Saturday, October 6, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 01 October to 05 October, 2012 - Bulls stretch to move up again.

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move)  (or) EOM Chart: 
S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 05 October, 2012.
Above is the Month Chart - EOM - analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 05 October, 2012.
Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from Q2-Q3 2012, onward.

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move)  (or) EOD Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  05 October, 2012.
Above is the Day Chart - EOD -  analyzing Data from Sept 2012, onward.

Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)
Bears failed to keep it below the 5 EMA on the Medium and Short Term Screens (4,6).
Bulls took off from their support, that we identified at the MVWAP 34, on the EOD (6).
Follow up action on the 'Three Inside Down' (4), was in favor of the Bulls.
Oversold state (2,5), did favor the Bulls as discussed.
The 5 EMA crosses above the 13 SMA on the EOD (6) - to complete a Bull week.
Bulls made a renewed attempt at the red Month Channel top (1) and the break point of 1503 for this month.  

Looking forward into the next Week:
Taking it it below the 5 EMA on the EOD and EOW - is the first task of the Bears.
The Channel Top (1) Break number is 1503, after which next peak for the Bull to conquer is 1577, which is the high of Oct' 2007.
Support (3) is at 1363 which is the 23.6% retrace (Fibonacci) from the Oct'07 high to the Mar'09 Low, as shown on the Long Term Chart above. 
RSI remaining below the MA (5) gives the Bears hope.
Month Channel top (1) i.e 1503, is where the Bears have their backs against the wall.
After 4 weekly candles(4) showing consolidation - and Bears holding the last top - Bulls need to breakout from here, else lose their advantage to the Bear Camp.