Trade, Live and Thrive: 10/06/12

Saturday, October 6, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 01 October to 05 October, 2012 - Bulls stretch to move up again.

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move) (or) EOM Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - 05 October, 2012.

Above is the Month Chart - EOM - analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - 05 October, 2012.

Above is the Week Chart - EOW - analyzing Data from Q2-Q3 2012, onward.

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move) (or) EOD Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - 05 October, 2012.

Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from Sept 2012, onward.

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bears failed to keep it below the 5 EMA on the Medium and Short Term Screens (4,6).
Bulls took off from their support, that we identified at the MVWAP 34, on the EOD (6).

Follow up action on the 'Three Inside Down' (4), was in favor of the Bulls.

Oversold state (2,5), did favor the Bulls as discussed.
The 5 EMA crosses above the 13 SMA on the EOD (6) - to complete a Bull week.
Bulls made a renewed attempt at the red Month Channel top (1) and the break point of 1503 for this month.

Looking forward into the next Week:

Taking it it below the 5 EMA on the EOD and EOW - is the first task of the Bears.
The Channel Top (1) Break number is 1503, after which next peak for the Bull to conquer is 1577, which is the high of Oct' 2007.
Support (3) is at 1363 which is the 23.6% retrace (Fibonacci) from the Oct'07 high to the Mar'09 Low, as shown on the Long Term Chart above.

RSI remaining below the MA (5) gives the Bears hope.
Month Channel top (1) i.e 1503, is where the Bears have their backs against the wall.

After 4 weekly candles(4) showing consolidation - and Bears holding the last top - Bulls need to breakout from here, else lose their advantage to the Bear Camp.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 01 October to 05 October, 2012 - Channel top action

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 05 October, 2012.

Above is the Month Chart - EOM - analyzing Data from 2008 onward.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 05 October, 2012.

Above is the Week Chart - EOW - analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward.

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 05 October, 2012.

Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from May 2012, onward.

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls breakout of the EOD channel (5) - only to slip back inside, on a crazy Friday(last).
Divergence at the MACD (6) persists, the MACD and its Signal Line are yet to cross.
The short fuse indicator (2) turns down, indicating the effect of this month's candle, to-date.
STS in oversold (4) indicates Bull power.

Bulls remain strong, and above the 5 EMA, on all three screens.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bulls are in a good place.
Bulls look at taking out the EOW channel top (3) after clearing the EOD Channel top (5).
A massive Pullback to the Monthly Channel's Green bottom line (1) - is the Bull agenda.

Remaining above the 5 EMA on all the three screens next week, would be essential for above.

Gap between the 50 SMA and 200 SMA on the EOD, continued to widen steadily, after we 'Welcomed Back' the Golden Cross, 10 weeks ago.

Divergence at the MACD (6) holds promise for the Bears, watch out if the Signal line crosses the MACD during the week.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 01 October to 05 October, 2012 - Bulls get going

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as marked on chart below:

Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)

The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

The Kijun sen cross: Strong Bullish Signal (K)

Tenkan Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (Te)

The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (T)

DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 05 October, 2012.

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Chikou Span - moves away form the price line (a).

The Oscillator ticks up, -ve divergence is persistent (c).
Support for index (b) is near the Tenkan Sen (red line)

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Staying above the MVWAP 34, the Index sights the 2007 highs next.

The Bull action of last week - sends the faster Tenkan Sen (b) soaring up - supporting the Price line now.
The last 4 candles show consolidation - a break should be in the air - one watches the action near the Tenkan Sen for the week.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 01 October to 05 October, 2012 - Bulls inch ahead

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as shown on chart below:

The Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bullish Signal (Te)

The Senoku Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (Ss)

The Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (K)

The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (T)

The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)
The Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (Cc)

BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 05 October, 2012.

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

The Chikou Span rears up again (a).

The last Chikou Span Cross (cC) was the inflection point for the current Bull run.
The Senoku span Cross (Ss) started the bulls moving from the Kumo.

Looking forward into the next Week:

Bears look to reaching the Tenkan Sen to start making an impact.

Staying above the Kumo - advantage is with the Bulls.

The Thinning Kumo (for next two candles) is an advantage for the Bears.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.