Trade, Live and Thrive: 06/23/13

Sunday, June 23, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 17 June to 21 June: 2013 - Bears Break Channel.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 17 May'13

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 17 May'13

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 17 May'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Three inside down on the Weekly chart #3 - studied earlier - continued to bring the index down.

Bears get back the Short Term cracking the Channel bottom #D1.

5 EMA stays below the 13 SMA #D1.

RSI and its MA remain below oversold #W2.

The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace - remains at the last consolidation cluster #M1.

On the Short term charts 5 EMA moves above then goes below the 13 SMA last week #D1.

EOM charts see the Bulls taking support on the 5 EMA #M1 for the second week.

On the Week chart - 5 EMA close to sliding below the 13 SMA next week #W1.

Bears break our identified support - Day Channel's Bottom Green Line #D1..

The Ellipses marked #M1, #W1 and #D1 indicate the hot spots on the long, medium and short term charts respectively.

As one can see - we are zooming into the action starting #M1 through #W1 and get up close in #D1.

Looking forward into the next Week:

Day channel's, bottom green line #D1 is now the resistance for the Bulls.
5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - is the next available support for Bulls.

Bulls yet to clear off the Triple Top Threat conclusively ...

Moving the price, above the 13 SMA on the EOW #3, next task for bulls.

The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace - remaining around the last consolidation cluster #M1, is good for Bears.

5 EMA crossing above or deflecting off the 13 SMA to be watched #D1.

Three inside down on the Weekly chart #3 - studied earlier - continues to be in play.

Bear hope remain on the 3 inside down #W1, Bulls hope for a deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA #W1.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 17 June to 21 June: 2013 - Bears Roll on..

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 17 May'13

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 17 May'13

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Nov' 2012, onward - as on 17 May'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Last month's Shooting star candlestick #1- gives the Bears their 3rd Red week in June - Index ends the week at the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the Jan'12 low to All time high #5.

Support line on the STS #4, fails the Bulls.

Volume ticks up, for this down move #7.

The short fuse indicator, which started June at zero, continues to moves lower #2.

Bearish Deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, gives the bears momentum #6.
Bearish Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the Medium Term (@5737) also adds speed to the fall #3.

Bears move the Nifty down to the '61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the Jan'12 low to All time high' #5.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bullish Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, in the short term to be watched for #5.

Bulls look to keep above the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the Jan'12 low to All time high #5.

50 SMA and 200 SMA, convergence towards a death cross to be watched #5.

Shooting Star Candle stick #1 studied early this month, is still in play.

Bears take control the Medium Term and the Short Term Screens now.

Bear hope remain on the Shooting Star #1 - Bulls see support at the "61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the Jan'12 low to All time high" #5

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 17 June to 21 June: 2013 - Bears Nose in

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below

The Kumo Breakout: Strong Bullish Signal (B)

The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

The Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (cC)

The Kijun sen cross: Strong Bullish Signal (K)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (T)

Last:
Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (Te)

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 21 May'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for that post)

Bears Crash below the Tenkan Sen .. #2..

The Oscillator #3 ticks down.

Bulls close celebrations with 26 weeks spent above the Tenkan Sen #2 after bouncing of the Kumo #1.

Bears edge in ...

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bears need to hold the index below the Tenkan Sen #2.

Oscillator remaining below the High line, important for Bears #3.

Bulls would look at getting back the advantage - rising above the Tenkan Sen #2.

Bears eye the distant Kijun Sen #2 .... Bulls remain under pressure.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 17 June to 21 June: 2013 - Meeting for Deflection or Cross 6 - Surprise !

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below:

The Senoku Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (Ss)

The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)

The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

The Chikou Span Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (Cc)

The Tenkan Sen Cross: Bearish Signal (Te)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (K)

New:

The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (T)

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 21 May'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen lines Cross Bullishly #2.

Chikou Span remains below the price line #1.

Index stays below the Kijun Sen, Tenkan Sen, MVWAP 34 confluence #2.

Oscillator ticks down #3.

Price takes support near the Kumo #2.

Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen lines Cross Bullishly - exactly as studied in the last 6 weeks.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

A Bullish Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen Cross, appeared last week - despite the index sliding lower #2.

A Bearish Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen Cross now, may give the Bears a sneaky win #2.

Taking support near the Kumo, Bulls can attempt to get above the Kijun Sen, Tenkan Sen, MVWAP 34 confluence #2.

Tenkan Sen did move above the Kijun Sen making a Bullish Cross - to the relief of the hopeful Bulls and the chagrin of the bemused Bears...

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.