Sunday, June 3, 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 28 May to 01 June, 2012 - More Consolidation

Learning from the Past Week:
Above the 5 EMA (EOD), we said the Bulls as favorites, could move the Index to the 200 DMA - they did move it up, and stopped about 50 points shy of that mark.
Below the 5 EMA, the bears tried taking the Index below our lower mark, the Fibonacci 61.8 (EOD) - they also fell short by about 50 points..
That left us with the third option - more consolidation - and that was last week's flavor.
How about next week?

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:    
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 01 June, 2012. 

The Index closed last month with  a red candle as befitting the 'Three Inside Down' we studied (click).
Its below all the short term MAs that we track.
Bears hold the roost - momentum however is missing.
Notice the highlight on the CCI Indicator.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:  
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 01 June, 2012.

The last two candles show us a Bearish Engulfing.
We studied this in the previous post - along with its possible successor the Three outside Down.
Support on the 200 SMA and DMA continues as does the middle channel.
The STS Indicator shows us that its on a strong support.

 Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action  (or) EOD Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 01 June, 2012.

The first pink circle shows us the continued consolidation of the Index, after its last bottom.
The MACD Histogram is in plus territory,
The gap between the 200 SMA and 50 SMA is now 40 odd points  vis-à-vis  80 odd points last Friday.
5 SMA / 13 SMA cross has happened again - Bearish now.

Looking Forward into the next week:
On the EOW - the Bearish candle patterns studied and also the strong support for the Bulls are notable.
The Fib61x on the EOD, remains between the Bears and their honey as does the position of the 50 and 200 SMA.
The 34 EMA (EOD) on the upside and the 200 EMA (EOW) on the downside keeps the Nifty locked in for now.

Bears are the current favorites.
Updates at weekend.

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 28 May to 01 June 01 2012 - Middle Caves in..

Learning from the Past Week:
Our view last week (click) was that the Bulls had to keep the index above 1300 for May 2012 - They did.
We said that the Bears would attempt breaking the MVWAP 34 (EOW) - this also happened.
The middle line of our EOM chart - in blue color - caved in, to the bears.
The full effect of the Three Inside Down that we studied a month ago (click) - is seen with the red on the EOM chart.

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move)  (or) EOM Chart: 
S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 01 June, 2012. 

The STS indicator's stubborn stay in the oversold zone - keeps the Bulls on top in this chart.
MVWAP 34 is the next target for the Bears.
The last 3+1 candles show the 'Three Inside Down' and its result.
Keeping the Index below our Blue Middle line - the Bears have their toe into this screen. 

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart: 
S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 01 June, 2012.

The White Weekly channel lines shows, the complete touchdown of the Price line.
After almost perfectly touching the bottom channel line - one looks for a channel break here.
With Index below the MVWAP 34 - the Bears are the new owners of this screen.
The Bearish Engufing seen on the last 2 candles - adds power to the Bearish Three Inside Down on the EOM.

Some reads to refresh our memories on this pattern..and its successor the Three Outside Down
Bearish Engulfing

Three Outside Down

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move)  (or) EOD Chart:  
S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  01 June, 2012.

The highlighted zone, shows the confluence of resistance for the Bears.
A bounce here, would give the Bulls a choice of consolidation, or a bounce towards the Blue middle of the EOM.
Otherwise this screen, continues to be officially Bear, as observed last week.

Looking Forward into next week:
On the EOW one watches for the Bearish Engulfing, mutating into a Three Outside Down.
The EOD resistance shown should give early indication, as to how the week would pan out,
The (s)pain for the Bulls may be greeased over, by above Channel Bottoms.