The Dow 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 09 April to 13 April 2012 - Bear touch..

Quick Reference : 

The Tenkan Sen - red line, 

The Kijun Sen - blue line, 

The Chikou Span - purple line, 

The Senkou Span A - black line, 

The Senkou Span B - grey line, 

The Kumo - grey shaded area.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:
http://www.freestockcharts.com/
http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page


DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 13 April 2012  

Last 6 Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) in brief: 

1. Senkou Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal

2. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal

3. Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal

4. Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal

5. The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal

6. Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak  Bearish  Signal (minor)

In our study, we consider as important, the signals of the previous posts, summarized above.

A. Although not an official signal, the Price crossing the Tenkan Sen (red line) is considered as an early warning sign of sentiment reversal. In this case from Bull to Bear.


Bulls are still all over this screen. Bears need to stay below the Tenkan Sen to have a chance of taking this one over.


DJI 30: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (or) EOD with the Ichimoku Cloud:

DJI 30 - End of  Day Chart - 06 April 2012  

Last 5 Signals seen on DJI 30 - Day Chart (EOD) in brief: 

1. Senkou Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal

2. Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal

3. Kijun Sen Cross: Weak  Bearish  Signal

4. Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal

5. Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal

In our study we also consider as important, the previous signals, summarized above.

B. The Chikou Span (Purple line) Crossed into the Price line and is still just above it.

C. We had Price crashing below the Kijun Sen (blue line). Price stayed below MVWAP and the red Tenkan Sen too, all week.

D. The Kumo breakout although named Bullish and Strong - saw the price retreat to close inside the Kumo.

Bears almost have this screen.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 02 April to 06 April, 2012 - Bulls hold steady

Recap:

Our view last weekend was that, staying above the wall and the 34 EMA, Nifty would be Bullish.

On cue, we have a green candle, albeit for a truncated week.

We see that on the EOD, there is a Bullish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA.

MACD on the EOD, continues to hang below the zero mark.

Let us study the way forward.

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 05 April, 2012. 

The Bearish Harami, we studied last weekend, remains un-triggered.

The candle for April is green, it takes support on the 13 SMA, above the 5 EMA.

Long Term Bulls, anticipate the cross of the 5 EMA above the 13 SMA. 

Bears hope that these MA lines, would 'touch and go' (reverse).

This screen is currently Bullish.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 05 April, 2012.

The candle for the week shows us the lack of confidence at higher levels(long upper tail).

Its well above the 34 EMA and currently Bullish.

Do notice the channel support, marked on the Stochastic indicator (below) also.

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart with closing prices in a line graph (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 05 April, 2012.

In our EOD Analysis intra week (click for post),  we noted the MACD's sub-zero position.

We see that there is a Bullish cross of the 5 EMA above the 13 SMA.

Price is above the 34 EMA, which for a change has started raising.

The index made another lower high (see the three lower highs (and lows) from 01.02.12).

The short term view is Neutral.

Looking Forward:

Bulls have a good take off point staying above the 5 EMA on the EOD.

Below our 'green' channel bottom on EOD, Bears take strength.

The first trading day after a truncated week, would mean a lot of catching up.

Intra Week updates shall be up.

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 19 March to 23 March, 2012 - Déjà vu ?

Recap: Last week (post here) we called a 'correction' and got it. While the quantum of the correction may not be something to Tom Tom about, the Bears would have woken up from their 5 week Slumber. Was our risky call really brave, or were we plain nuts? Lets study the charts updated with last week's data, to find out.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart - 23 March 2012  

S&P 500 - Month Chart (closing prices of each month in a line): The long term chart looks good, and in Bull mode. Currently nosing above last year's high, there is no major divergence of price line with the indicator below, as of now. Let's get closer to the action, as below.

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart - 23March 2012 

S&P 500 - Week Chart (each candle is 1 Week's price action): The white channel lines define the Week's channel that we follow, and the 'mode' is Bull here also. This medium term chart give us feeling of  'Déjà vu'. Notice the candle sets, that the three arrows point to. All Bearish Haramis and the first two were bought into, by the Bulls. We are discussing the fate of  the third set. One should have a re-look at how to trade this pattern (we studied it here last). 

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart - 23 March  2012  

S&P 500 - Day (EOD) Chart (each candle is 1 Day's price action): The short term charts as above, have a change in orientation of the yellow 'Day Channel lines' due to last week's price action. This chart unlike the two above are in 'neutral mode'. Price touched the middle of the Week Channel (white) and Corrected to close below the 5 EMA.

Looking Forward: Short term indicator's pointing down, does not make it a 'Correction' of substantial nature.  However before writing off our Bear Call of last weekend, as mere pause, we should look at the three arrows on the Week Chart above. Will the Bulls say 'Déjà vu' or do the Bears get third time 'Lucky' ?

EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 22 March 2012 - Channel Bottom!

Nifty - End of Day - 22 March  2012     

In our analysis of the US market last weekend (see end of post here) we concluded that we would anticipate a Correction. In our study on Nifty (see end of post here) last weekend we said that since US & Europe could correct, Indian markets would be under pressure to go Bull. World markets corrected and India too, fell today.

Yesterday, we observed that we were a nudge away from the green. The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on our EOD charts were showing a possible 'touch and go'. Circled area (from above) is zoomed (below) with a red arrow showing the touch. Bullish for the morning session, after Europe opened, we saw the 5 go below the 13 and the Nifty fell by 100 points. So one observes, that these 'touch and go' scenarios produce great Bullish and Bearish moves, simply because of punters positioning themselves too early, anticipating a crossover and then covering in a panic !

Nifty - Zoom in for 5 EMA & 13 SMA 'Touch and go' action from chart above

The BSE Sensex 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 05 March to 09 March 2012 - Bears have it all.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart - 09 March 2012

Please read 'Preamble' from here. We are replacing the Ichimoku Study on the Month chart with this Weekly Study.

The BSE Sensex 30 - Ichimoku - End of Week Study.

A: Senkou Span Cross: On the chart the grey cloud is the Kumo. Notice that the cloud's borders have black and grey lines - and they cross each other at the point marked by 'a'. So the Senkou span A (black line) crosses the Senkou span B (grey line) from the top down, and that makes it a 'Bearish Cross'. 

The effect of this Cross was felt 26 weeks before the cross, at the candle marked by 'A' - as this candle is below the Kumo we have a 'Strong Senkou span Bearish Cross' 

The Index has fallen from 18500 odd to 15500 after this signal was felt at 'A'

B: Chikou Span Cross: The purple line is called the Chikou Span. At the point marked by 'b' it crosses through the price curve from the bottom up, this is a bullish signal or buy. 

The effect of this cross is felt 26 weeks after the cross at the candle marked by 'B' - however as this candle is below the Kumo we have a 'Weak Buy on Chikou span Cross'.

We notice that the index moves up a couple of candles, faces resistance at the Kumo and then falls - after the event at candle 'B'.  

C: The kijun sen cross signal is given when price crosses over the kijun sen(blue line). If it crosses the price curve from the bottom up, then it is a bullish signal. A weak kijun sen cross Buy signal takes place when a bullish cross happens below the kumo. We have a weak Bullish cross.

D: The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross happens when the tenkan sen crosses over the kijun sen. If the tenkan sen crosses above the kijun sen, then it is a bullish signal. A weak tenkan sen/kijun sen cross Buy signal takes place when a bullish cross happens below the kumo. We have a weak Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross.

E: The price bounced back from inside the Kumo (grey cloud) and broke out below it.

Bears seem to have it all going for them as above.

F: The last input - we see that the price just about took support on the 'Tenkan sen (red line)'. If it now moves back into the Kumo and breaks out above it... the Long term Bull will smile. 

Also see the action of Price on the M VWAP at the last candle.

S&P 500 - Triple Screen Analysis - Week: 05 March to 09 March 2012 - Doji'ng the Bears..

Recap: The SP500 was resisted at last year's high and we looked for direction in last week's study (post here). The index had developed a Bearish Harami on the EOD and it was below the 5 EMA. However  we had assessed then, that it was not yet 'Advantage Bears'. 

In last weeks action the Bulls took the index back above the 5 EMA on the EOD charts and this fightback keeps the Bulls on top - what next?

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart - 09 March 2012

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM): The MA crossovers we studied last week are still in place, the divergences have vanished as of now. This chart looks distinctly Bullish, but for the hesitation written on the peak - in struggling to move above last year's high.

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart - 09 March 2012

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW): After 4 weeks of staying above the 5 EMA, this week's candle has taken support near the 10 EMA. The Bulls have dodged the Bears this week with a 'Doji'. So let us read about that - as a refresher from some free resources on the net...

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:introduction_to_candlesticks
http://www.candlestickforum.com/PPF/Parameters/12_221_/candlestick.asp
http://thepatternsite.com/NorthernDoji.html

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart - 09 March  2012

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD): The Bulls were happy to stay within the same channel as last week, and stage a bounce back, to end on top, above the 5 EMA. The Bearish cross of the 5 EMA below the 13 SMA remains - leaving the Bulls with diminished momentum. 

Since we are a Study Blog - here is something to mull on...inspired by the last three candles on the chart above..

http://www.moneycontrol.com/technicals/news/candlestick-patterns/advance-block-bearish-reversal-pattern_578785.html
http://www.fxwords.com/b/bearish-advance-block.html
http://thepatternsite.com/ThreeWhiteSoldiers.html

Looking Forward: The long term Charts viz. the EOM and EOW, are in Bull mode. On the EOD one sees some hope for the Bears. If the 5 EMA 13 SMA cross remains Bearish and the price then breaks below 5 EMA, one sees early signs of Bear strength. Staying within the current channel on the EOD keeps the Bull safe for now.

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 17 02 2012 - Channels and Crossovers..

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 17 Feb 2012

It was about a month ago that we defined the channel you see on the EOD above (post here). We have a precise climax at the channel top happening now - 800 odd Nifty points later.

The crossover of the 34 EMA to above the 200 DMA on the EOD has significance from a long term view. So does the 5 EMA - 13 SMA cross on the EOM mentioned last week (post here). They usually signify the return of the Bull market.

Here are some free reads on MA crossover for the weekend....

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_strategies:arthur_hill_on_movin
http://www.traderslog.com/moving-average-crossovers/

CNX Nifty: Tri-star Doji anyone?

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 13  Jan  2012 - Candles

Looks almost like three Dojis - that evokes memories of a Tri-star Doji - Here are the write ups from a free resource on the internet - Read the examples also :) Your call....

http://thepatternsite.com/TriStarBull.html
http://thepatternsite.com/TriStarBear.html

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - Week starting 26 Dec 2011

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - Week starting 26 Dec 2011

In our last post on this subject we had looked at the possibility of the channel breach happening in 2011 .. one now sees the channels intact as above. Breach or retreat from the upper channel line (of the downward /falling channel)  is what one shall study early next year...

Ichimoku Study - BSE Sensex - End 2011

BSE  Sensex - Month Chart - End of 2011 - with the Ichimoku  Cloud

This study is rather long term - appropriate for a new year - so here is wishing you a happy 2012 :) - happy learning !!

The Ichimoku Cloud is a versatile indicator that defines support, resistance, identifies trend direction, gauges momentum and gives one trading signals.

The Ichimoku parts - see chart above..

The Tenkan Sen - red line
The Kijun Sen - blue line
The Chikou Span - purple line
The Senkou Span A - black line
The Senkou Span B - grey line
The Kumo - grey shaded area

Read up the funda on this at the reference link at the bottom of this post to learn about this indicator..

Our observations using the Monthly chart - each candle is one month - period 2004 to 2011 - 7 year study.
Past:
1. Indian Equity markets were in Bull mode from 2004.
2. The crash of 2008 brought the market into the kumo (grey shade) - just about neutral / flat zone (not even bear zone)!!
3. Since the 2009 rise from the kumo - it was soon back to Bull mode.

Present:
1. We have a weak kijun sen (blue) cross Sell signal as the recent bearish cross happens above the kumo.
2. We have a weak tenkan sen (red) /kijun sen (blue) cross Sell signal - as the bearish cross happens above the kumo.
3. The current close price (as depicted by the chikou span - purple) is lower than the price 26 periods ago,  this indicates that there is a potential for more bearish price action to come.
4. The price is above the Kumo at present and that is Bull zone.
5. There is a Senkou Span Cross coming up which may be Bullish based on present view...

Some useful free links I googled -

To create Ichimoku Charts - if your chart provider does not have it...

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

To learn about the Ichimoku Charts

https://www.ichimokutrade.com/articles/Ichimoku_Ebook.pdf

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:ichimoku_cloud

For the latest study click this link

Update - End of Day : 30 December 2011

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 30 12 2011

Our note at the previous post 'Looking forward' mentions two scenarios - the Bull scenario started off in the first half of  the week and the Bear scenario took over in the second half - there was also a Bullish crossover of the 5 EMA to above the 13 SMA followed by a Bearish cross of the same averages this very same week as seen at the right end  of the chart above. A hard fought week - Bears won.