Trade, Live and Thrive: 10/20/12

Saturday, October 20, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 15 October to 19 October, 2012. - Bulls hold fort.

S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price) (or) EOM Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Month Chart (EOM) - 19 October, 2012.

Above is the Month Chart - EOM - analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward

S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price) (or) EOW Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Week Chart (EOW) - 19 October, 2012.

Above is the Week Chart - EOW - analyzing Data from Q2-Q3 2012, onward.

S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move) (or) EOD Chart:

S&P 500 - End of Day Chart (EOD) - 19 October, 2012.

Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from Oct'2012, onward.

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls avoid a Bearish Three Outside Down (studied last week) - by a slim margin (c).

Bulls continue to hold the Price above the 13 SMA on the Week Chart (c) - despite falling below the 5 EMA and slipping out of the channel again.
Bears move it below the 5 EMA, 13 SMA & MVWAP 34 on the Short term chart (e).

The bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA happens, as anticipated last week, on the EOD (e).

Bears keep the RSI, below the oversold line (d).

Month candle remains red (a).

Looking forward into the next Week:

A bearish cross of the 5 EMA and the 13 SMA on the EOW is on the cards, for the coming week - unless the Bulls pull up the index back into the Week channel (c).

Taking it it above the 5 EMA on the EOD and EOW (c,e)- is critical for the Bulls.

Bears look to keep it below the MVWAP 34 on the EOD (d).

Position of the STS (b) indicator, shows Bull strength.

A Bearish Harami is in the making on the Long Term Charts (a) - unless the Bulls make the month's candle a green one.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 15 October to 19 October, 2012. - Bulls Hold on..

Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 19 October, 2012.

Above is the Month Chart - EOM - analyzing Data from 2008 onward.

Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 19 October, 2012.

Above is the Week Chart - EOW - analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward.

Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices (or) EOD Chart:

CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 19 October, 2012.

Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from July 2012, onward.

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls took support at the Blue Center line of the EOD Channel as anticipated (e).

A bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA (e) persists in a near Doji Week (c).

The Bearish Three Outside Down is kept at bay by the Bulls, in a - Last Day - Last Hour - squeak through to above the previous week's close (c).

The red Support-Resistance line gave support exactly as expected (d).
Bears fail again, at getting the Index below the 5 EMA on the Week Chart (c).
The short fuse indicator (b) remains turned down, indicating the effect of this month's candle, to-date.

STS in oversold (d) indicates Bull power.

Month candle remains red (a).

Looking Forward into the next Week:

A massive Pullback to the Monthly Channel's Green bottom line (a) - is the still the Bull agenda.

The 5 EMA on the EOD (e) looks ready to cross Bullishly above the 13 SMA.
Gap between the 50 SMA and 200 SMA on the EOD, continues decline.

Using the red support-resistance line on the on the STS (d), for a bounce back would be part of the Bull plan.

Getting the Index below the 5 EMA on the Week Chart (c) is critical for the Bears.

The Blue center line of the EOD channel (e) provides a place for the bulls to bounce back from.
The signal line's interaction with the MACD line (f) is worth a watch over the next week.

The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 15 October to 19 October, 2012. - Bulls Steady..

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below

Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)

The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)

The Kijun sen cross: Strong Bullish Signal (K)

Tenkan Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (Te)

The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (T)

DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud

DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 19 October, 2012.

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Chikou Span (a) - remains close to the price line.

The Oscillator ticks down, -ve divergence is persistent (c).

Support for index continues on the Tenkan Sen (b) like last week.

Looking Forward into the next Week:

The Chikou Span heading for the Price line (a) needs to be watched - bearish cross or deflection is on the cards.

Bulls again hold the Index on the Tenkan Sen, for the week (b) - take off from here is critical, as cross of this red line, is seen as an early indicator of trend change.

BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 15 October to 19 October, 2012. - Bulls Hold it..

.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click).

Quick Reference :

Chikou Span - pink line,

Kijun Sen - blue line,

Senkou Span A - black line,

Senkou Span B - grey line,

Kumo - grey shaded area,

Tenkan Sen - red line.

Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below:

The Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bullish Signal (Te)

The Senoku Span Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (Ss)

The Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (K)

The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (T)

The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)
The Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (Cc)

BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:

The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 19 October, 2012.

Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

The Thinning Kumo keeps the Bulls at Bay.

The Chikou Span remains within striking distance of the Kumo (a).

Oscillator ticks up (c).

Looking forward into the next Week:

Bears look to reaching the Tenkan Sen (b) to start making an impact.

Staying above the Kumo - advantage is with the Bulls.

Chikou Span (a) reaching the Kumo is what we need to watch out for next.

Welcome Read

The Trading methods used here are suitable for those who (like me) are always Learners in the World Market (never presuming Mastery).

One learns with 'Technical Analysis' using Moving Averages, Channels, Time frames, Pattern & Candlestick Analysis, Fibonacci, Ichimoku Cloud, Oscillators & other Technical Indicators.

To comprehend the Dynamics of any Market, Peer Wisdom suggests, that we show plenty of Patience, keep it real Simple and adopt tons of Discipline.

We therefore use the same framework 'Patiently' every week - 'Simple' Technical Analysis Tools are repeated - The 'Discipline' of keeping a Neutral view is maintained.

So welcome to my notes - posted here for my Friends and Family.

Some Quotes..

There are times when playing the stock market that your money should be inactive - waiting on the sidelines in cash - waiting to come into play. In the stockmarket - time is not money - time is time and money is money. Often money that is just sitting can later be moved into the right situation at the right time and make a vast fortune – patience – patience. Patience is the key to success not speed.

Jesse Livermore.

That's been one of my mantras - focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it's worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.

Steve Jobs.

Discipline is the bridge between goals and accomplishment.

Jim Rohn.

Favorite Quote

"Why do we trade?

To be sure, trading allows us independence, the opportunity to work for ourselves. Trading also offers the prospects of a lifestyle in which evenings and weekends need not be consumed by work. Some of us crave the competitive aspect of trading, doing fresh battle each day. Others approach trading as a puzzle to be solved, deriving a sense of intellectual achievement. Finally, there is income. A successful trader can make seven figures in a year—and many of the traders I work with are living proof of that.

So why do they trade? Once you have the money, all of trading’s lifestyle advantages could easily be yours. Needs for competition and intellectual stimulation could be met in so many other ways. Why do traders remain traders long after they’ve won the game?

The great professions are those that serve as personal playing fields. They are the arenas we choose to express and develop ourselves. In mastering a discipline, we cultivate self-mastery. In writing a poem or placing a large trade, we capture—in a single act—our vision of how we see the world at that moment.

The great occupations are great precisely because they are such meaningful playing fields. Long after we’ve earned fame and fortune, the calling remains to be more than we are, to return to the arena and do battle with our limitations. The profound urge to extend the human grasp is common to all the great callings. To run faster, to capture more beauty, to predict ever better: in no small measure, our work is our pursuit of the godlike, however fleeting.

Maybe it is our different images of the godlike that animate our career choices.In work we find something divine within ourselves. Whether as scientists, monks, or traders, we strive for those moments when we are just a little closer to perfection, a little nearer to immortality. That is why we trade"

.... Brett N. Steenbarger

Inspiration

The Parable of Talents...

14 For the kingdom of heaven is as a man travelling into a far country, who called his own servants, and delivered unto them his goods. 15 And unto one he gave five talents, to another two, and to another one; to every man according to his several ability; and straightway took his journey. 16 Then he that had received the five talents went and traded with the same, and made them other five talents. 17 And likewise he that had received two, he also gained other two. 18 But he that had received one went and digged in the earth, and hid his lord's money. 19 After a long time the lord of those servants cometh, and reckoneth with them. 20 And so he that had received five talents came and brought other five talents, saying, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me five talents: behold, I have gained beside them five talents more. 21 His lord said unto him, Well done, thou good and faithful servant: thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 22 He also that had received two talents came and said, Lord, thou deliveredst unto me two talents: behold, I have gained two other talents beside them. 23 His lord said unto him, Well done, good and faithful servant; thou hast been faithful over a few things, I will make thee ruler over many things: enter thou into the joy of thy lord. 24 Then he which had received the one talent came and said, Lord, I knew thee that thou art an hard man, reaping where thou hast not sown, and gathering where thou hast not strawed: 25 And I was afraid, and went and hid thy talent in the earth: lo, there thou hast that is thine. 26 His lord answered and said unto him, Thou wicked and slothful servant, thou knewest that I reap where I sowed not, and gather where I have not strawed: 27 Thou oughtest therefore to have put my money to the exchangers, and then at my coming I should have received mine own with usury. 28 Take therefore the talent from him, and give it unto him which hath ten talents. 29 For unto every one that hath shall be given, and he shall have abundance: but from him that hath not shall be taken away even that which he hath. 30 And cast ye the unprofitable servant into outer darkness: there shall be weeping and gnashing of teeth.

The Holy Bible: Matthew - Chapter 25.