Monday, January 19, 2015

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Long Term 3 Inside Down (stays on) - Week 4 of January 2015.

Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

  • Bear hope up  after November and December Candles form Bearish Harami. Last three Monthly Candles now make a 'Three Inside Down' - for now - #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bears keep the index below the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 and MVWAP 34 on the EOD #D1, most of last week -  Bulls hold above the 34 MVWAP on the Medium Term Screen #W1 and 200 SMA on the EOD #D1.
Moving Averages:  
    • 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the medium term screen good for a Bullish Deflection or Bearish Cross #W1.
    • RSI 13 in the 60s #W2.

    Bears maintain hopes of a Long Term Three Inside Down by closing below 2059 #D1.
    Bulls keep above the Short Term 200 SMA #D1.

    Looking forward into this Week:

    • Broadening Top (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) seen on the Day Chart - follow up re-formed top - its bottom is near the Fibonacci 76.4% mark.
    • Bearish Harami is now active on the Long Term Screen and could trigger a 'Three Inside Down' #M1 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere).
    Support & Resistance: 
    • 13 SMA on the EOW (2048) #W1 and the Monthly 5 EMA (2023), are resistances the Bulls look to get above, this week.
    • MVWAP 34 on the EOW #W1 and 200 SMA on the EOD #D1, are supports for the index, which Bears would want to break below
    Moving Averages:
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Medium Term Charts stay crossed bearishly below as long as the index is below 2062 #W1.
    • TSI, slipping below the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace by month end, gets Bull Hope down #M2.

    Bulls seek to deny the Bears a Long Term 'Three Inside Down' by reaching & staying above 2059 #M1.
    Bears look to get below last low on the EOD and crack the 200 SMA #D1.

    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Falls - Week 4 of January 2015.

    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 

    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Index retests last week's low and closes the week just below the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen flat and gap steady #W2.
    Senoku Span A & B gap flat #W3.

    Wrap: Bulls fail to close above the Tenkan Sen after a repeat deep dive to near the Kijun Sen #W2.

    Looking Forward into this Week:

    Bears aim for a journey back to the Kumo, with a close below the Kijun Sen next #W2.
    Bearish Cross of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, at current range, next on Bear Agenda #W2.
    Chikou Span Cross/Deflection of the Index can show direction going forward #W2.

    Wrap: Bulls look to get back above the Tenkan Sen, the Bear's next target the Kjun Sen #W2.

    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 3 Outside Down stays unDone - Week 4 of January 2015.

    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

    • November and December 2014 candles on Month screen #M1, formed a 'Bearish Engulfing' with a month close at 8283 #M1. Index closed previous week at 8285.
    • Last week Bulls pull index up to 8514, dampening the Bear hopes for a Three Outside down by month end #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index closes above all the MAs that we track.
    • Bulls peek above the Day Channel's blue mid-line #D1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, poised again for deflection or cross #D1.
    • MACD and its MA break above the zero line  #D2.
    • STS stays in the over bought #W2.

    Bulls after keeping above our mark of 8283 the previous week, breakout to control all three screens Bears lose the advantage and are left defending the ATH or R1 on the Month Pivot #M1.

    Looking Forward into this Week:

    • 'Bearish Engulfing' on the Monthly Charts becomes a 'Three Outside Down', if January Closes below 8283 (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index resistances that the Bulls would want to get above this week, are the previous ATH (8627) and R1 on the Monthly Pivot #M1
    • Support Levels that the Bears would love to get below, are 8368 and the Wall for January (8174)
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - these MA's are currently steady #D1.
    • Bullish Deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the EOW will continue, if index closes the week above 8368 #W1.
    • STS, moving below the overbought, would pause the 3+ quarter long Bull domination of the Medium and Long Term Screens #W2.

    Wrap :
    Staying well above 8283, Bulls intend to deny the Bears the advantage, or a Long Term 'Three Outside Down' #M1.
    Bears see some action begin below 8368, with a shot at getting below the October'14, low on the EOD #D1.

    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Holds - Week 4 of January 2015.

    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 

    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Index  after breaking out above the Tenkan Sen, moves above the previous high #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - gap increases #W3.
    The gap between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen redices #W2

    Wrap: Index edges up, out of the current range around the Tenkan Sen and the Kijun Sen

    Looking Forward into this Week:

    Senkou Span 'A & B' converging will be bad for the Bulls #W3.
    A Bearish, Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few more weeks #W1.
    Bears seek to get the Kijun Sen above the Tenkan Sen and take out the last Index low #W2.

    Wrap: Bulls Seek life above the last All Time High, whereas Bears look at moving the index below the current 'Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen' range