Trade, Live and Thrive: 06/23/14

Monday, June 23, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Top Stop 2 - Week 4 of June 2014.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 20 June'14

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 20 June'14

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 20 June'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Strong Resistance holds index at Weekly Channel Top even as Bulls make a new ATH #W1.
Bears fail to follow through on the Bearish Harami on the EOW #W1.

Support & Resistance:

Index keeps above the 5 EMA on the Day charts #D1 and above the 5 EMA on the Weekly #W1.
Weekly Channel Top was resistance #W1.

Moving Averages:

The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, deflect to give Bulls a new ATH #D1

Indicators:

RSI 13 near the over bought #W2.
TSI continues holding above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls retain control of all Screens - Bears defend the EOW channel top #W1.

Looking forward into this Week:

Patterns:

Weekly Channel Top is resistance for the index (Study links here, here or elsewhere)

Support & Resistance:

5 EMA on the EOW #W1 at a Index reading of 1935 is support for the week, while the Week Channel Top #W1 remains resistance.

Moving Averages:

5 EMA and 13 SMA currently deflected Bullishly - needs to stay that way for Bulls to break channel top #D1.

Indicators:

Stochastic 34 3 4, staying back in the over-bought zone, works for the Bulls #D2.

Wrap:

Bulls want to crack the Weekly Channel Resistance #W1- Bear future lies below the 13 SMA on the Weekly charts #W1.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bulls Back - Week 4 of June 2014.

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 20 June'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls take support near Tenkan Sen to get back to highs #W2.
Bears get closer to Tenkan Sen at week's low #W2.
Gap between Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen and Senoku Span A-B widens #W2, #W3.

Wrap: Bull back to highs taking support near Tenkan Sen #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls have hopes of a new ATHs #W2.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
Bulls wary of the Chikou span bearishly crossing the Price line #W1.

Wrap: Bulls look to make new ATHs #W2, Bears want life below the Tenkan Sen #W2.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bears move it sideways - Week 4 of June 2014.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 20 June'14

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 20 June'14

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 20 June'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

'Medium Term', Three Outside up #W1 gains falter.

Support & Resistance:

13 SMA on the EOD #D1, cracked by bears.
R1 of the Monthly Pivot was the resistance #D1.

Moving Averages:

On EOD, the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, cross Bearishly #D1.

Indicators:

STS Pull Back (study) falters at the resistance (earlier support) line, but is still in the overbought zone #W2.
TRD nears the 76.4 % Fibonacci retrace #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls lose control of short term screen - Bears get second red week #W1.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Patterns:

Bulls had one of the best 'Medium Term', Three Outside up (Study links here, here or elsewhere) for gains.

Support & Resistance:

Support that bears want to reach & crack is now the 5 EMA on the EOW (7411) #W1.
The R1 of the Month Pivot 7650 #D1 remains the resistance that Bulls want to live above.

Moving Averages:

Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on and steady, even as index is clear above these SMAs #D1.

Indicators:

TRD Indicator keeping below the 76.4% retrace is good for the Bears #M2.
STS getting above resistance (earlier support) line, helps Bull Cause #W2.

Wrap:

Bears look to reach and crack the 5 EMA on the EOW, Bulls seek to get and stay above the 5 EMA on the EOD #W1.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Holds again - Week 4 of June 2014.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 20 June'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls take support just above Tenkan Sen for the 18th straight week #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap steady #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap steady #W2

Wrap: Bulls find support near Tenkan Sen #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Bear hope is that the Chikou Span, keeping current altitude, will meet the price-line, in a few months #W1.
Bulls want to keep the price line clear of the Tenkan Sen and make new ATHs #W2.

Wrap: Bears hope is to get the index below the Tenkan sen, Bull focus is to get back to ATHs #W2.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.