Trade, Live and Thrive: 06/16/12

Saturday, June 16, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 11 June to 15 June 01 2012 - Bulls run up to channel top..

Learning from the Past Week:

Bulls surged ahead last week - bouncing off the Middle channel line.

The confluence of support we identified on the EOD, the week before last - was the take off point for bulls (click).

Butting into the Channel top on the EOW - the Bulls need a strong push in the week to come.

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move) (or) EOM Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - 15 June, 2012.

The 5 EMA stopped the Bulls last week.

This Screen remains with the Bulls.

If the June Candle remains green then one sees a 'Bullish Harami' in place - and the next Bull charge?

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - 15 June, 2012.

The EOW Channel top stopped the Bulls last Week.

Staying well above the MVWAP 34 - Bulls almost made a channel break out.

The new EOW channel above - is the old EOD channel.

Failure to break above the Channel would mean continuation of the steep fall shown in the chart.

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move) (or) EOD Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - 15 June, 2012.

The new Day channel formed due to the recent price action is the fastest one in recent times.

Closing above the MVWAP 34 - one sees the Bulls stopped by the white EOW channel top line.

Staying within the yellow channel - Bulls could breakout big.

Bears would push for a re-test of the Blue Monthly Channel line.

Looking Forward into the next week:

The 5 EMA on the EOM chart and the Channel top on the EOW are formidable resistances.

Bull run on pause until they are cleared.

A potential Bullish Harami on the EOM needs to be watched.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 11 June to 15 June, 2012 - The Long Term and other Terms

Learning from the Past Week:

Our last weekend study looked at the Death's Cross on the EOD and the Bullish 'Three Outside Up' on the EOW. click and click.

We got both.

Death's Cross is long term in nature.

Three Outside Up is a more immediate, medium term in nature.

The net effect of these two signals would play out in the weeks to come.

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 15 June, 2012.

The Up-move of last week, brings the Month's candle's close above the 5 EMA and 34 EMA.

Were it not for the more popular Death Cross (EOD) - one would have called this screen Bullish.

As such, one now expects to see the 5 EMA cross bullishly above the 13 SMA - can happen this month above 5272.

We now look at the section marked 'EOW' and zoom into that price action below...

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 15 June, 2012.

The circle on the chart shows us the classic ' Three Outside Up' - We studied it in 'EOW' last week (click).

We also identified the support on the STS indicator - the week before.

The sum of the above would be a smile on the Bull's face, in the Medium Term.

The 13 SMA has crossed Bearishly below the 34 EMA.

We now take out the section marked 'EOD' to analyze as below...

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 15 June, 2012.

The simplified EOD chart shows us that the 'Death Cross' - 50 SMA going below the 200 SMA - is done.

While the long term Bull may stay away as a consequence, the short term Bulls had no reason to do so at the present stage.

The MACD is ticking into the plus.

Looking Forward into the Next Week:

The overhang of a Death Cross would be felt on the Index in due time.

Meanwhile the Bullish Pattern on the EOW should play out.

5272 would be a achievement for the Bulls before the month close.

So one sees that the Long Term Bear and the Medium / Short Term Bulls would slug it out next week.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 11 June to 15 June, 2012 - Freed from Flat Kumo effect..

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as marked on chart below:

Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)

The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (Te)

The Kijun sen cross: Weak Bearish Signal (K)

The Kijun sen cross: Strong Bullish Signal (K)

Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (Te)

DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 08 June, 2012

Learning from the Past Week:

As anticipated in our weekend study - the Index pulled out of the downward spiral (click).

Freed from the gravitational pull of the Flat Kumo (click) - it has moved up into Bull zone.

The cross of the Tenkan Sen is seen as a precursor to trend change. 1

The Oscillator continues to tick down. 2

Looking Forward into the next week:

Keeping above the Tenkan Sen the Index would aim for recent Highs.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 11 June to 15 June 2012 - Eyeing the Kumo

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as shown on chart below:

The Flat Kumo: Bullish Signal (Ko)

The Kumo Breakout: Bearish Signal (B)

The Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (K)

The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (T)

Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (C)

Chikou Span Cross: Weak  Bullish  Signal (C)
The Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak  Bullish   Signal (Te)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Weak  Bullish  Signal (K)

BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 15 June, 2012.

Learning from the Past Week:

After getting back into the Pink of Health (click) the Bulls are at the Kumo.

Earlier they made a Bullish Kijun Sen Cross and closed above the MVWAP 34, as anticipated in the last line of our weekend study (click). 3

The Oscillator has started inching up. 4

The Kumo as one can see from previous candles is strong resistance.

Looking forward into the next week:

If the index cannot effectively penetrate the cloud (Kumo) - it would be more consolidation or a drop.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.