Trade, Live and Thrive: 03/31/13

Sunday, March 31, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 22 March to 28 March, 2013 - Knocking at the All Time High

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 28 March'13

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from OND, 2011 onward - as on 28 March'13

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 28 March'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls pull off a Green Candle to deny the Bears a 'Three Inside Down' #W1
March candle closes above the (earlier) Month Channel - new Month channel shown now... #M1, #W1& #D1.
Bulls come close to the all time High last week - 1576 - Bears defend this next resistance #M1.
Earlier in the week - 5 EMA and 13 SMA that we were watching - choose to deflect and give the Bulls some green #D1.
Triple top on Long Term Charts - keeps the Bear hopes high.

Bulls keep index above the 5 EMA on all three screens.

RSI #W2, and its MA re-crossed bullishly.

Bulls control all three screens and the Bears defend the 'All Time High' Line.

The Ellipses marked #M1, #W1 and #D1 indicate the hot spots on the long, medium and short term charts respectively.

As one can see - we are zooming into the action starting #M1 through #W1 and get up close in #D1.

Looking forward into the next Week:

Day channel's, bottom green line #D1, is the support for the Bulls.

Bulls aim for the all time high of the SP500 (1576) - resistance #W1 or #M1.

Price, below the 5 EMA on the EOW #3, is the point where the bears see strength.

Triple Top on the Long Term Screen, remains the bane of the Bulls for some more time

5 EMA and 13 SMA on day charts #D1, crossing near the 'All Time High' would be good for Bears.

Divergence on the MACD Histogram - #D2 - yet to produce results for Bears.

With the price hovering close to the 'All Time High', focus is on that resistance and the Bull's ability to crack it.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 22 March to 28 March, 2013 - Three Outside Down !

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 28 March'13

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 28 March'13

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Nov' 2012, onward - as on 28 March'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

We saw the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high #1, as support last week - we also saw the Feb'13 close of 5693 as the resistance.
Price initially went below support and then tried to take out the resistance 5693 on the last day of the week & month - failing with a day high of 5692 - #1, #5.
Bears therefore manage the Three Outside Down which we studied in last week's post.
Position of the STS on the EOW, shows the Bull failure #4.

200 DMA on the EOD #5 - and the bottom channel line (green) provide support last week.

Price falls short of the Feb'13 month close of 5693 - March'13 closes at 5683 - 'Three Outside Down' Triggered #1.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

50 SMA and 200 SMA, convergence towards a death cross to be watched #5.

Getting above 5720, the 34 EMA on the Week Charts #3 - is important for Bulls to shoot for some weekly green - despite the Bearish pattern studied above.

Cross or deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA to be watched #5.
Bullish divergence seen on the MACD #6 - helps a pull back.
Getting above the 5 EMA on the EOM #1 and EOW #3 also - gives the Bulls some more power.
Crashing below the 200 SMA #5, gives the Bears the honey.

The Three Outside Down's effect in the long term and a bounce in the short term seem to be happening together ..

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 25 March to 28 March, 2013 - Higher !

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below

The Kumo Breakout: Strong Bullish Signal (B)

The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

The Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (cC)

Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K)

Last:
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (T)

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 28 March'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls resume the climb up, after last week's pause #2..

The Chikou Span #1, increases its distance to the price line.

The Oscillator #3 ticks up - divergence with Price continues.

Advantage continues with the Bulls.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bears need the index back below the cluster of supports MVWAP 34, Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen #2.

Bearish Divergence apparent on the Oscillator #3.

Bulls would look at keeping the advantage - keeping clear of the Ichimoku Indicators.

Bears continue to wait for a reversal and getting below the Tenkan Sen - Bulls seek new highs..

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 22 March to 28 March, 2013 - Bull Prayer Answered..

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below:

The Senoku Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (Ss)

The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (T)

The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)

The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

The Tenkan Sen Cross: Bearish Signal (Te)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (K)

New:

The Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (Cc)

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 28 March'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls have a better week and an answer to their prayers #1 & #2.

Oscillator continues to tick down #3.

Chikou Span deflects after the hair thin Bearish Cross and now can even be called a Bullish Deflection #1.

A Bullish Chikou Span Cross / Deflection, at this stage, if it can be held by the Bulls, marks a reversal...

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Getting above the Kijun Sen next Bull task #2.

Chikou Span staying above price line is must for Bulls #1.

A Bearish Cross of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #2, is on unless Bulls take off from here and reach Feb'2013 levels...

Keeping above the Chikou Span, if Bulls reach Feb'2013 levels in the coming week - they would avoid a Bearish Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen Cross.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.