce the 'Triple Top Threat' making new Highs #M1

Support & Resistance:

Index has also the Day channel Top, Week Channel Top and Month Channel Top as resistances on the upside #M1,#W1 & #D1.

Moving Averages:

Bulls keep above the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1.
Index slips below the 5 EMA on the EOD charts - again last week #D1.
5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Day charts #D1 choose to deflect..

Indicators:

RSI 13 slides below oversold & Divergence to Price is apparent #W2.
Stochastic 34 3 4 (now on EOD) stays oversold #D2.
Oscillator (now on EOM) pops into oversold - see earlier pops too #M2.

Bulls stay High.

Looking forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

Bulls almost clear off the Triple Top Threat conclusively ...

Support & Resistance:

New All Time High and all the Channel Tops Red, Blue and White #D1, are the next resistances for the Bulls.
The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support.

Moving Averages:

Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
5 EMA & 13 SMA #D1 - Deflection was good for Bulls.
Getting below the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1 important for Bears.

Indicators:

Oscillator #M2 keeping above oversold favors the Bulls - notice that its slipping down again..
RSI sliding below its MA #W2 (almost there) - would be good for Bears.

Bears hope one of the Channel Top Resistances hold, Bulls call for a new High and more #M1.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 29 July to 2 Aug: 2013 - Death Cross Watch 1

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 02 Aug'13

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 02 Aug'13

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Apr' 2013, onward - as on 02 Aug'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

On the Medium Term EOW #3, previous week's 'High Wave' Candle gives the Bears more cheer.
June's 'Hanging Man' Candle & May's Shooting Star on the Long Term EOM #1 Charts - activate on cue at July end.

Support & Resistance:

The 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' is the EXACT support for Bulls last week (Friday's low) #5.
The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' is the approx resistance for the Bulls last week #5.

Moving Averages:

50 SMA and 200 SMA poised to cross bearishly in a Death Cross (Black Arrow at #5).
5 EMA and 13 SMA in the Medium Term, remain crossed Bearishly #5.
Index closes below the critical 200 SMA on the Short Term #5.

Indicators:

'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 on the long term charts show Bulls at the center line.
MACD and its MA cross bearishly, MACD and Histogram ticks down #6.

Bears ride the 'High Wave' #3 some more, towards a Death Cross..

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

Combined effect of June's 'Hanging Man' Candle & May's Shooting Star on the EOM #1 help Bears at July End..
'High Wave' Candle Pattern studied last week still in play.

Support & Resistance:

The 200 SMA #5 is now resistance - for the Bulls.
The 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' is support again #5.

Moving Averages:

200 SMA and 50 SMA on the Day Charts bearishly crossing with high Volumes would be a Death Cross #5 - a deflection would see the Bulls catapult out of this dip - cross & recross would mean that August would range..
13 SMA and 5 EMA on the Long Term #1 poised to Bearishly Cross (if below 5655) or Bullishly Deflect (if above 5655) for August.

Indicators:

'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 could see the Index bounce of its center line for a new Bull run.

Bulls see hope above 5655 - Bears seek to dive some more on the High Wave Candle's effect and the Death Cross's proximity.

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Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.