Sunday, April 22, 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 16 April to 20 April, 2012 - Bulls bounce off the Wall..

We went into last week with a Bearish Overhang (click), Bulls had their back against the wall...
Bulls bounced off the Wall (click) and then despite Global Bear pressures (click) ended the week neutral.
One prospect for the coming week, was discussed and studied (click).
Lets analyze the Index with our three screens, to learn what lies ahead...

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 20 April, 2012. 
The RBG channel on the screen above, covers price action spanning 3 plus years.
The 34 EMA has been good support for the Monthly candles recently.
The 5 EMA's Bullish cross to above the 13 SMA is a given next month, if the Index stays above 5220. 
Bulls continue to be in charge of this long term screen.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart: 
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 20 April, 2012.
We zoom into the Price action with the above screen and analyze the last 15 odd months.
We studied the Bullish Engulfing (last two candles), and the hope for a Three Outside Up (click) on Friday last.
We notice that the 5 EMA has bearishly crossed below the 13 SMA, and the price faces resistance at 13SMA.
Support at the 34 EMA, has been consistent.
Neither Bulls nor Bears, can claim supremacy on this screen.

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart with closing prices in a line graph (or) EOD Chart: 
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 20 April, 2012.
The screen above has an RBG channel with 4 odd months data. We look to pinpoint the immediate action points here.
MACD remains sub zero even as the Histogram has started ticking in the plus.
Index seems to have made another Lower High, one has to see if the previous Higher Low will sustain.
After the Bullish crossovers and channel breaks (click) we have a 'Throwback' to Channel top (look through the free reference links below for more on this).

Throwbacks and Pullbacks:

Looking Forward:
Staying above the 34 EMA(EOD) is critical for Bulls.
The candle patterns on Nifty and Sensex (studied below) on EOW give the Bulls hope.
Bears have used global cues to beat back the Bulls recently - one needs to watch that.
Settlement week again and the sentiment seems to be changing towards the Bulls albeit mildly.