Sunday, March 25, 2012

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 19 March to 23 March, 2012 - Channel bottom..

Last week (posted here), we figured that the US and European markets would fall, and this would put pressure on Indian markets. 
They did fall and we got red candles, on the S&P and Nifty, last week. 
We also tracked the market's moves with intra week, EOD updates. 
The Nifty ended below the crucial 34 EMA on the EOD charts. 
Where to next?

Nifty - End of Month Chart - 23 M arch 2012   
CNX Nifty 50 - Month Chart (each candle is 1 Month's price action): Long Term
This month's red candle is above the 5 EMA and is arguing with the 13 SMA, we find that the Month chart still presents a positive picture.
The developing 'Bearish Harami' on the last two candles, is the only small worry for the Bull.

Nifty - End of Week Chart - 23 March  2012  
CNX Nifty 50 - Week Chart (each candle is 1 Week's price action): Medium Term
A fifth red candle happened last week. 
The support was again near the rising 34 EMA. 
After a lower High in the previous week's Candle, we have a higher Low with last week's candle. 
Bulls can look for some relief staying above the 34 EMA (EOW).

Nifty - End of Day - 23 March  2012  
CNX Nifty 50 - Day/EOD Chart (closing prices of each Day in a line): Short Term
We posted in our last EOD analysis (here) that we were at channel bottom. 
As one can see, the Nifty seems to be taking support at the green line in the chart above. 
The last touch and go (5 EMA/13 SMA) resulted in the bearish crossover continuing. 
We are still below the 34 EMA.
The falling 34 EMA is above the 200 DMA.

Looking Forward: 
Staying above our channel bottom, the Nifty would aim for the wall at 5484. 
If the bottom fails, the next support is the 200 DMA, as marked. 
Settlement weeks usually produce some solid 'action time'. 
After 5 red weeks, if a relief rally is coming up, this is one such time.

The BSE Sensex 30 - Ichimoku Study - Week: 19 March to 23 March 2012 - Relief Green?

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart - 23  March 2012  
Quick Reference : 
The Tenkan Sen - red line
The Kijun Sen - blue line
The Chikou Span - purple line
The Senkou Span A - black line
The Senkou Span B - grey line
The Kumo - grey shaded area.

Recent Signals : Last week (click here) and Previous Week (click here)

We observed last week that the price had gravitated towards the flat Kumo (Senkou Span B) since Jan'2012, to reach its state of equilibrium. 
The space where we have this flat Span B is shown with 'H'. 
Kumo resistance has sent the price down and out of the cloud. 
As observed last week, the resistance of the last week's attempt (Senkou Span A), did send the price back again this week.
Another attempt at the Senkou Span B is expected within the width of 'H'. 
Price breaching the Tenkan Sen (red) is the first indication, of trouble for the above attempt. 
As one can see at  'I' the price has fallen below the red line. 
Staying above the Kijun Sen (blue), breaking above the red line and the 'Black' Senkou Span A are the critical tasks for the Bulls. 
In the mean time - the mood is cloudy for the Bulls and the Bears have all the power - just as it was in the last two weekly studies. 
About time we saw some 'relief green'.