Trade, Live and Thrive: 07/14/14

Monday, July 14, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls hold at Support - Week 3 of July 2014.

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) EOM Chart (or) Month Chart: 1 candle = 1 month's price action

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) EOW Chart (or) Week Chart: 1 candle = 1 week's price action

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) EOD Chart (or) Day Chart: 1 candle = 1 day's price action

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Bears produce a Harami with a red week candle #W1.
Closing white (green in our screen) Marubozu of last week chooses reversal and not continuation #W1.

Support & Resistance:

ATH (All Time High) was resistance and the 5 EMA (weekly) was support #W1.

Moving Averages:

The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, touch on the EOD #D1.

Indicators:

RSI 13 stays in the over bought #W2.
TSI continues holding above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls retain control of all Screens - Bears fail to close below the weekly 5 EMA #W1.

Looking forward into this Week:

Patterns:

Harami (Bearish) on the Medium Term Screen is now active (Study links here, here or elsewhere).

Support & Resistance:

5 EMA on the EOW #W1 at a Index reading of 1961 is support for the week, while the ATH is resistance.

Moving Averages:

The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, poised to cross bearishly on the EOD #D1 - if the next Day candle Closes below 1967.

Indicators:

Stochastic 34 3 4, staying back in the over-bought zone, works for the Bulls #D2.

Wrap:

Bulls seek to go above the last ATH i.e. 1986 - after a lucky 13 weeks above the weekly 5 EMA, Bears want to crack 1961 on the downside #W1.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bulls Hold - Week 3 of July 2014.

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 11 July'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bears push back index from ATH to Tenkan Sen #W2.
Gap between Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen steady #W2.
Gap between Senoku Span A-B steady #W3.

Wrap: Bears fail to get below Tenkan Sen again #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls look at new ATHs #W2.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
Bulls wary of the Chikou span bearishly crossing the Price line #W1.

Wrap: Bulls look to make new ATHs above the Tenkan Sen, Bears want life below the Tenkan Sen #W2.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bears smell honey - Week 3 of July 2014.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 11 July'14

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 11 July'14

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from May'2014, onward - as on 11 July'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Index falls dramatically to make an Engulfing Pattern #W1.
White (in our chart Green) Marubozo of last week, chooses reversal and not continuation #W1.

Support & Resistance:

Month Pivot's R1 was the exact resistance #D1 last week.
Index passes through 5 EMA on the EOW #W1 and Wall for July (7494) to hold above the Daily 50 SMA #D1.

Moving Averages:

On EOD, the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, cross Bearishly #D1.

Indicators:

STS Pull Back (study) stays below the resistance (earlier support) line, but is still in the overbought zone #W2.
TRD remains shy, near the 76.4 % Fibonacci retrace #M2.

Wrap:

Bears take over the short term screen, while Bulls hold just above the 50 SMA on the Daily Chart #D1.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Patterns:

Engulfing Pattern on the Medium Term Screen is now active (Study links here, here or elsewhere).
Bearish Engulfing turning into a Three Outside Down (Study links here, here or elsewhere), is the next Bear Hope and Bull Nightmare #W1.

Support & Resistance:

Bears next want to reach & crack the 13 SMA on the EOW (7292) #W1.
The Bulls need to live life above the July Wall (7494, Wall = Approx Hawala rate - study link here, here or elsewhere) and defend the 50 SMA #D1.

Moving Averages:

Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on and steady, index is above these SMAs #D1.

Indicators:

TRD Indicator keeping below the 76.4% retrace is good for the Bears #M2.
STS getting above resistance (earlier support) line, helps Bull Cause #W2.

Wrap:

Bears look to break the 13 SMA on the EOW next #W1, Bulls seek to get back above the July Wall and defend the 50 SMA #D1.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Taken - Week 3 of July 2014.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 11 July'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bears force a close below Tenkan Sen after 20 failed attempts #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap flares up #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap edges up #W2

Wrap: Bears succeed in closing index below Tenkan Sen, Bulls hold recent lows #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

The Chikou Span, keeping current altitude, will need a few months to meet the price-line #W1.
Bulls want to stay above recent lows and get back above the Tenkan Sen #W2.

Wrap: Bears look to keep index below the Tenkan sen, Bull focus is to stay above recent lows and make it above the Tenkan Sen #W2.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.