Trade, Live and Thrive: 08/26/13

Monday, August 26, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 19 August to 23 August: 2013 - Bears Channel Down

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 23 Aug'13

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 23 Aug'13

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from July 2013, onward - as on 23 Aug'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

The 'Three Inside Down' that we studied on the weekly charts takes Index lower - Bulls however bounce back to close in the Green #W1.

Support & Resistance:

Index continues to have the Day channel Top, Week Channel Top and Month Channel Top as resistances on the upside #M1, #W1 & #D1.
The White Month Channel Top Line sends back the Bulls for the current dip #W1.
We have a new Day Channel to study from this week #D1.

Moving Averages:

Bulls again defend the 13 SMA - Index Closes the week above the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
5 EMA and 13 SMA remain crossed bearishly on the EOD charts #D1.
On the EOW - 5 EMA and 13 SMA remain crossed bullishly but poised for a bearish cross #W1.

Indicators:

RSI 13 peeks above the 50 mark - MA looks like crossing above the RSI bullishly #W2.
Stochastic 34 3 4 (now on EOD) heads for the over bought #D2.
Oscillator (now on EOM) dips below oversold - see earlier dips too #M2.

Bears keep the Short Term Screen.

Looking forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

On the Medium Term Chart the Three Inside Down we studied earlier this month, is still on #W1.

Support & Resistance:

New All Time High and all the Channel Tops Red, Blue and White #D1, are the next resistances for the Bulls.The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support.
We continue to have the 34 MVWAP on the Day Chart #D1 and 34 MVWAP on the Week Chart #W1 as closer Resistance and Support respectively.

Moving Averages:

Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
5 EMA & 13 SMA on the Medium Term Charts #W1 - poised to cross Bearishly - to be watched.
Getting below the 13 SMA on the Week Charts - EOW #W1 important for Bears.

Indicators:

Oscillator #M2 keeping below oversold favors the Bears.
RSI crossing above its MA will work for the Bulls #W1

Bears look to the 'Three Inside Down' #W1 giving more gains, Bulls look to get moving above the 34 MVWAP on the EOW #W1.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 19 August to 23 August: 2013 - Takuri Time

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 23 Aug'13

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 23 Aug'13

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Apr' 2013, onward - as on 23 Aug'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

On the Medium Term EOW #3, the 'High Wave' Candle studied few weeks ago, gives the Bears a Takuri Week after a long Bear Run.
June's 'Hanging Man' Candle & May's Shooting Star on the Long Term EOM #1 Charts - gave Bears support from July End..

Support & Resistance:

The 50% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' stands last week #5.
Index cracks Day Channel and pulls back to its bottom #5 exactly.

Moving Averages:

50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bearishly in a Death Cross #5.
Index keeps above the important 200 SMA on the Week Charts #3.

Indicators:

'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 on the long term charts show Bulls slipping below the center line.
MACD Histograms diverge positive relative to price, MACD and its MA deflect last week #6.
STS #4 stays down after diving into the oversold after 18 odd months.

Bears ride the 'High Wave' #3 to a Death Cross #5, get a 500 point fall and now face Takuri Times...

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

Takuri Line #3 worth a study here or elsewhere.
'High Wave' Candle Pattern #3, studied 4 weeks ago still in play.

Support & Resistance:

The day channel bottom #5 is now resistance - for the Bulls.
The 50% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' remains support for the Bulls #5.

Moving Averages:

200 SMA and 50 SMA on the Day Charts remaining Bearishly Crossed #5 keeps the Bulls under pressure.
13 SMA and 5 EMA on the Long Term #1 are currently Bearishly Crossed (Index below 5655) it can Bullishly Deflect if Index gets above 5655 for August.
13 SMA and 5 EMA on the Short Term #5 Bearishly Deflected earlier - a Bullish Cross would be just the impetus for the Bulls to get back some ground.

Indicators:

'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 could see the Index bounce of its center line for a new Bull run if the Bulls get to stay above it from August.

Bulls want life above 5655 and a Golden Cross - Bears seek to close below the 34 EMA #1 and stay below the EOD Channel bottom #5.

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Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.