Trade, Live and Thrive: 06/23/12

Saturday, June 23, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 18 June to 22 June 01 2012 - Bears do it sideways..

Learning from the Past Week:

We had concluded last week's study, noting that the Bull Run was on pause, until the EOW's channel resistance and the 5 EMA on the EOM are cleared.

Last week's red candle, while closing above the EOW channel - did not make it past he EOM chart's 5 EMA.

Bears therefore have put up a strong fight last week.

Lets see what they will do next...

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move) (or) EOM Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - 22 June, 2012

We saw the Blue middle line of our EOM channel holding the Index (click) last month - and so it did.

Below the 5 EMA the current close of the Month's candle is weak.

Overall however the Bulls are in command of this screen.

The developing Bullish Harami of the last two candles above, is still on...

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - 22 June, 2012.

A clear pop above the channel top shows the Bull resolve of last week.

Close above the 5 EMA and the MVWAP 34 - add to above.

RSI looks like it can go below its MA - Bearish.

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move) (or) EOD Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - 22 June, 2012.

A strong show early in the week and a whimper towards the end - summarizes the Bull action last week.

Falling out of the day channel and supported by the week channel top - Bears moved it SIDEways last week.

Closing below the 5 EMA - but above the MVWAP 34 - the short term is in neutral zone.

Histogram is ticking down fast...

Looking forward into the next week:

Staying above the EOW channel (white) top - Bulls would stay safe.

Bears would want to keep the Index (EOD & EOM screen) below the 5 EMA.

Watch the RSI on the EOW.

One expects the Bears to press home their recently acquired advantage.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 18 June to 22 June, 2012 - Bulls on the Edge..

Learning from the Past Week:

We summarized our Triple Screen Technical Analysis of last week with the note that "the Long Term Bear and the Medium / Short Term Bulls would slug it out next week" click

As this week's candle tells us - Index did move higher and then down, but ended just 9 points away from the previous week's close.

Lets see this week's information...

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 22 June, 2012.

A minor increase from last week's close does not improve the month's candle.

However one can revisit the fact that, all three of our short term indicators are poised for a cross.

Which way is the moot point.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 22 June, 2012.

This week's candle although red - stands above the previous week's.

It is also above the 5 EMA - inherently strong.

If the Nifty closes above 5125 next week, the 5 EMA will cross above the 13 SMA - This is Bullish.

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 22 June, 2012.

An volatile week, saw a stale mate as the verdict.

Bulls finished strong as they were earlier - and above our short term MAs.

The 5 EMA and the 13 SMA look poised to meet and cross bearishly this week.

The MACD's Histogram has started ticking down.

Looking Forward into the next week:

Staying above the 5125 mark - Bulls can search for a Breakout above last week's highs.

Simultaneous Bearish cross (of 5EMA/13SMA) on the EOD and Bearish Deflection (of 5EMA/13SMA) on the EOW can take the index down fast.

Overhang of the Death's Cross remains - Next Golden Cross awaited.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 18 June to 22 June, 2012 - Bears eye a CROSS

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as marked on chart below:

Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)

The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (Te)

The Kijun sen cross: Weak Bearish Signal (K)

The Kijun sen cross: Strong Bullish Signal (K)

Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (Te)

And the 'Hot' zone of this week, marked '1'

DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 22 June, 2012

Learning from the past week:

Our concluding line of last week's study, was that the Index should stay above the Tenkan Sen (red line) (click)

It did not, and we had a red candle standing on the MVWAP 34.

The Oscillator is around the zero.2

Bulls would worry that we have a close below the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen. 1

Added to their woes, is the almost inevitable Bearish Cross of the Kijun Sen and the Tenkan Sen next week. 1

Looking forward into the next week:

Keeping above the MVWAP 34, may help the Bulls keep their turf for some more time.

The expected, Bearish Kijun Sen - Tenkan Sen CROSS - helps Bears consolidate their hold.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 18 June to 22 June 2012 - In the Kumo

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as shown on chart below:

The Kumo Breakout: Bearish Signal (B)

The Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (K)

The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (T)

Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (C)

Chikou Span Cross: Weak  Bullish  Signal (C)
The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Weak  Bullish   Signal (Te)
The Kijun Sen Cross:  Weak  Bullish  Signal (K)

BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 22 June, 2012.

Learning from the Past Week:

We concluded last week, with the expectation that, the Index should effectively penetrate the Kumo (click)

As one can see from the last candle - it has managed to get a head in.3

More important, it has maintained the close above the MVWAP 34 and the Kijun Sen.3

Oscillator is ticking up.4

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Flat Kumo appears couple of weeks down the line - good for Bulls.

Staying inside the Kumo, keeps the Bull run healthy for now.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.