Trade, Live and Thrive: 04/21/13

Sunday, April 21, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 15 April to 19 April, 2013 - Bear Fight back

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 19 April'13

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from OND, 2011 onward - as on 19 April'13

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 19 April'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bears use the 'All Time High Line' 1597 as resistance to fall back 3% #M1

The short term screen reverts to Bear mode - other screens still Bull.

5 EMA crosses Bearishly below the 13 SMA #D1.
Index sees MVWAP34 on Day Screen as resistance to up move on Friday last #D1.

Triple top on Long Term Charts - keeps the Bear hopes going.

RSI and its MA remain crossed bearishly and slip below oversold #W2.

Position of the STS and its MA #M1 - show Bull strength in the long term.

Bears get back the short term screen..

The Ellipses marked #M1, #W1 and #D1 indicate the hot spots on the long, medium and short term charts respectively.

As one can see - we are zooming into the action starting #M1 through #W1 and get up close in #D1.

Looking forward into the next Week:

Day channel's, bottom green line is support and the MVWAP34 the resistance for the Bulls #D1.

Bulls aim would want to clear the Triple Top Threat next...

Keeping the price, above the 5 EMA on the EOW #3, bulls remain strong.

Triple Top on the Long Term Screen, remains the bane of the Bulls for some more time

Next booster of retaking the 5 EMA short term #D1, needed for Bulls.
Developing Bearish Harami #M1 to be watched.

Breaking the Day Channel's Bottom Green Line #D1 is the next task for the Bears...

Bears have the Triple Top Threat as the next high hope...Bulls would look at getting back the Short Term Screen..

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 15 April to 18 April, 2013 - Three Outside Down Effect: Pause

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls get above our mark of 5538, the 13 SMA on EOM #1, early in the week and follow it with a bounce.
Position of the STS on the EOW, gave the Bulls support #4.
The Bulls take over the Short Term screen and also move the EOW screen to neutral zone.

Bulls are stopped by the 13 SMA on the EOW #1.

Price heads back to the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the Jan'12 low to All time high #5.
MACD histogram ticks up #6.
Index gets above the 200 SMA and 50 SMA last week #5.

Taking support near the 13 SMA on the Month Charts - Bulls make a seriously vigorous intra-month bounce #1.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

50 SMA and 200 SMA, convergence towards a death cross to be watched #5.

Getting below the 5538, the 13 SMA on the Month Charts #1 for the rest of the month, is important for Bears - to continue the fall.

Bearish Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA to be watched for #5.

Bulls look to get above the 13 SMA on the Week Chart #3.

Support for the coming week is the 61.8% Fibonacci Retrace of the Jan'12 low to All time high #5.

Day channel top #5 and 13 SMA on the EOW #3 are the resistances.

The Three Outside Down's effect pauses, if the Bears cannot get below 5538 (EOW).

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Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.