Saturday, June 16, 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 11 June to 15 June, 2012 - The Long Term and other Terms

Learning from the Past Week:
Our last weekend study looked at the Death's Cross on the EOD and the Bullish 'Three Outside Up' on the EOW. click and click.
We got both.
Death's Cross is long term in nature.
Three Outside Up is a more immediate, medium term in nature. 
The net effect of these two signals would play out in the weeks to come.

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:   
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 15 June, 2012. 

The Up-move of last week, brings the Month's candle's close above the 5 EMA and 34 EMA.
Were it not for the more popular Death Cross (EOD) - one would have called this screen Bullish.
As such, one now expects to see the 5 EMA cross bullishly above the 13 SMA - can happen this month above 5272.
We now look at the section marked 'EOW' and zoom into that price action below...

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:    
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 15 June, 2012.

The circle on the chart shows us the classic ' Three Outside Up' - We studied it in 'EOW' last week (click).
We also identified the support on the STS indicator - the week before.
The sum of the above would be a smile on the Bull's face, in the Medium Term.
The 13 SMA has crossed Bearishly below the 34 EMA.
We now take out the section marked 'EOD' to analyze as below...

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices  (or) EOD Chart: 
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 15 June, 2012.

The simplified EOD chart shows us that the 'Death Cross'  - 50 SMA going below the 200 SMA - is done.
While the long term Bull may stay away as a consequence, the short term Bulls had no reason to do so at the present stage.
The MACD is ticking into the plus.

Looking Forward into the Next Week:
The overhang of a Death Cross would be felt on the Index in due time.
Meanwhile the Bullish Pattern on the EOW should play out.
5272 would be a achievement for the Bulls before the month close.
So one sees that the Long Term Bear and the Medium / Short Term Bulls would slug it out next week.