Recap:
After bouncing off the Wall the previous week, Nifty fell with world markets early on (click), and took support at the April Wall (5180).
World markets went the Bull way, for the rest of the week - Nifty did not.
The Nifty sits almost exactly on the new Wall, 5189 (FYI, Wall = Approx Hawala - click).
This cat on the Wall feeling, usually is precursor to a big move.
Let us check out what that could be.
Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:
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| CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 27 April, 2012. |
Holding above the 34 EMA, Bulls still have control of the long term.
Staying below our mark of 5220 (click and see 3rd point of EOM study) the Bullish cross of our short MAs is not a given.
This Bullish Cross was our anticipated cue for a long term Bull market.
This Bullish Cross was our anticipated cue for a long term Bull market.
If the Nifty stays below the close of March 2012, the last three candles will make a Bearish "Three inside down".
A quick study of this pattern is a good idea, since Month ends tomorrow.
Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:
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| CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 27 April, 2012. |
With a clear close below our mark the 34 EMA, this screen has gone Bear.
Also, last week we observed the Bearish cross of the 5 EMA/13SMA.
The action on the Stochastic indicator is also Bearish, with a deflection of the two lines seen.
Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart with closing prices in a line graph (or) EOD Chart:
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| CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 27 April, 2012. |
Nifty closed below all the MAs that are marked on the screen, except the 200 DMA.
Bearish cross of the 34 EMA below the 200 DMA is our cue for a Long Term Bear Market.
For example; if the Nifty loses 50 odd points every trading day from now - above bearish cross will take about 10 days.
MACD, remains sub-zero. Histogram is negative and MA has crossed bearishly.
Looking Forward:
Staying above the Wall, the Nifty can attempt a move to the Fib 76x.
Strength for the Bulls, is above the 34 EMA on EOD and EOW.
Range to break, is shown on the EOD.
Below the wall, the Bears can take it down real fast - world cues willing.
Below the wall, the Bears can take it down real fast - world cues willing.
