Trade, Live and Thrive: 08/04/14

Monday, August 4, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - High Wave - Week 1 of August 2014.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 01 Aug'14

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 01 Aug'14

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 01 Aug'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Doji of previous week on the EOW chart, works for the Bears #W1.
Last candle on the EOD chart is a High Wave #D1.

Support & Resistance:

Breaking the earlier EOD channel bottom (see last week's post), Index dives below the weekly 13 SMA #W1, to halt just above the 5 EMA (1911) on the Monthly Screen #M1.

Moving Averages:

The weekly 5 EMA and 13 SMA, are poised to cross bearishly or deflect bullishly #D1.

Indicators:

RSI 13 slips below the over bought #W2.
TSI under pressure. to continue holding, above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls lose control of the short term screen - Bears force index back down, to near the monthly 5 EMA #W1.

Looking forward into this Week:

Patterns:

High Wave on the Short Term Screen is now active (Study links here, here or elsewhere).

Support & Resistance:

Current EOD channel Bottom and the monthly 5 EMA (1911) are the supports while the 13 SMA (1945) #W1 is resistance to beat, for the Bulls.

Moving Averages:

The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, will cross bearishly, if Index closes below 1921, this week #W1.

Indicators:

TSI holding above the Fibonacci level 76.4%, works for the Bulls #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls seek a deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, by closing this week above 1921 - Bears would want to see the first monthly close below the 5 EMA (EOM) after May 2012 #M1.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - YoYo & Fall - Week 1 of August 2014.

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 01 Aug'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

After an 8 week YoYo of green and red candles, Index dives below the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Gap between Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen decreases #W2.
Gap between Senoku Span A-B also moves down #W3.

Wrap: Bears crash Index below the Tenkan Sen #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Keeping below the Tenkan Sen - Bears target the Kijun Sen next #W2.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
Bulls wary of the Chikou span bearishly crossing the Price line #W1.

Wrap: Bulls want life above the Tenkan Sen, Bears want life below the Kijun Sen #W2.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bears below the wall - Week 1 of August 2014.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 01 Aug'14

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 01 Aug'14

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 01 Aug'14

Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

Last week's Bullish Three Inside Up, formed by a slender 10 point margin fails to deliver #W1.
July Month candle is a High Wave #M1.

Support & Resistance:

Bears defend the Day Channel Top #D1 and slip below the 5 EMA on the EOW #W1. Bulls keep it above the 50 SMA #D1.

Moving Averages:

The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD poised to cross bearishly #D1.

Indicators:

MACD divergence with Price for the 3rd consecutive wave gives Bears some honey, MACD moves below its MA #D2.
STS below its resistance line - but remains in the over bought #W1.

Wrap:

Bulls lose control of the short term screen after index keeps below the August Wall 7721 (Study), while Bears further keep it below the August Monthly Pivot 7667 #D1.

Looking Forward into this Week:

Patterns:

July monthly candle is a High Wave (Study links here, here or elsewhere), and its now active #W1.

Support & Resistance:

Bulls see support near the 13 SMA on the EOW (7517) #W1, while Index faces resistance at the Month Pivot 7667 #D1.

Moving Averages:

Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - however the MA's have initiated converging #D1.
5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD cross bearishly if index closes below 7767 in the next trading session #D1.

Indicators:

MACD divergence to Price works for Bears, while the MACD staying above its MA helps Bull cause #D2.
STS keeping in the overbought is good for the Bulls #W1.

Wrap:

Bulls look to defend the Day Channel Bottom #D1 and get above the 5 EMA on the EOW 7628 #W1, Bears look to keep below the August Pivot 7667 and break the EOD channel bottom #D1.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bears Back - Week 1 of August 2014.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 01 Aug'14

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bears defend recent Highs, and Index dives below the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap steadies up #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap also steadies #W2

Wrap: Bears send index below Tenkan Sen #W2.

Looking Forward into this Week:

The Chikou Span, keeping current altitude, will need a few months to meet the price-line #W1.
Bulls want to defend the recent Lows and get the index above the Tenkan Sen again #W2.

Wrap: Bears look to keep the index below the Tenkan Sen and break recent lows , Bull focus is to get above the Tenkan Sen to break the ATH #W2.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.