S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 12 August to 16 August: 2013 - Bears take the Short Term

S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 16 Aug'13

S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 16 Aug'13

S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 16 Aug'13

Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

• The Bearish Harami which formed last weeks moves on to become the 'Three Inside Down' that we studied  on the weekly charts #W1.

Support & Resistance:

• Index continues to have the Day channel Top, Week Channel Top and Month Channel Top as resistances on the upside #M1, #W1 & #D1.
• The White Month Channel Top Line sends back the Bulls for the current dip #D1 or #W1.

Moving Averages:  

• Bulls just about defend the 13 SMA - Index Closes the week at the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
• 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross bearishly on the EOD charts #D1.
• 34 MVWAP gives way to the Bear attack on the Day charts #D1. 

Indicators:

• RSI 13 goes below the 50 mark after Divergence to Price became apparent #W2.
• Stochastic 34 3 4 (now on EOD) dips below oversold  #D2.
• Oscillator (now on EOM) dips below oversold - see earlier dips too #M2.

Bears take the Short Term Screen.

Looking forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

• On the Medium Term Chart the Three Inside Down we studied last week is still on #W1. (Study Links here, here or anywhere else.)

Support & Resistance:

• New All Time High and all the Channel Tops Red, Blue and White #D1, are the next resistances for the Bulls.The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support. 
• We also have the 34 MVWAP on the Day Chart #D1 and 34 MVWAP on the Week Chart #W1 as closer Resistance and Support respectively. 

Moving Averages:

• Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
• 5 EMA & 13 SMA  on the Medium Term Charts #W1 -  poised to cross Bearishly - to be watched.
• Getting below the 13 SMA on the Week Charts - EOW #W1 important for Bears.

Indicators:

• Oscillator #M2 keeping below oversold favors the Bears - notice that its repeating what it did in previous attempts.
• RSI sliding below its MA and the negative divergence to Price works for the Bears #W1

Bears look to the 'Three Inside Down' #W1 giving more gains, Bulls look for life above the 34 MVWAP on the EOD #D1.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 12 August to 16 August: 2013 - Death Cross Watch 3

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 16 Aug'13

Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 16 Aug'13

Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Apr' 2013, onward - as on 16 Aug'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

• On the Medium Term EOW #3, the 'High Wave' Candle studied few weeks ago, gives the Bears even more honey.
• June's 'Hanging Man' Candle & May's Shooting Star on the Long Term EOM #1 Charts - gave Bears support from July End..

Support & Resistance:

• The 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' fails again last week  #5.
• Index bounces off our Day Channel's bottom #5 exactly once more. 
• 5655 cleared by the Bulls until Friday last - retaken by Bears emphatically.

Moving Averages:

• 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bearishly in a Death Cross #5. 
• Index again takes support on the stable 34 EMA, on the Long Term Chart  #5.

Indicators:

• 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 on the long term charts show Bulls slipping below the center line.
• MACD Histogram ticks up,  MACD and its MA look at meeting up #6.
• STS #4 dives into the oversold after 18 odd months.

Bears ride the 'High Wave' #3 to a Death Cross #5 and stay strong...

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

• Combined effect of June's 'Hanging Man' Candle & May's Shooting Star on the EOM #1 help Bears get a fourth red week. 
• 'High Wave' Candle Pattern #3, studied 4 weeks ago still in play.

Support & Resistance:

• The 200 SMA #5 is now resistance - for the Bulls.
• The 50% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' is the next available support for the Bulls #5.

Moving Averages:

• 200 SMA and 50 SMA on the Day Charts remaining Bearishly Crossed #5 keeps the Bulls under pressure, as seen on Friday last.. 
• 13 SMA and 5 EMA on the Long Term #1 are currently Bearishly Crossed (Index below 5655) it can Bullishly Deflect if Index gets above 5655 for August.  
• 13 SMA and 5 EMA on the Short Term #5 Bearishly Deflected last Week - a Bullish Cross would be just the impetus for the Bulls to get back some ground.

Indicators:

• 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 could see the Index bounce of its center line for a new Bull run if the Bulls get to stay above it from August.

Bulls want life above 5655 and a Golden Cross -  Bears again wish to crack the 34 EMA #1 and the EOD Channel bottom #5.