CNX Nifty Technical Analysis: Week ending 10 Feb 2012

Recap: We defined the Fib 76x (Fibonacci retracement 76.4% drawn on the EOD chart) as the resistance for the week (for post click here). We observed the Price hit this mark, and fall back, early last week (for post click here). We then observed the close above 5400, which however fell short of the Fib76x, and took a call that the range was intact (for post click here). Nifty closed below the 5400 and within our range marked on the EOD by weekend.

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 10 Feb  2012

Nifty End of Month Chart (EOM): Month candle continues to stand strong on the 5 EMA. Bullish cross of the 5 EMA above the 13 SMA would imply long term strength in the index. We analyze the highlighted area with the EOW charts next....

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 10 Feb  2012

Nifty End of Week Chart (EOW): The candle, last week's Price action gave us, was a Doji. The position implies a possible 'Bearish Doji Star', which is only a moderate indicator of trend change. We should look out for a 'Evening Doji Star' a stronger pattern which implies that the Bears really mean business. The primary condition for above happening is that price all through next week stay below the Doji's body (approx. 5379). ...  Study link below..

http://thepatternsite.com/EveningDojiStar.html

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 10 Feb 2012

Nifty End of Day Chart (EOD): The Price refused to cross the Fib76x on closing basis last week. So our range remains same and as shown. Bulls remain strong above the 200 DMA and would look at reaching the red top line. Watch the Fib76x to 5 EMA zone.

Looking Forward: The possibility of a 'Evening Doji Star' on the EOW chart, the strength that the Bulls displayed above the 200 DMA, the Doji of last week and our EOW analysis of the SP500 (post, below this one) - together give us a sense that if the Bears defend Fib76x, they can take the Price all the way to the lower end of our range on the EOD i.e 200DMA. Bulls however are still in the driver's seat if they close the index above the Fib76x.

S&P 500 - End of Week Analysis - Déjà vu ?

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - End of Week  Jan' 23-27, 2012

Last week (post here) we saw the Price pull back and break into the Monthly channel's bottom line(red) - shown encircled above. 

This week's candle is a Doji. The combination of the last two candles remind one of a Bearish Doji Star (studied on the Nifty here), the channel in white is the one the S&P 500 follows now. Earlier channel is in blue. 

The Month's targets remain relevant. Intra-month movement by the price into the red Channel is same as in Nov'11.

CNX Nifty Technical Analysis: Week ending 20 Jan 2012.

Recap: We identified the point where Nifty would break out from (post here) and a candle stick pattern to go with it (post here). Post break out we redefined the channels Nifty would follow (post here) and ended the week with the Price exactly at the new channel's middle blue line (post here).  

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 20  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Month Chart: The bulls conquered the 5 EMA on the month chart. This chart is back to bull mode. Pull back to the green line looks possible from here. Zooming in we analyze the area encircled in blue next - with the 'End of Week' chart.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 20 Jan 2012

Nifty End of Week Chart: Our point last week (post here)on the indicator popping above the 20 mark was made. The Bulls went on a rampage all the way to the 34 EMA where they saw resistance exactly as marked. Bears look like they will not give up this zone without a fight. We now zoom in on the area encircled in red with the 'End of Day' Charts.

Nifty - End of Day Chart A - 20  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Day Chart A:  The revised channels presented intra week (post here) worked out for the Bulls - the mid point was reached with precision as was the range exactly as marked. 

Nifty - End of Day Chart B - 20  Jan  2012

Nifty End of Day Chart B:  A second channel possibility is presented - for both options one looks at a controlled throw back to the old channel top (black line) or Fib61x as the next event to be watched. The candle stick chart of the above has a point of note as we saw yesterday (post here).

Looking Forward: Bulls are in a strong place now. Its natural then that resistances in different time frames, as we saw above, should develop. Bulls now needs to break the upper end of the range shown on the EOD charts above to keep their momentum. Early sign would be trading above last week's close and negating the Bearish Doji Star. Failure gives Bears a toe hold into the week and post settlement (for the Jan'12 series), a chance to strike back. Intra Week updates shall be up.

Bearish Doji Star

Nifty - End of Day Chart - 20  Jan  2012 - Candles

The last time we paid attention to Candlesticks it paid off good (post here). So here is the next possibility. Suggested reading material below..

http://www.candlestickanalysis.com/bearish-doji-star-candlestick-pattern