Sunday, March 11, 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen Analysis - Week: 05 March to 09 March 2012 - Poised !

Recap: The Nifty drifted below the 34 EMA on the EOD last week (post here)- bounced off the 200 DMA (post here) and is just in the Neutral zone as of  last weekend. The EOW chart also shows a precise take off from the 34 EMA on the weekly charts. Overall our note that the 34 EMA and 200 DMA zone, would hold the bears, rang true.

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 09 M arch 2012
CNX Nifty 50 - Month Chart (each candle is 1 month): Taking support on the 5 EMA the index has closed above the 13 SMA. We now zoom into the area marked with a blue square for a closer look..below.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 09 March  2012
CNX Nifty 50 - Week Chart (each candle is 1 week): With a clinical take off from the 34 EMA (see blue oval) the Index almost formed a Doji this week. Bulls would have been confident going into Budget week if the close were above the 5 EMA. The STS shows the action of the resistance line. We now magnify the portion in the Blue square with the chart below.

Nifty - End of Day - 09 March  2012
CNX Nifty 50 - EOD Chart (line chart of close prices):  The closing price disguises the action on Wednesday where the Nifty bounced off the 200 DMA like a vetran! The 5 EMA and the 35 EMA form a touch and go (Bullish) as of now. Bullish cross of the 5 EMA above the 13 EMA should be the precursor for the next Bull move. Bulls Smile above 5343 for Monday and Laugh above 5484 (Wall) for the month. 

Looking Forward: World markets (US, Europe) are largely back in the green. India as seen in the previous study is not is the best of places after the recent fall.  With the anticipated volatility, our range on the EOD chart should give some good trading moves. Trending times are below the 200 DMA or above the Wall.

The BSE Sensex 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 05 March to 09 March 2012 - Bears have it all.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart - 09 March 2012

Please read 'Preamble' from here. We are replacing the Ichimoku Study on the Month chart with this Weekly Study.

The BSE Sensex 30 - Ichimoku - End of Week Study.

A: Senkou Span Cross: On the chart the grey cloud is the Kumo. Notice that the cloud's borders have black and grey lines - and they cross each other at the point marked by 'a'. So the Senkou span A (black line) crosses the Senkou span B (grey line) from the top down, and that makes it a 'Bearish Cross'. 
The effect of this Cross was felt 26 weeks before the cross, at the candle marked by 'A' - as this candle is below the Kumo we have a 'Strong Senkou span Bearish Cross' 
The Index has fallen from 18500 odd to 15500 after this signal was felt at 'A'

B: Chikou Span Cross: The purple line is called the Chikou Span. At the point marked by 'b' it crosses through the price curve from the bottom up, this is a bullish signal or buy. 
The effect of this cross is felt 26 weeks after the cross at the candle marked by 'B' - however as this candle is below the Kumo we have a 'Weak Buy on Chikou span Cross'.
We notice that the index moves up a couple of candles, faces resistance at the Kumo and then falls - after the event at candle 'B'.  

C: The kijun sen cross signal is given when price crosses over the kijun sen(blue line). If it crosses the price curve from the bottom up, then it is a bullish signal. A weak kijun sen cross Buy signal takes place when a bullish cross happens below the kumo. We have a weak Bullish cross.

D: The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross happens when the tenkan sen crosses over the kijun sen. If the tenkan sen crosses above the kijun sen, then it is a bullish signal. A weak tenkan sen/kijun sen cross Buy signal takes place when a bullish cross happens below the kumo. We have a weak Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross.

E: The price bounced back from inside the Kumo (grey cloud) and broke out below it.

Bears seem to have it all going for them as above.

F: The last input - we see that the price just about took support on the 'Tenkan sen (red line)'. If it now moves back into the Kumo and breaks out above it... the Long term Bull will smile. 
Also see the action of Price on the M VWAP at the last candle.