Trade, Live and Thrive: 04/14/12

Saturday, April 14, 2012

The Dow 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 09 April to 13 April 2012 - Bear touch..

Quick Reference :

The Tenkan Sen - red line,

The Kijun Sen - blue line,

The Chikou Span - purple line,

The Senkou Span A - black line,

The Senkou Span B - grey line,

The Kumo - grey shaded area.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:
http://www.freestockcharts.com/
http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 13 April 2012

Last 6 Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) in brief:

1. Senkou Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal

2. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal

3. Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal

4. Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal

5. The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal

6. Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (minor)

In our study, we consider as important, the signals of the previous posts, summarized above.

A. Although not an official signal, the Price crossing the Tenkan Sen (red line) is considered as an early warning sign of sentiment reversal. In this case from Bull to Bear.

Bulls are still all over this screen. Bears need to stay below the Tenkan Sen to have a chance of taking this one over.

DJI 30: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (or) EOD with the Ichimoku Cloud:

DJI 30 - End of Day Chart - 06 April 2012

Last 5 Signals seen on DJI 30 - Day Chart (EOD) in brief:

1. Senkou Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal

2. Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal

3. Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal

4. Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal

5. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal

In our study we also consider as important, the previous signals, summarized above.

B. The Chikou Span (Purple line) Crossed into the Price line and is still just above it.

C. We had Price crashing below the Kijun Sen (blue line). Price stayed below MVWAP and the red Tenkan Sen too, all week.

D. The Kumo breakout although named Bullish and Strong - saw the price retreat to close inside the Kumo.

Bears almost have this screen.

The BSE 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 09 April to 13 April 2012 - Bulls edged out..

Quick Reference :

The Tenkan Sen - red line,

The Kijun Sen - blue line,

The Chikou Span - purple line,

The Senkou Span A - black line,

The Senkou Span B - grey line,

The Kumo - grey shaded area.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/
http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 13 April 2012

Last 7 Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) in brief:

1. Senkou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal
2. Chikou Span Cross: Weak Bullish Signal
3. The Kijun sen cross: Weak Bullish Signal
4. The Flat Kumo: Bullish Signal

5. The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bullish Signal
6. The Kumo Breakout: Bearish Signal

7. The Kumo Breakout: Bearish Signal

In our study, we consider as important, the signals of the previous posts, summarized above.

A: We have this week's candle breaking out of the Kumo in another Bearish Signal . The Bulls would take heart from the support lines: Kijun Sen (blue line) and M VWAP 34, that lie below the candle.

Bears are back in force on this screen.

BSE 30: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (or) EOD with the Ichimoku Cloud:

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Day Chart - 13 April 2012

Last 7 Signals seen on BSE 30 - Day Chart (EOD) in brief:

1. Kumo Breakout: Strong Bullish Signal

2. Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal

3. Chikou Span Cross: Weak Bearish Signal

4. Senkou Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal

5. Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal

6. Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bearish Signal

7. Chikou Span Cross: Neutral Bullish - Bearish Signal

In our study we also consider as important, the previous signals, summarized above.

B. The Chikou Span Cross (purple line) of the price line, crossed in and then out - so its Bullish and then Bearish - however with the price in the Kumo we consider the effect as neutral.

C. The Kijun Sen Cross (blue line) at week beginning is Bearish and Neutral as mentioned above.

D. Price is almost near making a Bearish Kumo Breakout after staying below the Tenkan Sen (red line) and M VWAP 34 all week. The Senkou Span B that price is approaching, lies flat.

The Bears take the advantage, from Bulls in this screen.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 09 April to 13 April, 2012 - Bears have the last word..

Recap:

Our outlook, for the week gone by, on the S&P 500 was distinctly Bearish (click),

However, we choose to go with the Bulls for the Indian market (click).

Bulls kept up a stand off, while cat and mouse games ruled (click and click).

Right from under the Bull's Noses, Bears took the Index the global way, in the second half of Friday, leaving the Nifty blushing red.

What next?

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 13 April, 2012.

The last two red candles are inside the green candle of Feb'2012, in the long term chart above.

The 5 EMA would cross above the 13 SMA if the Nifty touches 5394 this month.

Currently the Bearish Harami's (Feb/Mar candles) effect, is on.

Nifty closed above the 5 EMA, Bulls remain in control of the Long term screen.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 13 April, 2012.

Slipping just under the 34 EMA, Bulls have lost the advantage.

The medium term trend had bucked Global Bearishness, until the second half of Friday.

The Bulls would want to get back above the 34 EMA, while the bears would aim for our channel bottom (black).

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart with closing prices in a line graph (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 13 April, 2012.

The journey of the index, to below the green channel bottom, was after quite a fight, as the many touches tell.

The crossovers made by the 5 EMA and 13 SMA were too many in the end, but emphasized their utility.

The MACD stayed stubbornly, sub zero.

Inability of the Index, to get above the 34 EMA, all through the week was the key for Bears.

With the medium term and short term going Bear, Bulls would look at avoiding another Lower Low.

Looking Forward:

One would watch global cues, as they seem to have a non-technical influence on the Index.

Above 34 EMA on the EOD, the Bulls can wrest back control.

The 200 DMA looks like the next stop once again.

The 34 EMA is above the 200 DMA...long term bullish.
Even if the Nifty loses a steady 50 points every session from here to month end, the 34 EMA would just about get even with the 200 DMA (Nifty would be at 4700 odd, by then :) .......).

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 09 April to 13 April, 2012 - Bears Stay over..

Recap:

Our conclusion in last weekend's analysis was 'Time to Bear it" (click).

As one expected, the week showed us a red candle and price went all the way to the 'week' channel bottom.

Our Intra week EOD Analysis, suggested that Moving VWAP 35 was resistance zone(click).

Almost on cue, S&P 500, reversed from the MVWAP 34 resistance to end 2% in the red for the week.

Lets see, if the Bears are here to stay..

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart with closing prices in a line graph (or) EOM Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - 13 April, 2012.

Index has closed below the 10 EMA.

From a long term perspective, its another correction.

Current position of the fast Stochastic is above the 80 mark, with crossover.

None of the short MAs have crossed yet.

Bulls are under a bit of pressure, Bears have a tiny toe hold.

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - 13 April, 2012.

This screen made magic last week - following our call, almost to the letter.

Price reached the Channel bottom and is below all short MAs.

None of the MAs have crossed yet.

RSI heads towards mid point.

Bulls have let this screen stay neutral, with a clear chance of bouncing off the channel bottom.

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart where each candle is 1 day's price action (or) EOD Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - 13 April, 2012.

The new Day channel is shown in Yellow.

Price has resistance at the M VWAP 34, and is nudging the channel top.

Staying above the M VWAP 34 and seeing a Bullish cross of some of the short term MAs above... would give strength to Bulls.

Looking Forward:

Breaking the 'White' Week channel on the downside is the next task for the Bears.

Bulls would use this very channel to jump out of the Day channel and above the MVWAP 34 marked.

1333 is the mark on the EOW, where the 5 EMA crosses below the 13 SMA and Bears call the shots.

A daily dose of 10 points+ should see the Bulls in command by weekend, the 5 EMA would also have crossed above the 13 SMA at 1383 on the EOD.
Bears have given no sign of leaving the short term yet.
Week end updates shall be up.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.