Trade, Live and Thrive: 09/01/13

Sunday, September 1, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 26 August to 30 August: 2013 - Bears Hold Down

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 30 Aug'13

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 30 Aug'13

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from July'2013, onward - as on 30 Aug'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

The 'Three Inside Down' that we studied on the weekly charts takes Index lower - Bears get a Red Week #W1 and Month #M1..

Support & Resistance:

Index had the 13 SMA on the Week Channel #W1 as resistance for Bulls on the upside.
The 5 EMA was support for the Bulls on the way down #M1.

Moving Averages:

Index Closes the week below the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
5 EMA and 13 SMA remain crossed bearishly on the EOD charts #D1.
On the EOW - 5 EMA and 13 SMA look poised for a bearish cross #W1.
Index keeps above the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1.

Indicators:

RSI 13 peeks above the 50 mark - MA yet to cross the RSI #W2.
Stochastic 34 3 4 reaches the over-sold #D2.
Oscillator dips below the over-bought, for the Month Close #M2.

Bears retain control of the Short Term Screen. Nudging towards control of the Medium Term too..

Looking forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

On the Medium Term Chart the Three Inside Down we studied earlier this month, is still on ... #W1.

Support & Resistance:

13 SMA on the Medium Term Chart is the next resistance for the Bulls, while the 34 MVWAP, #W1 is the Support..
Beyond these the 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support and the Last All Time High is the resistance seen #M1.

Moving Averages:

Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
5 EMA & 13 SMA on the Medium Term Charts #W1 - poised to cross Bearishly - to be watched.
Staying below the 13 SMA on the Week Charts - EOW #W1 important for Bears.

Indicators:

Oscillator #M2 keeping below oversold favors the Bears.
RSI crossing above its MA will work for the Bulls #W1

Bears look to the 'Three Inside Down' #W1 giving more gains, Bulls look to get above the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 26 August to 30 August: 2013 - Takuri, Once More..

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 30 Aug'13

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 30 Aug'13

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Apr' 2013, onward - as on 30 Aug'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

On the Medium Term EOW #3, the 'High Wave' Candle studied few weeks ago, gives the Bears another Takuri Week, after a volatile Month Close.

Support & Resistance:

The 50% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' stands again last week #5.
Index after cracking the Day Channel and pulling back to its bottom #5 exactly last week - repeats performance this week too.
The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the 2008 Low to the All time High #3 - supports the Weekly close again.

Moving Averages:

50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bearishly in a Death Cross #5.
200 SMA on the Medium Term #3 - holds the Index in closing, for the second week running..
5 EMA and 13 SMA cross bearishly #1, giving the Bears the Long Term Screen..

Indicators:

'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 on the long term charts show Bulls slipping below the center line for the Month close.
MACD Histograms diverge positive relative to price again, MACD and its MA poised for a cross #6.
STS #4 stays down after diving into the oversold after 18 odd months.

Bears ride the 'High Wave' #3 to a Death Cross #5, get a 700+ point fall and run into the Takuri Line twice...

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

Takuri Line #3 studied last week is still on...

Support & Resistance:

The day channel bottom #5 is again the resistance - for the Bulls.
The 50% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' remains support for the Bulls like in last week #5.

Moving Averages:

200 SMA and 50 SMA on the Day Charts remaining Bearishly Crossed #5, keeps the Bulls under pressure.
200 SMA on the EOW - to be watched for failure.
13 SMA and 5 EMA on the Short Term #5 seem to want a Bullish Cross.

Indicators:

STS remaining in the over-sold zone - critical for Bears to retain the Medium Term.

Bulls would love a Golden Cross #5 - Bears hope to stay below the EOD Channel bottom #5.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 26 August to 30 August - 2013 - Kijun Sen touch

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 30 Aug'13

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

Bears close the Index below the Kijun Sen last week #2..
Chikou Span even closer to the Price line #1.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen is steady #3.

Bears hold the Index below the Tenkan Sen and just about manage a cross below the Kijun Sen...

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bulls need to get index above the Tenkan Sen, to get back the advantage #2.
Bears keep the advantage staying below the Kijun Sen #3.
Chikou Span's proximity to Price line important - to be watched for cross or deflection #1.
Widening gap between the Senkou Span A&B is a concern area for Bears.

Bears look at keeping their advantage .... Bulls seek to get back above the Tenkan Sen #2.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 26 August to 30 August - 2013 - Attraction and Repulsion

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 30 Aug'13

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku, can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

Flat Kumo #3 continues to hold the Index - even as Bulls attempt a bounce off it.
Index meets the Flat Senoku Span #3 again last week.
Chikou Span slips further down- parallel and close to the price line #1.
Bearish Senoku Span Cross - near #4.

Bears stay attracted to the Flat Senkou Span B #3 see study done 7 weeks ago. Bulls attempt a repulsion Bounce.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Chikou Span moving down parallel to price line, in close enough proximity to Bullishly break into it #1.
Recross of the Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen is the next Bull hope #2.
Bulls continue to attempt a bounce off the Flat Senoku Span B to get out of the Kumo. #3.
Bears would want to see the Bearish Senoku Span Cross #4 and a Bearish Kumo Break out #3.

Bulls look to bounce out of the Kumo with a Chikou Span Cross - Bears eye the Bearish Senoku Span Cross and Kumo Break out - down below - for more honey - #4 ...

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.