Trade, Live and Thrive: 01/06/13

Sunday, January 6, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week:Week: 31 December to 04 January, 2013 - Bulls Break out...

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 04 Jan '13

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 04 Jan '13

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 04 Jan '13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

After the Bear Slide of the week before last - one suggested watching the MVWAP 34 #D1, on the Day Chart - retake of this MA by the Bulls early in the week was the first sign of a fightback.

The Bullish Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW #W1, also triggered the Bullish breakout.

EOW channel has been reoriented #W1 post the up move.

On the long term charts - one sees a close above 5 EMA #M1 and also see the %K & %D meeting for a cross #M2.

RSI stayed above the MA #W2 another sign we observed last week.

Last week saw the Bulls and Bears reverse dominance on the medium term and short term - Bulls with a huge green candle take top slot.

Looking forward into the next Week:

The Ellipses marked #M1, #W1 and #D1 indicate the focus areas on the long, medium and short term charts that we study this week.

As one can see - we are zooming into the action and get up close in #D1.

Channel top resistance #D1 is something the Bears would use, to pause the Bull run.

Once again the MVWAP 34 on the EOD, #D1 is something to watch.

STS position #2, in the oversold zone, indicate long term strength of Bulls - One watches the action of the %K and %D for clues to the Bull strength.

Bulls take over all the three screens and the Bears are left hoping for a fall from the short term Channel's 'red top line' #D1.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 31 December to 04 January, 2013 - Bulls make the charge !

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 04 Jan '13

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 04 Jan '13

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Nov' 2012, onward - as on 04 Jan '13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

As suggested last week - staying above our numbers 5870/80 the Bulls charged up (100 odd points).

The Three Outside up #1 gives the Bull, some rewards.

MACD and Signal lines cross Bullishly #5.

The EOD Channel's green bottom was used to stage the Bull charge, index is now near the channel's middle point #5.

The Short Fuse indicator starts Jan'13 with an uptick #2.

Staying above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high #1 - Bulls are set to make a new all time high.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Channel top on the EOW is near #3.

The 5 EMA 13 SMA re-cross on the EOD is a signal to watch #5.

Index staying above the 5 EMA on the EOW is critical for Bulls in the medium term #3.

Action of the STS is also worth a watch #3.

The performance of the 'Three Outside Up' #1 is also worth a study.

With all screens screaming green, Bears need help - channel tops on the EOD and EOW may help.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 31 December to 04 January, 2013 - Advantage Bulls

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below

The Kumo Breakout: Strong Bullish Signal (B)

The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

The Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (cC)

Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Weak Bearish  Signal (T)

New:
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K)

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 04 Jan '13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls did hold the Critical Tenkan Sen last Week #2.

We also have a range break to above the Kijun Sen #2.

The Chikou Span neatly deflects away from the Price #1.

The Senkou Spans slightly diverge away from each other #3.

The Oscillator ticks up #4.

The Bulls come back from the critical Tenkan Sen with a bounce, taking the index close to the Highs of last year.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

A Senkou Span Cross #3 - if it happens from this position - is still bad news for the Bulls.

Bulls now would look at a Bullish Tenkan Sen / Kijun Sen Cross #2.

Bears need the index back below the cluster of supports MVWAP 34, Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen #2.

Holding above the Kijun Sen, Bulls should look at taking out last year's high.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 31 December to 04 January, 2013 - Ahead and Some, Bull

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below:

The Senoku Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (Ss)

The Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (K)

The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (T)

The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)

The Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (Cc)

Last:

The Tenkan Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (Te)

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 04 Jan '13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls after a few weeks of ranging, trend up, above the Tenkan Sen #1.

Oscillator ticks even #2.

Bulls break the range of a few years and take the Sensex higher.

Looking forward into the next Week:

Staying above the Kumo - advantage is with the Bulls.

Bears get a life once the Tenkan Sen #1 is taken out on the way down.

Distant possibility of a Bearish, 'Kijun Sen - Tenkan Sen' Cross continues to be the Bear Hope..

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.