Trade, Live and Thrive: 12/09/13

Monday, December 9, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bears Nose in - Week 2 of December 2013.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 06 Dec'13

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 06 Dec'13

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 06 Dec'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Bullish 'Three Inside up' #M1, on the Long Term Charts kept November green - last week bears ensure no new ATH.

Support & Resistance:

Index falls out of Day Channel #D1, Pulls back from Support to Channel Bottom.
MVWAP 34 on the EOD #D1 was the support last week.

Moving Averages:

Bulls keep December candle clear of the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1.
5 EMA slides below the 13 SMA after Bears strike with a Cross #D1.

Indicators:

RSI 13, stays in the overbought #W2.
Month Chart Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.

Wrap:

Bears nose into the Bull Party and get the 5 EMA below the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1..

Looking forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

Long Term Chart's Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) #M1 - still active.

Support & Resistance:

34 MVWAP and 200 SMA on the Short Term Chart are Support for the Bulls, while the 'All Time High' Line and the Channel Top #W1 are resistances.

Moving Averages:

Keeping below the 5 EMA on the EOD #D1 for all of last week - shows momentum loss for Bulls.
Failure of the Bears to restrict the Bull Pull back (Study here, here or elsewhere) below the EOD Channel (pink) #D1 - could result in a Bullish re-cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA and these two give us direction going forward.

Indicators:

Stochastic 34 3 4 heading to the oversold, works for the Bears #D1

Wrap:

Bulls want to use the 'Three Inside Up' #M1, to stay green - Bears hope to take the Index below the 34 MVWAP #D1.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Shooting Star Hang - Week 2 of December 2013.

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 06 Dec'13

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls have a red week after 'shooting star' week #W2.
Senoku Span A & B flatten #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrow even as both flatten #W2.

Wrap: Bulls' shoot for the Stars 'Hangs' below the ATH.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bulls keep index above Kijun Sen, Chikou Span flat #W1.
Narrowing gap between the Senkou Span A&B (Thicker Kumo = stronger resistance) a consolation for Bears #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrow - cross helps Bear cause #W2.

Wrap: Bulls look to regain momentum and 'Hang' with the stars while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen slips below the Kijun Sen soon #W2.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Clear above 13 - Week 2 of December 2013.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 06 Dec'13

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 06 Dec'13

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 06 Dec'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Bulls fail to capitalize on the long term 'Three Inside up' #M1 - bears claim honors for November.
November's candle close to being a Hanging man.

Support & Resistance:

Bulls keep Index above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' #D1.
Bulls gain above the 13 SMA on EOW #W1, 5 EMA was Support.

Moving Averages:

EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bullishly in a Golden Cross #D1.
Bulls find momentum above the 5 EMA (Weekly) #W1 to progress towards the ATH.

Indicators:

STS bounces off resistance line #W2 which was a strong support for Bulls as expected.
Divergence (study) of the TRD to Price from last ATH (Oct 2011) to this ATH (Oct 2013) apparent #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls retain control of all Screens - Bears fail at the Daily 5 EMA #D1 and Weekly 5 EMA #W1.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart still active #M1.
Hanging man (study here, here or elsewhere) candle's effect, now influences the above.

Support & Resistance:

34 EMA and Channel Mid line are Good Supports #D1.
Week channel top #W1 remains a pretty decent resistance for Bulls.

Moving Averages:

Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can give the Bulls verve to attempt a new ATH.
Keeping above the 5 EMA on the EOW (6160), #W1, Bulls retain momentum to attempt another attack on the ATH #W1.

Indicators:

MACD and its MA move up, after a Bullish cross and deflection off the zero line #D1.

STS keeping above its support line, works for the Bulls #W2.

Wrap:

Bulls seek to keep clear of the 13 SMA EOW and attempt another attack on the ATH - Bear hope hangs on the Hanging Man candle's effect #M1.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Another ATH shot - Week 2 of December 2013.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 06 Dec'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

After the retake of the Tenkan Sen, Bulls head to the ATH with another green week #W2.
Senkou Span gap widens making for a thicker Kumo #W3.

Wrap: Bulls stay above the Tenkan Sen an head for the ATH.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Chikou Span keeping above the Price Line critical for Bull move up #W1.
Bulls need to stay above the Tenkan Sen to remain in the game #W2.
Thicker Kumo means future support for Bulls if the Index is above the Kumo then #W3.

Wrap: Bulls with the deflection of the Chikou Span off the Price line should make another go at the ATH - Bears look to get below the Tenkan Sen #W2.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.