Showing posts with label MVWAP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MVWAP. Show all posts

Sunday, September 22, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - New High :- Week: 16 September to 20 September: 2013.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 20 Sept'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 20 Sept'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from July'2013, onward - as on 20 Sept'13





Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • 'Three  Inside Up' studied last week gives the Bulls a new High #W1.
  • 'Opening White Marubozus' also mentioned last week - help the up-move #W1.
  • Bearish 'Head &Shoulder' Pattern fails to materialize early in the week #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • The New 'All time High' and the new Day Channel Top (Pink) were resistances #D1. 
  • The short Term 5 EMA was support for the Bulls last week  #D1.
Moving Averages:  
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA stay crossed Bullishly on the EOD charts #D1.
  • On the EOW - 5 EMA and 13 SMA stay Bullishly deflected #W1. 
  • Index keeps above the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 touches overbought #W2.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 also in over bought zone  #D2.
  • Month Chart Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.

Wrap:
Bears lose their way, Bulls ride to a new High.. 


Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
  • On the Medium Term Chart the 'Three  Inside Up' which we studied using links from herehere or elsewhere, is still active.
  • The last candle on the EOM and EOW Charts are bullish 'Opening White Marubozus' and they are worth a study herehere or anywhere
Support & Resistance:
  • 13 SMA on the Short Term Chart is the nearest Support for the Bulls, while the new 'All Time High' #D1 is resistance.
  • Beyond these the 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support and the Month Channel Top (blue) is the resistance seen, #M1.
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • Staying above the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1 important for Bulls.
Indicators:
  • Oscillator #M2 keeping below oversold favors the Bears.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 remaining in the over bought zone, works for the Bulls #W1

Wrap:
Bulls see the 'Marubozus' and the 'Three Inside Up' #W1, continuing the up-move - Bears want life below the 5 EMA on the EOD to start with #D1.




Sunday, September 15, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls go up to a H&S :- Week: 09 September to 13 September: 2013.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 13 Sept'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 13 Sept'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from July'2013, onward - as on 13 Sept'13




Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Bullish Harami on the Medium Term Chart, develops into a 'Three  Inside Up' as studied last week #W1.
  • Last Two Weekly candles were 'Opening White Marubozus' and the current form of the Monthly Candle is a Bullish Marubozu.
  • Last Week's candle lines up to form the right shoulder of a Bearish 'Head &Shoulder' Pattern #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index closes above the 13 SMA on the Week Channel #W1 which was resistance for Bulls last week.
  • The Long Term 5 EMA remains support for the Bulls on the way down  #M1.
  • Index butting into the Day Channel Top which is resistance #D1.
Moving Averages:  
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA stay crossed Bullishly on the EOD charts #D1.
  • On the EOW - 5 EMA and 13 SMA touch and deflect Bullishly #W1. 
  • Index keeps above the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 surges above the 50 mark - RSI crosses above the MA #W2.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 heading for the over-bought zone  #D2.
  • Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.

Wrap:
Bulls get the Short Term Screen too - Bears fight to keep the Day Channel from cracking #D1. 



Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
  • On the Medium Term Chart the 'Three  Inside Up' was studied using links from herehere or elsewhere.
  • The Last two candles on the Weekly Charts are bullish 'Opening White Marubozus' and they are worth a study here, here or anywhere
  • Bearish 'Head and Shoulder' Chart Pattern (study here, here or happy hunting) would worry the Bulls #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • 34 MVWAP on the Short Term Chart is the nearest Support for the Bulls, while the Channel Top #D1 is resistance.
  • Beyond these the 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support and the Last All Time High is the resistance seen, #M1.
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • Staying above the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1 important for Bulls.
Indicators:
  • Oscillator #M2 keeping below oversold favors the Bears.
  • RSI staying above its MA will work for the Bulls #W1

Wrap:
Bulls see the 'Marubozus' and the 'Three Inside Up' #W1, continuing the up-move - Bears would love a H&S #W1.



Monday, September 9, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls look inside to go up :- Week: 03 September to 06 September: 2013.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 06 Sept'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 06 Sept'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from July'2013, onward - as on 06 Sept'13




Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Bullish Harami forms on the Medium Term Charts #W1.
  • The 'Three Inside Down' that we studied  on the weekly charts gave the Bears 4% downside honey #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index closes at the 13 SMA on the Week Channel #W1 which was resistance for Bulls on the upside.
  • The Long Term 5 EMA was support for the Bulls on the way down  #M1.
Moving Averages:  
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross Bullishly on the EOD charts #D1.
  • On the EOW - 5 EMA and 13 SMA touch #W1. 
  • Index keeps above the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 peeks above the 50 mark - MA hugging the RSI #W2.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 bounces from the over-sold  #D2.
  • Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.


Bulls bring the Short Term Screen to No Man's Land - Bears fight to keep the 13 SMA #W1. 



Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
Support & Resistance:
  • 34 MVWAP on the Short Term Chart is the next resistance for the Bulls, while the 5  EMA #M1 is the Support..
  • Beyond these the 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support and the Last All Time High is the resistance seen, #M1.
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • 5 EMA & 13 SMA  on the Medium Term Charts #W1 -  poised to deflect Bullishly or cross Bearishly by EOW - to be watched.
  • Closing above the 13 SMA on the Week Charts - EOW #W1 important for Bulls.
Indicators:
  • Oscillator #M2 keeping below oversold favors the Bears.
  • RSI emphatically crossing above its MA will work for the Bulls #W1



Bulls hope for a 'Three Inside Up' #W1, Bears wish for a Cross of the 5EMA and 13 SMA #W1.




Sunday, September 1, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 26 August to 30 August: 2013 - Bears Hold Down



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 30 Aug'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 30 Aug'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from July'2013, onward - as on 30 Aug'13



Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • The 'Three Inside Down' that we studied  on the weekly charts takes Index lower - Bears get a Red Week #W1 and Month #M1..
Support & Resistance:
  • Index had the 13 SMA on the Week Channel #W1 as resistance for Bulls on the upside.
  • The 5 EMA was support for the Bulls on the way down  #M1.
Moving Averages:  
  • Index Closes the week below the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA remain crossed bearishly on the EOD charts #D1.
  • On the EOW - 5 EMA and 13 SMA look poised for a bearish cross #W1. 
  • Index keeps above the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 peeks above the 50 mark - MA yet to cross the RSI #W2.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 reaches the over-sold  #D2.
  • Oscillator dips below the over-bought, for the Month Close #M2.


Bears retain control of the Short Term Screen. Nudging towards control of the Medium Term too..




Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
Support & Resistance:
  • 13 SMA on the Medium Term Chart is the next resistance for the Bulls, while the 34 MVWAP, #W1 is the Support..
  • Beyond these the 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support and the Last All Time High is the resistance seen #M1.
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • 5 EMA & 13 SMA  on the Medium Term Charts #W1 -  poised to cross Bearishly - to be watched.
  • Staying below the 13 SMA on the Week Charts - EOW #W1 important for Bears.
Indicators:
  • Oscillator #M2 keeping below oversold favors the Bears.
  • RSI crossing above its MA will work for the Bulls #W1



Bears look to the 'Three Inside Down' #W1 giving more gains, Bulls look to get above the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.




Monday, August 26, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 19 August to 23 August: 2013 - Bears Channel Down



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 23 Aug'13


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 23 Aug'13


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from July 2013, onward - as on 23 Aug'13




Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • The 'Three Inside Down' that we studied  on the weekly charts takes Index lower - Bulls however bounce back to close in the Green #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index continues to have the Day channel Top, Week Channel Top and Month Channel Top as resistances on the upside #M1, #W1 & #D1.
  • The White Month Channel Top Line sends back the Bulls for the current dip  #W1.
  • We have a new Day Channel to study from this week #D1.
Moving Averages:  
  • Bulls again defend the 13 SMA - Index Closes the week above the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA remain crossed bearishly on the EOD charts #D1.
  • On the EOW - 5 EMA and 13 SMA remain crossed bullishly but poised for a bearish cross #W1. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 peeks above the 50 mark - MA looks like crossing above the RSI bullishly #W2.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 (now on EOD) heads for the over bought  #D2.
  • Oscillator (now on EOM) dips below oversold - see earlier dips too #M2.


Bears keep the Short Term Screen.




Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
Support & Resistance:
  • New All Time High and all the Channel Tops Red, Blue and White #D1, are the next resistances for the Bulls.The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support. 
  • We continue to have the 34 MVWAP on the Day Chart #D1 and 34 MVWAP on the Week Chart #W1 as closer Resistance and Support respectively. 
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • 5 EMA & 13 SMA  on the Medium Term Charts #W1 -  poised to cross Bearishly - to be watched.
  • Getting below the 13 SMA on the Week Charts - EOW #W1 important for Bears.
Indicators:
  • Oscillator #M2 keeping below oversold favors the Bears.
  • RSI crossing above its MA will work for the Bulls #W1



Bears look to the 'Three Inside Down' #W1 giving more gains, Bulls look to get moving above the 34 MVWAP on the EOW #W1.




Sunday, August 18, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 12 August to 16 August: 2013 - Bears take the Short Term



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 16 Aug'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 16 Aug'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 16 Aug'13




Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
Support & Resistance:
  • Index continues to have the Day channel Top, Week Channel Top and Month Channel Top as resistances on the upside #M1, #W1 & #D1.
  • The White Month Channel Top Line sends back the Bulls for the current dip #D1 or #W1.
Moving Averages:  
  • Bulls just about defend the 13 SMA - Index Closes the week at the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross bearishly on the EOD charts #D1.
  • 34 MVWAP gives way to the Bear attack on the Day charts #D1. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 goes below the 50 mark after Divergence to Price became apparent #W2.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 (now on EOD) dips below oversold  #D2.
  • Oscillator (now on EOM) dips below oversold - see earlier dips too #M2.


Bears take the Short Term Screen.




Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
  • On the Medium Term Chart the Three Inside Down we studied last week is still on #W1. (Study Links herehere or anywhere else.)
Support & Resistance:
  • New All Time High and all the Channel Tops Red, Blue and White #D1, are the next resistances for the Bulls.The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support. 
  • We also have the 34 MVWAP on the Day Chart #D1 and 34 MVWAP on the Week Chart #W1 as closer Resistance and Support respectively. 
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • 5 EMA & 13 SMA  on the Medium Term Charts #W1 -  poised to cross Bearishly - to be watched.
  • Getting below the 13 SMA on the Week Charts - EOW #W1 important for Bears.
Indicators:
  • Oscillator #M2 keeping below oversold favors the Bears - notice that its repeating what it did in previous attempts.
  • RSI sliding below its MA and the negative divergence to Price works for the Bears #W1



Bears look to the 'Three Inside Down' #W1 giving more gains, Bulls look for life above the 34 MVWAP on the EOD #D1.





Sunday, August 11, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 05 August to 09 August: 2013 - Bear Attack



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 09 Aug'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 09 Aug'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 09 Aug'13



Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
Support & Resistance:
  • Index has the Day channel Top, Week Channel Top and Month Channel Top as resistances on the upside #M1,#W1 & #D1.
  • Month Channel Top near resistance last week #D1.
Moving Averages:  
  • Bulls keep above the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1.
  • Index slips below the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD charts - by end of the week #D1.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Day charts #D1 meet. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 stays below oversold & Divergence to Price is apparent #W2.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 (now on EOD) stays oversold  #D2.
  • Oscillator (now on EOM) dips below oversold - see earlier dips too #M2.


Bears Fight back.




Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
  • The Bearish Harami seen in the Medium Term Chart - next week's candle candle closing lower makes it a Three Inside Down #W1. Study Links here, here or anywhere else.
Support & Resistance:
  • New All Time High and all the Channel Tops Red, Blue and White #D1, are the next resistances for the Bulls.
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support.
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • 5 EMA & 13 SMA  on the Short Term Charts #D1 -  poised to cross Bearishly - to be watched.
  • Getting below the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1 important for Bears.
Indicators:
  • Oscillator #M2 keeping above oversold favors the Bulls - notice that its dipping down like in earlier attempts
  • RSI sliding below its MA and the negative divergence to Price works for the Bears #W1



Bears look to a 'Three Inside Down' on the Medium Term #W1, Bulls call for a new High and more #M1.