Trade, Live and Thrive: 07/14/12

Saturday, July 14, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 09 July to 13 July, 2012 - Dojied Green..

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move) (or) EOM Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - 13 July, 2012

Above is the Month Chart - EOM - for analyzing Data from mid 2009 onward.

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - 13 July, 2012.

Above is the Week Chart - EOW - for analyzing Data from Q1 2012 onward.

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move) (or) EOD Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - 13 July, 2012.

Above is the Day Chart - EOD - for analyzing Data from Q3 2012 onward.

Learning from the Past Week:(click for last post)

Index stayed above the 5 EMA on the EOM (1) thus denying the Bears their honey.

Negative divergence on the EOD (6), produced red candles most of the week(5).
The RSI action at (4) on the EOW, gave us an inkling of the Bull fight back last week.
The Bulls have used the MVWAP 34 on the EOW (3), to catapult up, late last week.

Looking forward into the next Week:

Staying above the 5 EMA on EOW (3), one sees the Bulls keeping their turf intact.
Reversing the Bearish cross of the 13 SMA and 5 EMA (on EOD at 5) on Monday, however gives the Bulls, momentum for the week.

Bulls would look at keeping up the pace from Friday last - to get back above last month's close and their 'Three Inside up' on the EOM. (1).
Bears would need to take it below their nemesis of last week - the MVWAP 34 (3)- to get back lost ground.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 09 July to 13 July, 2012 - Bears almost have it...

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 13 July, 2012

Above is the Month Chart - EOM - for analyzing Data from 2008 onward.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 13 July, 2012.

Above is the Week Chart - EOW - for analyzing Data from 2010 onward.

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 13 July, 2012.

Above is the Day Chart - EOD - for analyzing Data from May 2012, onward.

Learning from the Past Week: (click for last post)

As studied last week, we saw the Nifty fall below the 5279 mark, thus putting on hold the bullish 'three outside up'.(1)

Index also slipped below the 5 EMA on the EOD - mid week - to give the Bears the chart.(5).

Distance between the 200 & 50 SMA on the EOD - remained steady at sub 30 points last week - Neutral.

In short, the Bulls did not run on .. they slipped below the black channel top on the EOD and consequently fell hard and the... bears broke in.(5).

Looking Forward into the next Week:

On the EOW (3) and EOM (1), support on the 5 EMA - helps Bulls.

The Volume as indicated on (2) shows decline.

Bulls need to crack the red line resistance at (4) to make an impact next week.

The EOD shows (5) - bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA - needs to be watched.

The green channel bottom on the EOD would provide support to Bulls.(5)

As seen on (6), the bearish cross of the MACD lines, shows the effect of Bear action.

Keeping the index above the 5209 mark should give the Bulls a good shot at the red channel top on the EOW.(3)

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 09 July to 13 July, 2012 - Bull Stoic

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as marked on chart below:

Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)

The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

The Kijun sen cross: Weak Bearish Signal (K)

The Kijun sen cross: Strong Bullish Signal (K)

Tenkan Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (Te)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (T)

DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 13 July, 2012

Learning from the Past Week: (Click)

We suggested in our study last week that despite the last Bearish Signal the Bulls were in a good place.

Taking support at the MVWAP 34 and Kijun Sen as studied by us last week - and also the Tenkan Sen - the index ended the week with a green stoic Doji.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

The index is showing Bulls power even after a Bearish 'T' Cross

Unless the Bulls take it below the Tenkan Sen - they would see a green 'T' Cross soon.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 09 July to 13 July, 2012 - 'Peek a Boo' with the Kumo

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as shown on chart below:

The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (T)

Chikou Span Cross: Weak Bullish Signal (C)

The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Weak  Bullish   Signal (Te)
The Kijun Sen Cross:  Weak Bullish  Signal (K)
The Kumo Break-out:  Bullish  Signal (B)

BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 13 July, 2012

Learning from the Past Week: (Click)

After Peeking out of the Kumo last week - we have a retreat with the this week's red candle.

As studied last week - the Flat Kumo pulled back the index.

The Kijun Sen provided support.

Looking forward into the next Week:

The flat Senkou Span B - or flat Kumo - would attract the price to it.

So apart from other signals - one sees this as a factor for some weeks.

After freeing itself from this gravitational pull - index should take a direction.

Break-out from the Kumo then, would be fantastic for the Bulls or Bears.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.