Trade, Live and Thrive: 07/07/13

Sunday, July 7, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 01 July to 05 July: 2013 - Bears Hold the Line

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 05 July'13

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 05 July'13

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 05 July'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Patterns:

'Three inside Down' on the Month Charts kept at bay, as the index stays above last month's close #M1.

Support & Resistance:

Bulls AGAIN bring up the index to the channel bottom #D1 - and get stopped in their pull back attempt.

Moving Averages:

5 EMA deflecting the 13 SMA, meet on the Medium term charts #W1 & we have a bullish cross of these MAs on the Day Screen #D1.
July uses the Long Term 5 EMA as support #M1.
Bulls close above the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1.

Indicators:

RSI crosses above its and its MA while below oversold #W2.
Oscillator nudges above the 50 mark #D2.

Bulls 'Pull back' to our identified resistance - Day Channel's Bottom Green Line #D1..and stop.. AGAIN

Looking forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

Bearish Harami on the Long Term Chart #M1 could evolve into a bigger Three Inside Down.
Bulls yet to clear off the Triple Top Threat conclusively ...

Support & Resistance:

Day channel's, bottom green line #D1 remains the resistance for the Bulls.
The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace - remaining around the last consolidation cluster #M1, is good for Bears.

Moving Averages:

Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
5 EMA & 13 SMA #W1 - Deflection is good for Bulls and Cross helps Bear Cause.
Getting below the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1 important for Bears.

Indicators:

#D2 above 50 and bullish cross at #W2, favors the Bulls.

Bears hope the Channel bottom LINE #D1 holds, Bulls call for a COMPLETE deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA #W1.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 01 July to 05 July: 2013 - Bulls get 3 outside up..

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) EOM Chart (or) Month Chart - each candle is 1 month's price action

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) EOW Chart (or) Week Chart - each candle is 1 week's price action

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) EOD Chart (or) Day Chart - line chart of daily closing Prices

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Patterns:

June month gave us a 'Hanging Man' Candle. We earlier studied May's Shooting Star which was profitable for Bears - these are on the EOM #1 Charts.
On the Medium Term however, last week's 'Bullish Engulfing' graduates into a 'Three Outside Up' and keeps the Bull camp going, as anticipated #3.

Support & Resistance:

Revised Day Channel shows Bulls nudging the Channel top #5.
The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' was resistance #5.
STS #4 shows where Bulls got support last week.

Moving Averages:

5 EMA and 13 SMA cross Bullishly #5.
5 EMA and 13 SMA in the Medium Term poised to cross Bullishly or deflect otherwise #5.
Index closes below 13 SMA on the Medium Term - last week ALSO #3.

Indicators:

'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 on the long term charts show Bulls a pip ahead..
Volumes falter #6.
MACD and its MA cross Bullishly and Histogram ticks positive #6.

Bulls use the 'Three Outside Up' #3 to remain in the Green another week..

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

The 'Bullish Engulfing' which turned into a 'Three Outside Up' can keep the Bull camp going some more #3.

Support & Resistance:

Revised Day Channel top and the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' are now resistance - to beat - for the Bulls #5.
The 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' is support zone for Bears to crack #5.

Moving Averages:

5 EMA and 13 SMA approach for a Bullish Cross or Bearish Deflection #3.
Keeping above the 200 SMA on the Day Charts good for Bulls #5.
13 SMA on the Medium Term - needs to be crossed by the Bulls to Progress #3.
50 SMA and 200 SMA, convergence towards a death cross to be watched #5.

Indicators:

'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 starts July in Bull zone - to be watched.
Volumes dipping for the up move, good for Bears #6.
STS resistance line can support Bulls for an up move #4.

Bears hope the combined effect of the Shooting Star and Hanging Man #1 will kick in soon - Bulls look forward to the Three Outside Up giving some more gains #3

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Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.