Trade, Live and Thrive: 12/23/13

Monday, December 23, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 3 inside up green - Week 4 of December 2013.

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) EOM Chart (or) Month Chart - each candle is 1 month's price action

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) EOW Chart (or) Week Chart - each candle is 1 week's price action

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) EOD Chart (or) Day Chart - each candle is 1 day's price action

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Bullish '3 Inside up' #M1, on the Long Term Charts kept November green - December candle turns green after honors are wrested back by Bulls with a new ATH.

Support & Resistance:

Index takes off from support at the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1 and sail above our mark of 1785 to make a new ATH.
EOW channel top was nearest resistance #W1.

Moving Averages:

With the Bullish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA - Bulls get their direction last week.
Bulls with the new ATH, end above all the MAs we track across all screens.

Indicators:

RSI 13, manages to stay in the overbought #W2.
Month Chart Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls take off from support at the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1 to get a new ATH - Bears hold the EOW channel top..

Looking forward into this Week:

Patterns:

Long Term Chart's Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) #M1 - still active.

Support & Resistance:

200 SMA and EOD channel Bottom on the Short Term Chart are Support for the Bulls, while the 'All Time High' Line and the Channel Top #W1 are resistances.
Bulls dominate all three screens.

Moving Averages:

Bears need to get below the 5 EMA on the EOW (1797) to get a life #W1.

Indicators:

Stochastic 34 3 4 in the overbought zone, works for the Bulls #D1

Wrap:

Bears see life below 1797 and trust the EOW channel top #W1 holds the Bulls - Bulls expect to make new highs and keep December's candle green #M1.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Hanging with the Stars - Week 4 of December 2013.

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 20 Dec'13

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls get a new ATH after the 'shooting star' week hangs, and the consequent red candles #W2.
Senoku Span A & B widen #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen opens wide #W2.

Wrap: Bulls rise from Tenkan Sen to another ATH #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Chikou Span thrusts away from Price line #W1.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen wide, giving the Bulls some relief #W2.
Critical for Bulls to stay above support at Tenkan Sen #W2.

Wrap: Bulls look to keep momentum and 'Hang' with the stars while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen cracks #W2.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Support at 13 again - Week 4 of December 2013.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 20 Dec'13

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 20 Dec'13

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 20 Dec'13

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Bulls make the December candle Green in line with the long term 'Three Inside up' #M1.
November's 'Hanging man influence' #M1 - on hold last week.
Last three candles on the EOW #W1, show a failed 'Three Outside Down'.

Support & Resistance:

Bulls again find support around the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.

Moving Averages:

EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bullishly in a Golden Cross #D1.
Bulls find support at the confluence of the 34 EMA and 50 SMA on the EOD #D1.
Bulls yet to dominate the Short Term Screen as the 5 EMA stayed below the 13 SMA, all last week on the Day Chart #D1.

Indicators:

STS stays above resistance line #W2, which was a strong support for Bulls as expected.

Wrap:

Bulls hold on to the short term screen - Bears again fail at the Weekly 5 EMA #W1.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Patterns:

Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1, still active after producing a new ATH in December.
Hanging man (study here, here or elsewhere) candle of November, continues to influence the above.

Support & Resistance:

34 EMA, 50 SMA and Channel Mid line remain Good Supports #D1.
Week channel top #W1 remains a pretty decent resistance for Bulls.

Moving Averages:

Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can continue to give the Bulls verve to attempt new ATHs.
Keeping above the 5 EMA on the EOW (6200), #W1, Bulls retain momentum to attempt another attack on the recent ATH #W1.

Indicators:

STS keeping above its support line, works for the Bulls #W2.

Wrap:

Bulls seek to keep clear above the 13 SMA (EOW) and attempt another attack on the ATH - Bear hope rests on the Hanging man candle of November #M1.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bulls on Top - Week 4 of December 2013.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 20 Dec'13

Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls on top again as they retake the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Senkou Span gap widens in the making of a thicker Kumo #W3.

Wrap: Bears on the back foot as the Bulls retake the Tenkan Sen #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Chikou Span keeping above the Price Line critical for Bull moves #W1.
Bulls need to keep above the Tenkan Sen to remain in the game #W2.
Thicker Kumo means future support for Bulls if the Index is above the Kumo then #W3.

Wrap: Bears look get the Index below the Tenkan Sen #W2. Bulls eye the ATH once more.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.