Trade, Live and Thrive: 07/07/12

Saturday, July 7, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 02 July to 06 July, 2012 - Bulls Hesitate..

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move) (or) EOM Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - 06 July, 2012

Above is the Month Chart - EOM - for analyzing Data from mid 2009 onwards.

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - 06 July, 2012.

Above is the Week Chart - EOW - for analyzing Data from Q1 2012 onwards.

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move) (or) EOD Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - 06 July, 2012.

Above is the Day Chart - EOD - for analyzing Data from Q3 2012 onwards.

Learning from the Past Week: (click)

The Bull's hope for a 'Three inside up' on the EOM 5 or 'Three outside up' on the EOW 3 were 'put on hold', by last week's price action.

As against our call of 1353+ we have 1355 as close for the week - this means that on the EOW, the 5 EMA and 13 SMA are neck to neck for a bearish cross 3 next week, below this mark.

Earlier in the week, the Bulls stayed above the MVWAP 34 and ended above the 13 SMA on the EOD.1

Index closed above the 5 EMA, on the EOM 5.

Looking forward into the next Week:

The Bulls have given up the advantage, that June got them.

The Negative divergence on the EOD 2 is a point for the Bear camp.

A Bearish Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW 3, is sure to add to the Bull's woes.

The EOW shows the RSI staying above its Moving Average 4 - good for the Bulls.

Index staying above the 5 EMA on EOM 5 - one sees the Bulls fight back ... else the Bears carry of from where they left off last week...

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 02 July to 06 July, 2012 - Bulls surge and pause..

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 06 July, 2012

Above is the Month Chart - EOM - for analyzing Data from 2008 onwards.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 06 July, 2012.

Above is the Week Chart - EOW - for analyzing Data from 2010 onwards.

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 06 July, 2012.

Above is the Day Chart - EOD - for analyzing Data from 2012 start, onwards.

Learning from the Past Week: (click)
As studied last week, we see the possibility of the bullish 'Three Outside up' on the EOM "7"
The EOD chart shows the break above the old channel (black) and hold below the red top of the current channel. "1"
Staying above the 5 EMA of the EOW - we saw the Nifty scaling new heights "4"

Looking Forward into the next Week:
The bullish 'Three Outside up' on the EOM "7" fails, if the Nifty falls below last month's close i.e. 5279.
We had analyzed and called the Dawn for Bulls (click) when the Nifty was at the Blue center line of the EOW channel "4" & "6"- now its nudging the channel top - Bears Next?
Volume for this rise has been less than that of the previous rise."5" - Not good for Bulls.
Staying above the 5 EMA and the Black Top of the old channel on the EOD "1" - We expect the Bulls to run on...
The Distance between the 50 and 200 SMA was contracting last week "2" - good for Bulls.
Keeping above the 5279 mark next week or better still, the 5 EMA on the EOD one expects the Bulls to carry on ... else the Bears break in ...

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 02 July to 06 July, 2012 - Bears force the Cross

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as marked on chart below:

Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)

The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (Te)

The Kijun sen cross: Weak Bearish Signal (K)

The Kijun sen cross: Strong Bullish Signal (K)

Tenkan Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (Te)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (T)

DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 06 July, 2012

Learning from the Past Week: (Click)

We suggested in our study last week that we would have a Bearish Cross of the Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen.

That is what we got, along with a red candle, last week.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

While the Bearish Cross of the Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen is bad news for the Bulls, they are still in a good place.

Staying above the MVWAP 34 and the Kijun Sen - Bulls can reverse this cross.

Bears having smelt the bacon, would push for the Kumo again.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 02 July to 06 July, 2012 - Kumo Breakout !

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as shown on chart below:

The Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (K)

The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (T)

Chikou Span Cross: Weak Bullish Signal (C)

The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Weak  Bullish   Signal (Te)
The Kijun Sen Cross:  Weak  Bullish  Signal (K)
The Kumo Break-out:  Bullish  Signal (B)

BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 06 July, 2012

Learning from the Past Week: (Click)
The Index peeked out of the Kumo last week (B).
Senkou Span B as a resistance did not hold.
From here we have a long stretch of Flat Kumo - i.e Senkou Span B is flat.
For more on what the Flat Kumo means, do revisit this post (click)

Looking forward into the next Week:
Bulls are expected to pull higher, after the Kumo Breakout.
However the flat Kumo would pull back the Bulls, even after the Kumo Breakout.
Confirmation on Daily chart is advised.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.