Trade, Live and Thrive: 12/02/12

Sunday, December 2, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 26 November to 30 November, 2012 - Bulls have close shave

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price) (or) EOM Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - 30 November, 2012

Above is the Month Chart - EOM - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price) (or) EOW Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - 30 November, 2012

Above is the Week Chart - EOW - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011, onward.

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move) (or) EOD Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - 30 November, 2012

Above is the Day Chart - EOD - Channel analyzing Data from Sept'2012, onward.

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls avert a Three Inside Down #1, with the last candle (November) closing just above the October Close - That was a close one :)
Bulls also close it above the 5 EMA (#1) on EOM and MVWAP 34 (#5) on the EOD.
Bulls have their nose ahead and into the EOW channel #3.
%D and %K on the STS #2 look like they have crossed bearishly after all.

Last week saw the Bulls maintain status 'quo on the medium term, and the Month Close retains Bull control of the Long Term Charts.

Looking forward into the next Week:

Averting a Bearish Three Inside Down #1 - gives the Bulls relief.
Bulls need to follow this up with the 5 EMA (# 3) crossing above the 13 SMA - a deflection however would show us that the Bears have the edge.
Keeping inside the EOW channel #3 - Bulls keep hopes alive.
Slipping out of the EOW channel #3 or more important below the MVWAP 34 on the EOD #5 - Bears have a clear run back to the '23.6% Fibonacci retrace of the Oct'07 High and Mar'09 Low' #1.

Bulls retained the edge by a whisker - now to see if the Bears can wrest the advantage back.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 26 November to 30 November, 2012 - Bears lose Fort

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 30 November, 2012

Above is the Month Chart - EOM - analyzing Data from 2008 onward.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 30 November, 2012

Above is the Week Chart - EOW - analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward.

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 30 November, 2012

Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from July 2012, onward.

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls break through the Bear Fort and our mark of 5650, early in the week and some Settlement short covering sees them sprint ahead to new Highs.
The 5 EMA and 13 SMA crossing bullishly on the short term chart #5, gave early indication of the Bull resolve.
MACD #6 - pops above the center line.
STS staying in oversold and may rendezvous with the resistance line #4 again.

The Nifty has gone Beta Bullish relative to the World Indices - Keeping this going in December would bring in a Happy New Year.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

The next resistance on the EOD #5 is seen as the Intra year high of 2011.
The red channel top of the EOD channel is the immediate support #5.
Resistance on the Indicator #4 present.
Red Channel Top #3 - next target for the Bulls.
Short Fuse indicator #2, to the watched for how it opens in December.

With the World Indices having a more muted close to the month, in comparison to the Nifty - one needs continued supply of local cues to keep the Bullish momentum going.

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Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.