Trade, Live and Thrive: 09/01/14

Monday, September 1, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Starry Highs - Week 1 of September 2014.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 29 Aug'14

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 29 Aug'14

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 29 Aug'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Long Term Bullish Engulfing forms - see the last two Month candles #M1.
'Opening White (Green in our chart) Marubozu' studied last week - works for the Bulls - #W1.
Evening Star possibility apparent on the Weekly charts #W1.

Support & Resistance:

Index rises along EOD channel's top line, even as it breaches 2K #D1.
Bullish cross/deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, stays on the EOW #W1.

Moving Averages:

Bulls close the week above all the MAs we track on all screens.

Indicators:

RSI 13 meanders in the 60s #W2.
TSI continues holding, above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

Wrap:

Bears still control no screens, Bulls get to a landmark new ATH.

Looking forward into this Week:

Patterns:

Possibility of Evening Star formation (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) on the EOW exists #W1.
Bullish Engulfing on long term charts can evolve into a 3 outside up (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) - to be watched for #M1.

Support & Resistance:

EOD channel Top #D1 and the ATH are resistances.
The 13 SMA on the EOD (1986 for Monday) is the Support Bulls would want to defend #D1.

Moving Averages:

The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, after a Bullish deflection, continue to help index higher #W1.

Indicators:

TSI holding above the Fibonacci level 76.4%, works for the Bulls #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls seek to defend the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1.
Bears look to continue to defend the EOD channel's top line #D1.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bulls on Second High - Week 1 of September 2014.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 28 Aug'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Saved by the Kijun Sen. Bulls clear the Tenkan Sen and reach the ATH #W2.
Gap between Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen flat #W2.
Gap between Senoku Span A-B flat #W3.

Wrap: Bulls bouncing off the Kijun Sen level up with the ATH #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls look for new Highs again #W2.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
ATH is stronger resistance on Bull's second visit #W1.

Wrap: Bulls want life above the ATH following the Chikou Span Deflection, Bears want to defend the ATH line again #W2.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bull Star - Week 1 of September 2014.

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) EOM Chart (or) Month Chart - each candle is 1 month's price action

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) EOW Chart (or) Week Chart - each candle is 1 week's price action

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) EOD Chart (or) Day Chart - line chart of daily closing Prices

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Last week's candle gaps up and creates a Evening Star Possibility #W1.
Earlier week's 'Above the Stomach' Pattern, gives the Bulls a new ATH #W1.

Support & Resistance:

Bulls keep above the 5 EMA on the EOD all week #D1.
Bears defend the EOD channel top after Bulls continue to make new ATHs #M1

Moving Averages:

The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD stay bullishly crossed to give Bulls continued dominance of all screens #D1.

Indicators:

MACD and its MA are Bullishly Crossed #D2.
STS stopped by its resistance line - but remains in the over bought #W1.

Wrap:

Bulls dominate all screen and make a new High, Bears defend EOD channel top line #D1.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Patterns:

This Week's Open is critical for Bears who hope for an 'Evening Star' (Study links here, here or elsewhere) #W1.
The earlier week's 'Above the Stomach' Pattern (Study links here, here or elsewhere) near the Highs, warrant a careful look #W1.

Support & Resistance:

Support that the Bulls have to defend is the 5 EMA on the EOD (7922 for Monday) #D1.
Index faces resistance at the EOD channel top line #D1.

Moving Averages:

Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - however the MA's are converging #D1.

Indicators:

STS slipping below the overbought, will work for the Bears #W1.

Wrap:

Bulls look to defend the the 5 EMA on the Day Chart and make new ATHs #D1.
Bears seek to defend the EOD channel top #D1.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bulls step up - Week 1 of September 2014.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 28 Aug'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls move up from recent highs to cross the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap even #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap also even #W2

Wrap: Bulls climb above recent Highs while above the Tenkan Sen #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

The Chikou Span, keeping current altitude, will need a couple of months to meet the price-line #W1.
Bears look to defend the ATH #W2.
Bulls would seek to hold above last week's lows #W2.

Wrap: Bears look to get the index below the Tenkan Sen and break recent lows , Bull focus is to keep above the Tenkan Sen to break the ATH #W2.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.