CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 02 July to 06 July, 2012 - Bulls surge and pause..

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart: 

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 06 July, 2012

Above is the Month Chart - EOM - for analyzing Data from 2008 onwards.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart: 

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 06 July, 2012.

Above is the Week Chart - EOW - for analyzing Data from 2010 onwards.

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices  (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 06 July, 2012.

Above is the Day Chart - EOD - for analyzing Data from 2012 start, onwards.

Learning from the Past Week: (click)
As studied last week, we see the possibility of the bullish 'Three Outside up' on the EOM "7"  
The EOD chart shows the break above the old channel (black) and hold below the red top of the current channel. "1"
Staying above the 5 EMA of the EOW - we saw the Nifty scaling new heights "4"



Looking Forward into the next Week:
The bullish 'Three Outside up' on the EOM "7"  fails, if the Nifty falls below last month's close i.e. 5279. 
We had analyzed and called the Dawn for Bulls (click) when the Nifty was at the Blue center line of the EOW channel "4" & "6"- now its nudging the channel top - Bears Next?
Volume for this rise has been less than that of the previous rise."5" - Not good for Bulls.
Staying above the 5 EMA and the Black Top of the old channel on the EOD "1" - We expect the Bulls to run on...
The Distance between the 50 and 200 SMA was contracting last week "2" - good for Bulls.
Keeping above the 5279 mark next week or better still, the 5 EMA on the EOD one expects the Bulls to carry on ... else the Bears break in ...

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 25 June to 29 June, 2012 - Bulls come thro'

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 29 June, 2012

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 29 June, 2012.

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices  (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 29 June, 2012.

Learning from the Past Week(click):

On the EOM one sees that the 5 EMA would cross above the 13 SMA as and when the July candle appears - this as we studied was consequent to the close above 5272 (click)

As noted last week, Bulls kept it above 5125 and took the index up.
The Death Cross is still a factor - gap between the 50 & 200 SMA is widening everyday.

Looking forward into the Next Week: 
The last two candles on the EOM, shows us a Bullish Engulfing - which can evolve into a seriously bullish 'Three outside up'.
The price has reached the channel top on the EOD and one expects resistance going forward.
Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOW - Bulls should keep their turf intact.

EOD Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 14 06 2012 - Bears Nudge Ahead...

Our previous EOD Analysis, examined the prospects of the Bulls and the Bears (click). 

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action  (or) EOD Chart: 

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 14 June, 2012.

The Bearish Cross of the 50 SMA below the 200 DMA is good as done - see 'simplified' chart above. Death Cross happens tomorrow.. 

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:    

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 14 June, 2012.

The Bullish 'Three Outside Up' candle stick pattern (circled above), is off again - because the Nifty closed today at 5055 - just below last week's EOW close of 5068.

Bulls need to see this week's candle close comfortable above 5068 to stay in the game with above pattern.

Long Term is with the Bears now ... until the next Golden Cross....

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 23 April to 27 April, 2012 - Cat on the Wall..

Recap:

After bouncing off the Wall the previous week,  Nifty fell with world  markets early on (click), and took support at the April Wall (5180).

World markets went the Bull way, for the rest of the week - Nifty did not.

The Nifty sits almost exactly on the new Wall, 5189 (FYI, Wall = Approx Hawala - click). 

This cat on the Wall feeling, usually is precursor to a big move.

Let us check out what that could be.

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart: 

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 27 April, 2012. 

Holding above the 34 EMA, Bulls still have control of the long term.

Staying below our mark of 5220 (click and see 3rd point of EOM study) the Bullish cross of our short MAs is not a given.
This Bullish Cross was our anticipated cue for a long term Bull market.

If the Nifty stays below the close of March 2012, the last three candles will make a Bearish "Three inside down".

A quick study of this pattern is a good idea, since Month ends tomorrow.

http://www.thepatternsite.com/ThreeInsideDown.html

http://www.moneycontrol.com/glossary/technicals/what-is-three-inside-down-bearish-reversal-pattern_1683.html

http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/candlestick_patterns/bear/three_inside_down_bearish.cfm

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart: 

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 27 April, 2012.

With a clear close below our mark the 34 EMA, this screen has gone Bear.

Also, last week we observed the Bearish cross of the 5 EMA/13SMA.

The action on the Stochastic indicator is also Bearish, with a deflection of the two lines seen.

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart with closing prices in a line graph (or) EOD Chart:  

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 27 April, 2012.

Nifty closed below all the MAs that are marked on the screen, except the 200 DMA.

Bearish cross of the 34 EMA below the 200 DMA is our cue for a Long Term Bear Market.

For example; if the Nifty loses 50 odd points every trading day from now - above bearish cross will take about 10 days.

MACD, remains sub-zero. Histogram is negative and MA has crossed bearishly.

Looking Forward:

Staying above the Wall, the Nifty can attempt a move to the Fib 76x.

Strength for the Bulls, is above the 34 EMA on EOD and EOW.

Range to break, is shown on the EOD.
Below the wall, the Bears can take it down real fast - world cues willing.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 16 April to 20 April, 2012 - Bulls bounce off the Wall..

Recap:

We went into last week with a Bearish Overhang (click), Bulls had their back against the wall...

Bulls bounced off the Wall (click) and then despite Global Bear pressures (click) ended the week neutral.

One prospect for the coming week, was discussed and studied (click).

Lets analyze the Index with our three screens, to learn what lies ahead...

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 20 April, 2012. 

The RBG channel on the screen above, covers price action spanning 3 plus years.

The 34 EMA has been good support for the Monthly candles recently.

The 5 EMA's Bullish cross to above the 13 SMA is a given next month, if the Index stays above 5220. 

Bulls continue to be in charge of this long term screen.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart: 

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 20 April, 2012.

We zoom into the Price action with the above screen and analyze the last 15 odd months.

We studied the Bullish Engulfing (last two candles), and the hope for a Three Outside Up (click) on Friday last.

We notice that the 5 EMA has bearishly crossed below the 13 SMA, and the price faces resistance at 13SMA.

Support at the 34 EMA, has been consistent.

Neither Bulls nor Bears, can claim supremacy on this screen.

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart with closing prices in a line graph (or) EOD Chart: 

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 20 April, 2012.

The screen above has an RBG channel with 4 odd months data. We look to pinpoint the immediate action points here.

MACD remains sub zero even as the Histogram has started ticking in the plus.

Index seems to have made another Lower High, one has to see if the previous Higher Low will sustain.

After the Bullish crossovers and channel breaks (click) we have a 'Throwback' to Channel top (look through the free reference links below for more on this).

Throwbacks and Pullbacks:

http://piphut.com/2010/05/pullbacks-and-throwbacks/

http://www.activetradermag.com/index.php/c/Trading_Strategies/d/Throwbacks_and_pullbacks

Looking Forward:

Staying above the 34 EMA(EOD) is critical for Bulls.

The candle patterns on Nifty and Sensex (studied below) on EOW give the Bulls hope.

Bears have used global cues to beat back the Bulls recently - one needs to watch that.

Settlement week again and the sentiment seems to be changing towards the Bulls albeit mildly.

The BSE 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 16 April to 20 April 2012 - Bulls Pierce thro'

......Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction:

We do an weekly Ichimoku study, to complement our 'Triple Screen Technical Analysis', of the markets we study.

When taking the 'weekly' time frame, to use the Ichimoku Cloud, we need to consider...

The standard settings for an Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart are 9, 26, 52 and are used on EOD charts.  

When Ichimoku was created back in the 1930s, a trading week was 6 days long.  So we have one and a half week(9), one month(26) and two months(52). 

Now that the trading week is 5 days, we should actually use 7,  22 and 44 instead. 

However, the majority of systems, worldwide, still use the old settings 9, 26, 52. 

We need to study markets, on a weekly basis on this Blog.  

How do we fit 52, 26 and 9 into that need?  With one candle being one week?

There are 52 weeks in a year, 26 weeks form two quarters (or a half year) and 9 weeks equal about 2 months.  Fits the old logic - albeit differently.

Presto, we have a longer term view with the same settings!

So, if you like to move off the beaten track, for a change...read on...

Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - purple line,

Kijun Sen - blue line, 

Senkou Span A - black line, 

Senkou Span B - grey line, 

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Useful resources (free) from the Web:

http://www.freestockcharts.com/

http://www.kumotrader.com/ichimoku_wiki/index.php?title=Main_Page

BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 20 April 2012  

Last 6 Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart above:

1. Senkou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (S)
2. Chikou Span Cross: Weak Bullish Signal (C)
3. The Kijun sen cross: Weak Bullish Signal (K)
4. The Flat Kumo: Bullish Signal (Ko)

5. The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bullish Signal (T)
6. The Kumo Breakout: Bearish Signal (B)

Also marked with the blue arrows see...

2: The Chikou Span (purple line) has deflected off the price line, instead of crossing bearishly below it .. This is Bullish. 

3: The last candle has moved back into the Kumo - refer the Bearish Kumo breakout (B) 

3: Just as in last week, the Price is above the Kijun Sen and M VWAP 34 -  This is Bullish .

3: The last two candles form a Piercing Pattern (Bullish). FYI, we studied earlier (click) that the Nifty showed a Bullish Engulfing with the last two candles, at this same time frame.

4. A Bullish Senkou Span cross seems imminent - may be neutral. 

Here are some free reads for the weekend on the Pattern above...
http://www.thepatternsite.com/Piercing.html
http://www.moneycontrol.com/glossary/technicals/what-is-piercing-line-bullish-reversal-pattern_1680.html

Conclusion: Bulls have wrested back the advantage and have more than an even chance for a move up.

EOW Technical Analysis, CNX Nifty - 20 April 2012 - Engulfed..

Nifty - End of Week - 20 April  2012 

We concluded our last Intra-week post, with the note (click) that 5285 was important from a weekly perspective because of  a "developing 'Engulfing Candlestick Pattern' - valid above 5285"

We got our close at 5291 and also our "Bullish Engulfing Candle Stick Pattern' as circled above.

Only wish the red candle was a little more engulfed....

Guess the market sometimes gives, but does not give :)

Anyhow one knows that the best continuation for this pattern, is the 'Three Outside Up Candle Stick Pattern"

Guess some weekend reads are in order, in the fond hope that above may fructify.

Bullish Engulfing

http://www.thepatternsite.com/BullEngulfing.html

http://www.forexkarma.com/candlestick-analysis.html

Three Outside Up

http://www.thepatternsite.com/ThreeOutsideUp.html

http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/candlestick_patterns/bull/three_outside_up_bullish.cfm