CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 21 May to 25 May, 2012 - Post consolidation moves..

Learning from the Past Week:

The Nifty stayed above the Fib61x on the EOD, and the 34 EMA crossed bearishly below the 200 DMA.

Both the above were studied by us last week, in 'Looking Forward' (click)

We had also smelled 'consolidation' in the air - our senses were accurate in that too.

Where after the consolidation? Up or Down? 

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:   

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 25 May, 2012. 

Nifty EOM depicts the bearish 'Three Inside Down' and aftermath, in the last 4 candles (click)

The fourth candle shows us the real take for the Bears.

The S&P 500, also displayed the very same pattern (click), The Nifty is one candle ahead in the fall.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart: 

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 25 May, 2012.

Support on the 200 DMA is repeated last week.

After 4 red weeks we have a green week - Dawn?

The long tail of this week's candle, indicates Bull resilience.

Channel Median contains the close.

 Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action  (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 25 May, 2012.

The 34 EMA/200 DMA cross is shown in the first circle - also seen is the 50 EMA.

We shall replace the 200 DMA and 50 EMA with SMAs for simplicity, from next week.

With 200 SMA at 5072 and 50 SMA at 5154 on Friday last - Current Golden Cross can continue or we have a Death's cross, if these MAs close the 80 point gap, and cross each other.

The second circle shows the consolidation on the last 5 candles (1 week), above the Fib 61x.

The Bullish cross of the 5 EMA above the 13 SMA, can happen on Monday with a close above 4909.

The MACD histogram has finally peeked above the zero line as seen in the third circle.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOD - the Bulls can take the Index up to the 200 DMA before settlement.

Falling below the Fib 61x on EOD screen or the 200 DMA on EOW screen - resumes the down trend.

Neither of the above means, more consolidation.

Bulls are current favorites.

Weekend updates shall be up.

EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 22 May 2012 - Long Term Crosses and Deflections

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action  (or) EOD Chart:  

Nifty - End of Day - 22 May 2012    

In our weekend analysis (click) we saw support on the Fibonacci 61.8%, as seen on EOD chart above.

We also studied that, the deflection of the 34 EMA and 200 DMA would be a plus from long term perspective.

As seen in the first circle - the above MAs are touching at end of trade today (2 points away from crossing).

The more famous Golden Cross refers to the 50 EMA and 200 DMA cross - the 50 EMA in pink is also shown above. 

Meanwhile the Nifty is consolidating above the Fib61x - second circle.

The MACD looks like its bottoming out - third circle.

Nifty therefore has to take off above today's close - if the Bulls have to see bright, long term future.

If that does not happen - the 50 EMA & 200 DMA (Golden Cross) should deflect in the days to come (for the Bulls to let out a LONG sigh of relief).

We shall watch that space. 

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 09 April to 13 April, 2012 - Bears have the last word..

Recap: 

Our outlook, for the week gone by, on the S&P 500 was distinctly Bearish (click),

However, we choose to go with the Bulls for the Indian market (click).

Bulls kept up a stand off, while cat and mouse games ruled (click and click).

Right from under the Bull's Noses, Bears took the Index the global way, in the second half of Friday, leaving the Nifty blushing red.

What next?

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 13 April, 2012. 

The last two red candles are inside the green candle of Feb'2012, in the long term chart above.

The 5 EMA would cross above the 13 SMA if the Nifty touches 5394 this month.

Currently the Bearish Harami's (Feb/Mar candles) effect, is on.

Nifty closed above the 5 EMA, Bulls remain in control of the Long term screen.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 13 April, 2012.

Slipping just under the 34 EMA, Bulls have lost the advantage.

The medium term trend had bucked Global Bearishness, until the second half of Friday.

The Bulls would want to get back above the 34 EMA, while the bears would aim for our channel bottom (black).

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart with closing prices in a line graph (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 13 April, 2012.

The journey of the index, to below the green channel bottom, was after quite a fight, as the many touches tell.

The crossovers made by the 5 EMA and 13 SMA were too many in the end, but emphasized their utility.

The MACD stayed stubbornly, sub zero.

Inability of the Index, to get above the 34 EMA, all through the week was the key for Bears.

With the medium term and short term going Bear, Bulls would look at avoiding another Lower Low.

Looking Forward: 

One would watch global cues, as they seem to have a non-technical influence on the Index.

Above 34 EMA on the EOD, the Bulls can wrest back control.

The 200 DMA looks like the next stop once again.

The 34 EMA is above the 200 DMA...long term bullish.
Even if the Nifty loses a steady 50 points every session from here to month end, the 34 EMA would just about get even with the 200 DMA (Nifty would be at 4700 odd, by then :) .......).

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 19 March to 23 March, 2012 - Déjà vu ?

Recap: Last week (post here) we called a 'correction' and got it. While the quantum of the correction may not be something to Tom Tom about, the Bears would have woken up from their 5 week Slumber. Was our risky call really brave, or were we plain nuts? Lets study the charts updated with last week's data, to find out.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart - 23 March 2012  

S&P 500 - Month Chart (closing prices of each month in a line): The long term chart looks good, and in Bull mode. Currently nosing above last year's high, there is no major divergence of price line with the indicator below, as of now. Let's get closer to the action, as below.

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart - 23March 2012 

S&P 500 - Week Chart (each candle is 1 Week's price action): The white channel lines define the Week's channel that we follow, and the 'mode' is Bull here also. This medium term chart give us feeling of  'Déjà vu'. Notice the candle sets, that the three arrows point to. All Bearish Haramis and the first two were bought into, by the Bulls. We are discussing the fate of  the third set. One should have a re-look at how to trade this pattern (we studied it here last). 

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart - 23 March  2012  

S&P 500 - Day (EOD) Chart (each candle is 1 Day's price action): The short term charts as above, have a change in orientation of the yellow 'Day Channel lines' due to last week's price action. This chart unlike the two above are in 'neutral mode'. Price touched the middle of the Week Channel (white) and Corrected to close below the 5 EMA.

Looking Forward: Short term indicator's pointing down, does not make it a 'Correction' of substantial nature.  However before writing off our Bear Call of last weekend, as mere pause, we should look at the three arrows on the Week Chart above. Will the Bulls say 'Déjà vu' or do the Bears get third time 'Lucky' ?

EOD Analysis CNX Nifty - 14 March 2012 - At the Wall..

Nifty - End of Day - 14 March  2012 

We concluded our study last weekend (see last two sections of study here) with the note that Bulls would smile above 5343 for Monday - with the Index closing at 5360, bulls were happy to do so. They continued to do this, all the way to the wall (5484) which has stopped the Bulls (EOD today - 5464) ahead of crucial Fundamental inputs (union Budget). The 5 EMA is above the 13 SMA too.

Meanwhile in our Ichimoku Study (here) as we wished in point 'F', the candle has indeed moved into the Kumo...we shall visit it, this weekend.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen Analysis - Week: 05 March to 09 March 2012 - Poised !

Recap: The Nifty drifted below the 34 EMA on the EOD last week (post here)- bounced off the 200 DMA (post here) and is just in the Neutral zone as of  last weekend. The EOW chart also shows a precise take off from the 34 EMA on the weekly charts. Overall our note that the 34 EMA and 200 DMA zone, would hold the bears, rang true.

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 09 M arch 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Month Chart (each candle is 1 month): Taking support on the 5 EMA the index has closed above the 13 SMA. We now zoom into the area marked with a blue square for a closer look..below.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 09 March  2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Week Chart (each candle is 1 week): With a clinical take off from the 34 EMA (see blue oval) the Index almost formed a Doji this week. Bulls would have been confident going into Budget week if the close were above the 5 EMA. The STS shows the action of the resistance line. We now magnify the portion in the Blue square with the chart below.

Nifty - End of Day - 09 March  2012

CNX Nifty 50 - EOD Chart (line chart of close prices):  The closing price disguises the action on Wednesday where the Nifty bounced off the 200 DMA like a vetran! The 5 EMA and the 35 EMA form a touch and go (Bullish) as of now. Bullish cross of the 5 EMA above the 13 EMA should be the precursor for the next Bull move. Bulls Smile above 5343 for Monday and Laugh above 5484 (Wall) for the month. 

Looking Forward: World markets (US, Europe) are largely back in the green. India as seen in the previous study is not is the best of places after the recent fall.  With the anticipated volatility, our range on the EOD chart should give some good trading moves. Trending times are below the 200 DMA or above the Wall.

The Dow 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 05 March to 09 March 2012 - Bulls have it all.

Preamble:

We shall do a Ichimoku study to complement our 'Triple Screen Technical Analysis' of the US markets -  Taking the 'weekly' time frame may be experimental but lets look at the facts..

The standard settings for an Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart are 9,26,52 and are used on EOD charts.  When Ichimoku was created back in the 1930s, a trading week was 6 days long. So we have one and a half week, one month, and two months. Now that the trading week is 5 days, we can use 7, 22, and 44 instead.

However, sticking to the standard settings (as the majority still use them) one notices that there is a case for 'End of Week' Charts where each candle is one week's data. There are 52 weeks in a year, 26 weeks form two quarters and 9 weeks equal about 2 months. We have a longer term view - lets check if that works out in the days to come.

One needs to read up on Ichimoku (see our first post here to start off) and use the link below, as I use the same color code. There are many more studies out there, feel free and get a good one.

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 09 March 2012

The Dow Jones Industrial Average 30 - Ichimoku - End of Week Study.

A: See the green 'a' and 'A' and the green line. 'a' is the 'Senkou Span Cross'. If the senkou span A (black line) crosses the senkou span B (grey line) from the bottom up, then it is a bullish signal. 26 weeks before the cross - 'A' at the green line shows the relevant candle - as you would have read by now - A neutral senkou span cross signal takes place when the price curve is inside the kumo at the time of the senkou span cross. We have a Neutral Bullish Cross.

B: See the orange 'b' and 'B' and orange line. 'b' is the 'Chikou Span Cross'. If the chikou span (purple line) crosses through the price curve from the bottom up, then it is a bullish signal. A strong chikou span cross Buy signal takes place when a bullish cross takes place and current price is above the kumo. See 'B' and candle at orange line - as the candle is above the 'kumo' we have a Strong Bullish signal.  

C: 'C' is a 'Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross'. A neutral tenkan sen (red line)/kijun sen (blue line) cross Buy signal takes place when a bullish cross happens within the kumo as seen.

D: 'D' is the 'Kumo Breakout'. The signal to go long in Kumo (grey cloud) breakout trading is when price closes above the prevailing kumo - as seen.

Bulls would enjoy the above.

E: The last input - we see that the price took support on the 'Tenkan sen(red line)'. One notes that price breaching the tenkan sen can give an early indication of a trend change .. maybe the Bear will get lucky some time soon.

CNX Nifty - Triple Screen Analysis - Week: 27 Feb to 02 Mar '2012 - Consolidation Times Continue..

Recap: After some serious long unwinding early in the week (see post) - the Bears kept the index below the Fib 76x (EOD chart) and in consolidation mode.  The price stayed above the 34 EMA and below the 5 EMA as marked last weekend on EOD. Currently the Bulls are attempting a comeback using the 13 SMA on the EOM as the base. A look at the March candle's 'low' on the Ichimoku Study of last weekend (post here) would lend credence to this point. 

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 02 M arch 2012

Nifty - End of Month Chart (EOM): One hoped for the 5 EMA cross above the 13 SMA to happen as the March candle appeared. This was not to be. Ringing in the long term Bull times is kept for another day then. The Bulls would like to continue the up move from where they are and the Bears would like to keep it below 5484 - the Wall for this month..

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 24 Feb  2012

Nifty - End of Week Chart (EOW): The resistance line on the STS indicator shown last week, is not yet breached. Bulls have kept well above our 13 month resistance line (black) and 34 EMA.  

Nifty - End of Day - 2 March  2012

Nifty - End of Day Chart (EOD): The Bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA defined the action last week. Bulls seek to get above the 5 EMA, Blue line and the Fib76x to regain some momentum. Notice that our harbinger of  long term Bullishness - the 34 EMA over 200 DMA cross is still good.

Looking Forward: Bulls look to make a beeline for the Wall - 5484 and crack it. The time for that action may depend on how much more bear pressure the 34 EMA over 200 DMA cross can take, while  still intact. Last week's lows have some solid pedigree. Consolidation should continue until our range on the EOD gives up on either side.

CNX Nifty 'End of Week' Technical Analysis: After week 13-17 Feb, 2012

Recap: Last week one saw the Fall of the Fibonacci 76.4% marked on the EOD charts (post here). We noted that our channel drawn a month ago - was exactly followed by the Price (post here) and in the same post, we also observed that some crossovers indicate the Bull Market's return, then we studied moving average crossovers - both for and against.

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 17 Feb  2012 - each candle is ONE MONTH

Nifty - End of Month Chart (EOM): Around mid December we had observed (post here) that a pullback to the Green line was possible (highlighted with a blue oval above) - at that Bearish time it looked a remote possibility - today that line looks tantalizingly close. This month's candle can touch the green line at approx 5747 and next month's candle approx 5838. Now, we shall zoom in for a closer look at the area marked in the blue rectangle - with the EOW chart below.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 17 Feb  2012 - each candle is ONE WEEK

Nifty - End of Week Chart (EOW): Last week's candle has exactly touched our channel top (highlighted with a blue  oval above). Cracking last week's high should give us our new channel (shown in black) and the targets discussed in the EOM above. A consolidation around the channel top is healthy for the up move. We now study the area marked inside the blue rectangle with the EOD charts below.

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 17 Feb 2012 - DAILY close price in a line

Nifty - End of Day Chart (EOD): We are near channel top here also as observed earlier (post here).  The next leg of the up move or consolidation should be watched in sync with EOW and EOM notes above. Bulls remain strong above 5454. Throw back should be held by the Fib 76x line.

Looking forward: Channel tops, both on EOD and EOW, smell of consolidation. Bulls however have enough momentum to take the climb into a steeper channel up. Fundamental reasons (Budget and PIGS) may queer the pitch. Battle lines between Bears and Bulls are drawn for now, at the channel lines as studied above.

CNX Nifty Technical Analysis: Week ending 10 Feb 2012

Recap: We defined the Fib 76x (Fibonacci retracement 76.4% drawn on the EOD chart) as the resistance for the week (for post click here). We observed the Price hit this mark, and fall back, early last week (for post click here). We then observed the close above 5400, which however fell short of the Fib76x, and took a call that the range was intact (for post click here). Nifty closed below the 5400 and within our range marked on the EOD by weekend.

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 10 Feb  2012

Nifty End of Month Chart (EOM): Month candle continues to stand strong on the 5 EMA. Bullish cross of the 5 EMA above the 13 SMA would imply long term strength in the index. We analyze the highlighted area with the EOW charts next....

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 10 Feb  2012

Nifty End of Week Chart (EOW): The candle, last week's Price action gave us, was a Doji. The position implies a possible 'Bearish Doji Star', which is only a moderate indicator of trend change. We should look out for a 'Evening Doji Star' a stronger pattern which implies that the Bears really mean business. The primary condition for above happening is that price all through next week stay below the Doji's body (approx. 5379). ...  Study link below..

http://thepatternsite.com/EveningDojiStar.html

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 10 Feb 2012

Nifty End of Day Chart (EOD): The Price refused to cross the Fib76x on closing basis last week. So our range remains same and as shown. Bulls remain strong above the 200 DMA and would look at reaching the red top line. Watch the Fib76x to 5 EMA zone.

Looking Forward: The possibility of a 'Evening Doji Star' on the EOW chart, the strength that the Bulls displayed above the 200 DMA, the Doji of last week and our EOW analysis of the SP500 (post, below this one) - together give us a sense that if the Bears defend Fib76x, they can take the Price all the way to the lower end of our range on the EOD i.e 200DMA. Bulls however are still in the driver's seat if they close the index above the Fib76x.