Trade, Live and Thrive: 06/16/13

Sunday, June 16, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 10 June to 14 June: 2013 - Bulls Hold Channel Again..

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 14 May'13

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 14 May'13

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 14 May'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Three inside down on the Weekly chart #3 - studied last week - continued to be in play.
Bulls hold the Short Term with a bounce off the green Day Channel Bottom #D1 once again.

5 EMA stays below the 13 SMA #D1.

RSI and its MA slip below oversold #W2.

The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace - remains at the last consolidation cluster #M1.

Ultimate Oscillator #D2 hovers just above the mid point.

EOW& EOM charts see the Bulls taking support on the 13 SMA #W1 and the 5 EMA #M1 respectively for the second week.

Bears stopped again by our identified support - Day Channel's Bottom Green Line #D1..

The Ellipses marked #M1, #W1 and #D1 indicate the hot spots on the long, medium and short term charts respectively.

As one can see - we are zooming into the action starting #M1 through #W1 and get up close in #D1.

Looking forward into the next Week:

Day channel's, bottom green line #D1 is support and the latest 'All Time High' #M1 the resistance for the Bulls.

Bulls would still want to clear off the Triple Top Threat conclusively ...

Getting the price, above the 5 EMA on the EOW #3, critical for bulls to get ahead.

Breaking the Day Channel's Bottom Green Line #D1 is what the Bears would want to do next...

The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace - remaining around the last consolidation cluster #M1, is good for Bears.

5 EMA crossing above or deflecting off the 13 SMA to be watched #D1.

Three inside down on the Weekly chart #3 - studied the week before last week - continues to be in play.

Bulls look at continuing the up move from the Day Channel bottom #D1 - Bear hope remain on the 3 inside down #W1, giving them a channel break.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 10 June to 14 June: 2013 - Bears rock on star power

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 14 May'13

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 14 May'13

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Nov' 2012, onward - as on 14 May'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Last month's Shooting star candlestick #1- gives the Bears their 2nd Red week in June - Index ends the week at the 200 SMA.

Support line on the STS #4, holds up the Bull as anticipated.

MACD histogram ticks up, while in the negative #6.

The short fuse indicator starts June at zero and moves lower #2.

13 SMA on the Long term charts #1 - supports the Bulls last week.

On the Weekly charts the 34 EMA #3, is where the index ended the week.
Finishing above the 5 EMA, 200 SMA and their confluence at 5808 #5, bodes well for the Bulls.

The i, ii, iii on the Long Term Charts #1, depict the three peaks Bulls made and Bears held.

Bulls hold up the Nifty at the 200 SMA #5.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bullish Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, in the short term to be watched for #5.
Bearish Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the Medium Term (5737) also to be watched for #3.

Bulls look to get above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the Jan'12 low to All time high #5.

50 SMA and 200 SMA, convergence towards a death cross to be watched #5.

Shooting Star Candle stick #1 studied the week before last week, is still in play.

Support line on the STS #4, can continue to hold up the Bulls.
Getting above the 50 SMA #5, critical for Bulls to get back into Rally mode.
5858 and 5959 are important levels for the Bulls to cross - while Bears eye the 5737 mark.

Bear hope remain on the Shooting Star #1 - Bulls see 200 SMA as take off for another go at the 'All time high'.

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Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.