Trade, Live and Thrive: 11/18/12

Sunday, November 18, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 12 November to 16 November, 2012 - Bears Gain some more

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price) (or) EOM Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - 16 November, 2012

Above is the Month Chart - EOM - analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price) (or) EOW Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - 16 November, 2012

Above is the Week Chart - EOW - analyzing Data from Q4, 2011, onward.

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move) (or) EOD Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - 16 November, 2012

Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from Oct'2012, onward.

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

The last three candles on the EOM #1 resembles a Three Inside Down - having gone below last month's close as studied - last week rewarded the Bears who caught on to this move.
Our EOW channel #3 is redrawn to include a larger time frame - now shows the price breaking out of the channel.
Support on the '23.6% Fibonacci retrace of the Oct'07 High and Mar'09 Low' #1 and #5 works as the Price comes back to end around this level.

Looking forward into the next Week:

The Blue center line of the Month Channel #1 and the '23.6% Fibonacci retrace of the Oct'07 High and Mar'09 Low' #1 and #5 are supports after this fall.
13 SMA #1 on Month Chart is immediate support for the Bulls and the MVWAP 34 on the Week chart #3 is the immediate resistance.
STS #2 position shows the long term strength at this point of time - and one sees another up move beyond above immediate resistances.

EOW channel bottom #3 could see the price testing it on a pullback, on this up move.
So staying above last week's close i.e. on the '23% Fib' - one sees the Bulls returning fire - with the pull back discussed above, to start with.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 12 November to 16 November, 2012 - Bears Score some more

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 16 November, 2012

Above is the Month Chart - EOM - analyzing Data from 2008 onward.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 16 November, 2012

Above is the Week Chart - EOW - analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward.

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 16 November, 2012

Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from July 2012, onward.

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

The signal line action vis-à-vis the MACD line was a deflect #6, giving the bears a good run.
The 13 SMA on the EOW #3, supported the Bulls.

The 5 EMA on the Day chart #5 - moved into the 13 SMA for a bearish cross as anticipated.

The short fuse indicator #2, stays up even with the Nov candle's going red.

STS holding in the oversold zone as a measure of Bull strength to come

EOD chart shows the two channels #5 which hold the Price for now.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

The two channels shown on the EOD #5 - currently keep away the complete breakdown for Bulls in the Short term - holding above these channel bottom lines, would mean a resumption of the up move.
Failure to keep above the 13 SMA on the Week chart #3, STS breaking below the Bull line #4 - would be early indicators that the Bears mean Business.
The 5 EMA and 13 SMA have crisscrossed each other 5-6 times in the past few weeks - a Bullish Cross next week or the lack of one, would measure the resolve of the Bulls.

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Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.