Trade, Live and Thrive: 11/04/13

Monday, November 4, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Long Term '3 inside up' - Week 1, November 2013.

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 01 Nov'13

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 01 Nov'13

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - Channel analyzing Data from July'2013, onward - as on 01 Nov'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

As studied earlier - August and September Candles form a Bullish Harami (Study Link here, here or elsewhere) #M1. October closes above September and makes it a 'Three Inside up'.

Support & Resistance:

The Month Channel Top (blue) resistance was cleared by the Bulls last week with a new ATH , new channel shown #M1 - This is current resistance.
13 SMA on the EOD was the support #D1.

Moving Averages:

Bulls slip below the 5 EMA on the EOD last week #D1.

Indicators:

RSI 13 remains below the overbought #W2.
Month Chart Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.

Wrap:

Bulls get the 'Three Inside Up' on the Long Term and make another new 'ATH'

Looking forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

October closing above September's close makes it a Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) - now to hold the line..

Support & Resistance:

34 EMA and 200 SMA on the Short Term Chart are Support for the Bulls, while the 'All Time High' Line and the 3 Channel Tops #D1 are resistances.

Moving Averages:

Slipping below the 5 EMA on the EOD #D1 - shows loss of momentum for Bulls.

Indicators:

RSI staying below the oversold, with its divergence to Price (arrow) #W2, plus for Bears.
Stochastic 34 3 4 staying in the over bought zone, works for the Bulls #D1

Wrap:

Bulls get the 'Three Inside Up' #M1, in October - Bears aim to keep the index below the 5 EMA #D1 .

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bull Peak again - Week 1, November 2013.

Dow 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 01 Nov'13

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls get higher and level up to previous peaks #W2.
Chikou Span still around the Price line #W1.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrow and steady #W2.

Bulls keep the advantage..

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bulls keep index above Kijun Sen, but to retain advantage they need momentum #W2.
Chikou Span's distance to Price line reduces - to be watched for cross or deflection #W1.
Widening gap between the Senkou Span A&B (Thicker Kumo = stronger resistance) is a concern for Bears #W3.
Narrowing gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen should worry the Bulls #W2.

Bulls look for momentum to rise above previous peaks while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen slips below the Kijun Sen #W2.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Golden Cross ! - Week 1, November 2013.

Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 03 Nov'13

Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 03 Nov'13

Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2013, onward - as on 03 Nov'13

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

As studied last month - August and September Candles form a Bullish Harami (Study Link here, here or elsewhere) #M1. October closed above September giving the Bulls a 'Three Inside up'.

Support & Resistance:

Bulls keep above the Channel middle on the EOD #D1 - which was support last couple of weeks.
All time High (ATH) #D1, was resistance last week.

Moving Averages:

EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA cross bullishly in a Golden Cross #D1.
5 EMA on EOW #W1 was the support for the Bulls.

Indicators:

STS reaches the over bought - resistance of the previous weeks is now support #W2.

Wrap:
Bulls flirt with the All time High bearing a Golden Cross ..

Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

October closing above September's close makes it a Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link here, here or elsewhere).

Support & Resistance:

The 34 EMA is last major support for the Bulls #D1.
Week channel top #W1 is a pretty decent resistance for Bulls.

Moving Averages:

50 SMA getting above the 200 SMA (at last!) #D1 makes a Golden Cross (study here, here or elsewhere) and gives the Bulls some verve to attempt a new ATH.

Indicators:

STS resistance line becomes a strong support on the way down #W2.

Wrap:

Bulls eye the 'All time High' after the Golden Cross #D1 - Bears dig in, to hold the ATH near the Week channel top #W1.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - The Bear Line Up - Bulls, 7th time lucky - Week 1, November 2013.

BSE 30 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 01 Nov'13

Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku, can be read at this link (click).

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

The Senkou Span A moves higher than Span B #W4 AND Tenkan Sen moves above Kijun Sen #W3 after 6 weeks stuck to each other. The 7th week turns Lucky for the Bulls.
Bears lose their last Line of defense and also control of the Medium Term Screen #W2.

Bulls make a new High #W2 and get two Strong Bullish Signals last week.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

The Bullish Senkou Span Cross #W4 and the Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen Cross #W3 give the Bulls control of the Medium Term Screen.
Bears get unlucky in the 7th week.
Chikou Span moves away relative to the Price Line - deflection or cross some time away #W1.

Bulls get to dominate the Medium Term.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.